Register now to remove this ad

Page 1 of 139 1231151101 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 3965

Thread: A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    50,692

    A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

    I usually wait until the current season is over or all but over to start next year's thread, but it does not make sense discussing 2022 on the 2021 thread, so here it is...

    Here is a look at next year's projected 26 (Red) and 40 (Blue) man roster.

    Free Agents:
    ERod
    Ottavino
    Marwin
    Robles
    Santana

    Projected Options not given:
    Richards ($10M/$1.5 Mb/o)
    Perez ($6M/ $500K b/0)
    Andriese ($3.5M/ $250K b/o)

    Projected opt out: Schwarber ($11.5M)

    Projected Options given: Vaz ($7M)
    Projected no opt out: JD ($19.4M)

    2022 (4 projected FA signings- #2 SP, #2 RP, 1B, Utility IF'er):
    (5) Rule 5 protected

    SP: Sale, FA, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock, Seabold, Groome, Mata, Bello (5), Winckowski (5)
    RP: Barnes, FA, Houck, Taylor, DHern, Sawamura, Brasier, Valdez
    Rios, Bazardo
    C: Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong, Ro. Hernandez (bubble?)
    1B: FA, Dalbec, Cordero
    2B: Arroyo Downs (5)
    3B: Devers
    SS: Bogey, FA
    LF: Verdugo
    CF: Kike, Duran. Jimenez (5)
    RF: Renfroe
    DH: JD


    Any 3 from...
    5th FA or 6th FA
    Current 40 Man Bubble (all have options remaining): A Davis, Rosario, Potts, Arauz
    Possible Rule 5 protected: Kutter Crawford, Victor Santos, Thaddeus Ward
    Cole Brannen, Cole Cottam, Durbin Feltman, Frank German, Devlin Granberg. Kaleb Ort, Tyreque Reed, John Schreiber

    The budget outlook is a little murky, due to JD's opt out and a few options that might be viewed as borderline (not by me). Here is a look at the lux tax numbers for 2022 (by cots):

    Locked Up: $100.5M
    25.6 Sale
    20.0 Bogey
    17.0 Eovaldi
    16.0 Price
    9.38 Barnes
    7.00 Kike
    1.50 Sawamura

    Arbs (2021 salary) $24.5
    10.5 Devers 2 of 3 (4.6) YES
    5.00 Renfroe 3 of 4 (3.1)
    2.50 Plawecki 4 of 4 (1.6)
    1.50 Brasier 2 of 3 (1.3)
    0.90 Cordero 2 of 3 (800K)
    2.50 Verdugo 1 of 3 (650K)
    2.50 Pivetta 1 of 3 (614K)
    1.10 Arroyo 1 of 3 (582K)
    1.00 Taylor 1 of 4 (581K)

    Pre-Arb Keepers (on 40 man):
    D Hernandez
    P Valdez
    Houck
    Dalbec
    Whitlock
    Duran
    Groome
    B Mata
    Y Rios
    C Seabold
    C Wong

    Pre-Arb Bubblers (on 40 man):
    A Davis
    Arauz
    Bazardo
    Ro Hernandez
    H Potts
    J Rosario

    Player Opt Out or Mutual Option: ($19.5M)
    22.0 JD (19.4 projected no opt out)
    10.0 Schwarber (11.5 m/o w 3 b/o) projected no option

    Team Options (my projection) 2021lux tax): ($7M)
    10.0 w 1.5 b/o Richards (NO) 10.0
    6.0 w 500K b/o Perez (NO) 5.0
    7.0 w 250K b/o Vaz (YES) 4.5
    3.5 w 250K b/o Andriese (NO) 2.1

    Free Agents (2021 $$$ lux tax):
    13.8 Pedey (Retired)
    8.9 Ottavino
    8.3 ERod
    3.0 Marwin (DFA'd)
    2.8 Beni (paid to KCR-2021)
    2.0 Robles
    ??? Santana
    (NYY paid us $1.8M for Ottavino in 2021)

    TOTAL BUDGET:
    151.5M
    + 2.5M other 40man roster players
    +15.5M Player Benefits

    $170M

    4-5 FA Pick-ups:
    SP2 (1-3 years)
    RP2 (1-3 years)
    1B (1-2 years)
    Utility (1-2 years)
    Pitcher (1-2 years)
    Last edited by moonslav59; 08-13-2021 at 06:46 PM.
    Sox 4 Ever

