A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

I usually wait until the current season is over or all but over to start next year's thread, but it does not make sense discussing 2022 on the 2021 thread, so here it is...

Here is a look at next year's projected 26 (Red) and 40 (Blue) man roster.

Free Agents:
ERod
Ottavino
Marwin
Robles
Santana

Projected Options not given:
Richards ($10M/$1.5 Mb/o)
Perez ($6M/ $500K b/0)
Andriese ($3.5M/ $250K b/o)

Projected opt out: Schwarber ($11.5M)

Projected Options given: Vaz ($7M)
Projected no opt out: JD ($19.4M)

2022 (4 projected FA signings- #2 SP, #2 RP, 1B, Utility IF'er):
(5) Rule 5 protected

SP: Sale, FA, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock, Seabold, Groome, Mata, Bello (5), Winckowski (5)
RP: Barnes, FA, Houck, Taylor, DHern, Sawamura, Brasier, Valdez
Rios, Bazardo
C: Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong, Ro. Hernandez (bubble?)
1B: FA, Dalbec, Cordero
2B: Arroyo Downs (5)
3B: Devers
SS: Bogey, FA
LF: Verdugo
CF: Kike, Duran. Jimenez (5)
RF: Renfroe
DH: JD


Any 3 from...
5th FA or 6th FA
Current 40 Man Bubble (all have options remaining): A Davis, Rosario, Potts, Arauz
Possible Rule 5 protected: Kutter Crawford, Victor Santos, Thaddeus Ward
Cole Brannen, Cole Cottam, Durbin Feltman, Frank German, Devlin Granberg. Kaleb Ort, Tyreque Reed, John Schreiber

The budget outlook is a little murky, due to JD's opt out and a few options that might be viewed as borderline (not by me). Here is a look at the lux tax numbers for 2022 (by cots):

Locked Up: $100.5M
25.6 Sale
20.0 Bogey
17.0 Eovaldi
16.0 Price
9.38 Barnes
7.00 Kike
1.50 Sawamura

Arbs (2021 salary) $24.5
10.5 Devers 2 of 3 (4.6) YES
5.00 Renfroe 3 of 4 (3.1)
2.50 Plawecki 4 of 4 (1.6)
1.50 Brasier 2 of 3 (1.3)
0.90 Cordero 2 of 3 (800K)
2.50 Verdugo 1 of 3 (650K)
2.50 Pivetta 1 of 3 (614K)
1.10 Arroyo 1 of 3 (582K)
1.00 Taylor 1 of 4 (581K)

Pre-Arb Keepers (on 40 man):
D Hernandez
P Valdez
Houck
Dalbec
Whitlock
Duran
Groome
B Mata
Y Rios
C Seabold
C Wong

Pre-Arb Bubblers (on 40 man):
A Davis
Arauz
Bazardo
Ro Hernandez
H Potts
J Rosario

Player Opt Out or Mutual Option: ($19.5M)
22.0 JD (19.4 projected no opt out)
10.0 Schwarber (11.5 m/o w 3 b/o) projected no option

Team Options (my projection) 2021lux tax): ($7M)
10.0 w 1.5 b/o Richards (NO) 10.0
6.0 w 500K b/o Perez (NO) 5.0
7.0 w 250K b/o Vaz (YES) 4.5
3.5 w 250K b/o Andriese (NO) 2.1

Free Agents (2021 $$$ lux tax):
13.8 Pedey (Retired)
8.9 Ottavino
8.3 ERod
3.0 Marwin (DFA'd)
2.8 Beni (paid to KCR-2021)
2.0 Robles
??? Santana
(NYY paid us $1.8M for Ottavino in 2021)

TOTAL BUDGET:
151.5M
+ 2.5M other 40man roster players
+15.5M Player Benefits

$170M

4-5 FA Pick-ups:
SP2 (1-3 years)
RP2 (1-3 years)
1B (1-2 years)
Utility (1-2 years)
Pitcher (1-2 years)

[moonslav59]

Rule 5, this winter:

Jecorrah Arnold
Brayan Bello
Cole Brannen
Gary Calvo
Marco Cardoso
Pedro Castellanos
Felix Cepeda
Kole Cottam
Kutter Crawford
Ricardo Cubillan
Osvaldo De La Rosa
Tyler Dearden
Jonathan Diaz
Danny Diaz
Jeter Downs
Tyler Esplin
Durbin Feltman
Ryan Fernandez
Ryan Fitzgerald
Antoni Flores
Frank German
Rio Gomez
Devlin Granberg
Gilberto Jimenez
Jose Larez
Dominic LoBrutto
Bryan Lucas
Charlie Madden
Alan Marrero
Elih Marrero
Joan Martinez
Alexander Montero
Oddanier Mosqueda
Brendan Nail
Brett Netzer
Tanner Nishioka
Kaleb Ort
Yusniel Padron-Artiles
Aaron Perry
Antonio Police
AJ Politi
Ceddanne Rafaela
Oscar Rangel
Tyreque Reed
Jesus Rosillo
Yasel Santana
Victor Santos
Zach Schellinger
John Schreiber
Gregori Segovia
Chase Shugart
Miguel Suero
Jake Thompson
Thaddeus Ward
Grant Williams
Josh Winckowski

[Nick]

I don't see Bloom giving up a top farm guy for a rental. I think he intends to go after Schwarber. At worst he can DH and play LF. We have 40 some games to evaluate him. He's a natural hitter.

[moonslav59]

I don't see Bloom giving up a top farm guy for a rental. I think he intends to go after Schwarber. At worst he can DH and play LF. We have 40 some games to evaluate him. He's a natural hitter.

Agreed.

He could be the 1Bman FA I have listed.

He could also play him in LF, Verdugo in CF and Kike at 2B.

[oldtimer]

Some folks feel confident in naming alternatives for the 2022 team and back it up with stats. That’s one approach. I prefer to state some general concepts (however trite) that perhaps Bloom will follow in constructing the team before I also dive into naming players.

1. I prefer a team of 13 field players and 13 pitchers from ST on. Cora went with 12 field players and 14 pitchers in 2021. Whatever he goes with is what we live with.

2. We see teams like the Rays being successful year to year with small payrolls and the opposite with the Dodgers spending big. To be most effective, a team needs to rid itself of the dead money issues incurred through bad contracts and then try to go forward by getting the most value from the contracts they do sign. No more sentimentality.

3. I advocate thinking in terms of a salary pyramid in which the stars (usually up the middle players and front line pitchers) get paid. Money is distributed down accordingly . I would try to stay below the CBT except where there is a real chance of competing in the WS. Long term loss of prospects is an important issue to me. It is wise to keep some money available for trade deadline action.

4. The maximum length of contracts given can be a real bugaboo for a team if it wishes to be consistently competitive. I’d rather lose a player than offering him extra long contracts. I would separate pitchers from field players because of wear and tear. For pitches in their early 30’s maybe 3 years in the mid 30’s 2 years. For pitchers in their 20’s up to 5 years. For field players in their early to mid 20’s up to 8 years, mid 20s to early 30’s 5 years. Mid 30’s 2 years. I would grant very few exceptions and stick with the plans.

5. To have an effective team you need some stars, veteran journeymen and rookies or near rookies to fill in the roster. It’s important to avoid negative and disruptive personality types and great if leader types emerge. Rookies will need time to contribute at a high level so should be brought along with that in mind. The idea of rookies and journey men is to keep the payroll within bounds.

6. Player flexibility is also important. Almost certainly there will be needs to substitute during the long season. Pitchers are fragile. Let’s hope the Covid issue doesn’t continue in 2022 but if a player does not get shots I would think the risk factor would have to be weighed in against potential value to the team. Injuries, sickness, paternity and bereavement leaves. There are lots of reasons to need players who can fill in both on the active roster and on the 40 man.

7. I would want at least 4 active roster field players to hit from the left side. It’s hard to find quality switch hitters but they are of value. Speed would be a plus when evaluating as would defensive capability. On the offensive side I would want high on base percentage guys with superior plate discipline. If a guy has power but a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate that would rule in the evaluation.