  2. #2
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    50,692
    Rule 5, this winter:

    Jecorrah Arnold
    Brayan Bello
    Cole Brannen
    Gary Calvo
    Marco Cardoso
    Pedro Castellanos
    Felix Cepeda
    Kole Cottam
    Kutter Crawford

    Ricardo Cubillan
    Osvaldo De La Rosa
    Tyler Dearden
    Jonathan Diaz
    Danny Diaz
    Jeter Downs
    Tyler Esplin
    Durbin Feltman
    Ryan Fernandez
    Ryan Fitzgerald
    Antoni Flores
    Frank German
    Rio Gomez
    Devlin Granberg
    Gilberto Jimenez

    Jose Larez
    Dominic LoBrutto
    Bryan Lucas
    Charlie Madden
    Alan Marrero
    Elih Marrero
    Joan Martinez
    Alexander Montero
    Oddanier Mosqueda
    Brendan Nail
    Brett Netzer
    Tanner Nishioka
    Kaleb Ort
    Yusniel Padron-Artiles
    Aaron Perry
    Antonio Police
    AJ Politi
    Ceddanne Rafaela
    Oscar Rangel
    Tyreque Reed
    Jesus Rosillo
    Yasel Santana
    Victor Santos
    Zach Schellinger
    John Schreiber
    Gregori Segovia
    Chase Shugart
    Miguel Suero
    Jake Thompson
    Thaddeus Ward
    Grant Williams
    Josh Winckowski
    Sox 4 Ever

  3. #3
    Legend Nick's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    5,269
    I don't see Bloom giving up a top farm guy for a rental. I think he intends to go after Schwarber. At worst he can DH and play LF. We have 40 some games to evaluate him. He's a natural hitter.
    Boston ranks 20th in the majors in starter ERA (4.57).

    Manager Alex Cora said heís not concerned about the starting pitching.

  4. #4
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    50,692
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I don't see Bloom giving up a top farm guy for a rental. I think he intends to go after Schwarber. At worst he can DH and play LF. We have 40 some games to evaluate him. He's a natural hitter.
    Agreed.

    He could be the 1Bman FA I have listed.

    He could also play him in LF, Verdugo in CF and Kike at 2B.
    Sox 4 Ever

  5. #5
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    5,272
    Some folks feel confident in naming alternatives for the 2022 team and back it up with stats. That’s one approach. I prefer to state some general concepts (however trite) that perhaps Bloom will follow in constructing the team before I also dive into naming players.

    1. I prefer a team of 13 field players and 13 pitchers from ST on. Cora went with 12 field players and 14 pitchers in 2021. Whatever he goes with is what we live with.

    2. We see teams like the Rays being successful year to year with small payrolls and the opposite with the Dodgers spending big. To be most effective, a team needs to rid itself of the dead money issues incurred through bad contracts and then try to go forward by getting the most value from the contracts they do sign. No more sentimentality.

    3. I advocate thinking in terms of a salary pyramid in which the stars (usually up the middle players and front line pitchers) get paid. Money is distributed down accordingly . I would try to stay below the CBT except where there is a real chance of competing in the WS. Long term loss of prospects is an important issue to me. It is wise to keep some money available for trade deadline action.

    4. The maximum length of contracts given can be a real bugaboo for a team if it wishes to be consistently competitive. I’d rather lose a player than offering him extra long contracts. I would separate pitchers from field players because of wear and tear. For pitches in their early 30’s maybe 3 years in the mid 30’s 2 years. For pitchers in their 20’s up to 5 years. For field players in their early to mid 20’s up to 8 years, mid 20s to early 30’s 5 years. Mid 30’s 2 years. I would grant very few exceptions and stick with the plans.

    5. To have an effective team you need some stars, veteran journeymen and rookies or near rookies to fill in the roster. It’s important to avoid negative and disruptive personality types and great if leader types emerge. Rookies will need time to contribute at a high level so should be brought along with that in mind. The idea of rookies and journey men is to keep the payroll within bounds.

    6. Player flexibility is also important. Almost certainly there will be needs to substitute during the long season. Pitchers are fragile. Let’s hope the Covid issue doesn’t continue in 2022 but if a player does not get shots I would think the risk factor would have to be weighed in against potential value to the team. Injuries, sickness, paternity and bereavement leaves. There are lots of reasons to need players who can fill in both on the active roster and on the 40 man.