8. Pitching comes down to demonstrated reliability. The ability to command and throw strikes is a primary. Velocity helps but it is command that separates pitchers today. Starters need an assortment of pitches since the hitter may see them 3 times around.

For 2022, I would look at each player against these general thoughts and drive the team in a direction based on an agenda like this one. Bloom is smart and he no doubt has his own detailed approach. He may also have a budget that informs his plans.

[Bellhorn04]

2. We see teams like the Rays being successful year to year with small payrolls and the opposite with the Dodgers spending big. To be most effective, a team needs to rid itself of the dead money issues incurred through bad contracts and then try to go forward by getting the most value from the contracts they do sign. No more sentimentality.

Good post. The only thing I don't get is the 'No more sentimentality' comment. Not sure what you're getting at there.

[moonslav59]

Nice job, old timer. Alll your points look solid.

I will add that using your criteria every time will mean we’ll never sign the very best free agents or keep our own.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but I think there comes a time, maybe twice a decade, where you just need a certain guy so badly, you have to throw some caution to the wind.

[notin]

Nice job, old timer. Alll your points look solid.

I will add that using your criteria every time will mean we’ll never sign the very best free agents or keep our own.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but I think there comes a time, maybe twice a decade, where you just need a certain guy so badly, you have to throw some caution to the wind.

There are ALWAYS exceptions.

As much as I think those massive contracts are a bigger detriment than boon, there are always players the Sox just should go in on.

Of course if the re-instate the “no pitchers/players over 30” guideline, about 90% of them all drop from consideration anyway…

[Bellhorn04]

Of course if the re-instate the “no pitchers/players over 30” guideline, about 90% of them all drop from consideration anyway…

This is why JH keeps his trap shut now.

[moonslav59]

There are ALWAYS exceptions.

As much as I think those massive contracts are a bigger detriment than boon, there are always players the Sox just should go in on.

Of course if the re-instate the “no pitchers/players over 30” guideline, about 90% of them all drop from consideration anyway…

I felt like Manny and Price were two of those players. (The Sale trade, too, but that was not a high cost, until we extended him.)

I hated the CC deal- day one.

[moonslav59]

This is why JH keeps his trap shut now.

He has said some things better left unsaid, but some of the characterizations given to his statements here, like "celebrating" resetting the budget, seems a bit too embellishing.

[notin]

I felt like Manny and Price were two of those players. (The Sale trade, too, but that was not a high cost, until we extended him.)

I hated the CC deal- day one.

Manny was 27 when the Sox signed him. It made sense. Price was 31. The Sox had to hope it worked out and they won enough in the first 3 or 4 years to make the last seasons when that deal was dragging the team down more palatable…

[moonslav59]

Manny was 27 when the Sox signed him. It made sense. Price was 31. The Sox had to hope it worked out and they won enough in the first 3 or 4 years to make the last seasons when that deal was dragging the team down more palatable…

The thing about Price was that he and Scherzer were two of the best FA starters to come along in a pretty wide window. Once we failed to pounce on Scherzer, I think we had to sign Price.

The other thing was that when you sign an aging pitcher like Price to 8 years, you really want some big bangs in the first few years. I never saw it.

Sure, he had some good years and key moments, but he was far from Scherzer.

[Nick]

Years of Team control 2022 and beyond

Position Players
6 Duran
5 Xander (opt out after 22)
5 Dalbec
3 Verdugo
3 Arroyo
2 Devers
2 Renfroe

Starters
5 Houck (maybe 6)
5 Whitlock
4 Sale
3 Pivetta

Bullpen
4 Taylor
4 Darwinzon
4 Valdez
3 Barnes
2 Brasier.
2 Sawamura

Not a bad list....

If this were the Rays....Xander would have been traded earlier, Devers would be traded this winter, Sale would have traded earlier, Barnes would have become FA or traded....

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Y[B]


If this were the Rays.... Barnes would have become traded....

... at the deadline, while they were in first place, for two younger relievers no one's ever heard of -- who both throw 105 mph vs. Boston the very next week.