    7. I would want at least 4 active roster field players to hit from the left side. It’s hard to find quality switch hitters but they are of value. Speed would be a plus when evaluating as would defensive capability. On the offensive side I would want high on base percentage guys with superior plate discipline. If a guy has power but a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate that would rule in the evaluation.

    8. Pitching comes down to demonstrated reliability. The ability to command and throw strikes is a primary. Velocity helps but it is command that separates pitchers today. Starters need an assortment of pitches since the hitter may see them 3 times around.

    For 2022, I would look at each player against these general thoughts and drive the team in a direction based on an agenda like this one. Bloom is smart and he no doubt has his own detailed approach. He may also have a budget that informs his plans.

  6. #6
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Halifax
    Posts
    33,995
    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    2. We see teams like the Rays being successful year to year with small payrolls and the opposite with the Dodgers spending big. To be most effective, a team needs to rid itself of the dead money issues incurred through bad contracts and then try to go forward by getting the most value from the contracts they do sign. No more sentimentality.
    Good post. The only thing I don't get is the 'No more sentimentality' comment. Not sure what you're getting at there.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  7. #7
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    5,272
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Good post. The only thing I don't get is the 'No more sentimentality' comment. Not sure what you're getting at there.
    I think of Pedey's contract as having been driven by sentimentality. Some would disagree with me on that, but we took a long term contract on a guy with declining skills because he was a hero. We were also unlucky, in that he got hurt and couldn't play at all. This is the last year of paying the salary, which has hampered us to some degree.

  8. #8
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    50,692
    Nice job, old timer. Alll your points look solid.

    I will add that using your criteria every time will mean weíll never sign the very best free agents or keep our own.

    Thatís not necessarily a bad thing, but I think there comes a time, maybe twice a decade, where you just need a certain guy so badly, you have to throw some caution to the wind.
    Sox 4 Ever

  9. #9
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    5,272
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Nice job, old timer. Alll your points look solid.

    I will add that using your criteria every time will mean weíll never sign the very best free agents or keep our own.

    Thatís not necessarily a bad thing, but I think there comes a time, maybe twice a decade, where you just need a certain guy so badly, you have to throw some caution to the wind.
    There probably do need to be exceptions but they should be applied with great care.

  10. #10
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    50,692
    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    There probably do need to be exceptions but they should be applied with great care.
    I agree. There should be a great need and much discussion before any exceptions occur.
    Sox 4 Ever

  11. #11
    Deity
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Posts
    26,655
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Nice job, old timer. Alll your points look solid.

    I will add that using your criteria every time will mean weíll never sign the very best free agents or keep our own.

    Thatís not necessarily a bad thing, but I think there comes a time, maybe twice a decade, where you just need a certain guy so badly, you have to throw some caution to the wind.
    There are ALWAYS exceptions.

    As much as I think those massive contracts are a bigger detriment than boon, there are always players the Sox just should go in on.

    Of course if the re-instate the ďno pitchers/players over 30Ē guideline, about 90% of them all drop from consideration anywayÖ

  12. #12
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Halifax
    Posts
    33,995
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Of course if the re-instate the “no pitchers/players over 30” guideline, about 90% of them all drop from consideration anyway…
    This is why JH keeps his trap shut now.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  13. #13
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    50,692
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    This is why JH keeps his trap shut now.
    He has said some things better left unsaid, but some of the characterizations given to his statements here, like "celebrating" resetting the budget, seems a bit too embellishing.
    Sox 4 Ever

  14. #14
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    50,692
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    There are ALWAYS exceptions.

    As much as I think those massive contracts are a bigger detriment than boon, there are always players the Sox just should go in on.

    Of course if the re-instate the ďno pitchers/players over 30Ē guideline, about 90% of them all drop from consideration anywayÖ
    I felt like Manny and Price were two of those players. (The Sale trade, too, but that was not a high cost, until we extended him.)

    I hated the CC deal- day one.
    Sox 4 Ever

  15. #15
    Deity
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Posts
    26,655
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I felt like Manny and Price were two of those players. (The Sale trade, too, but that was not a high cost, until we extended him.)

    I hated the CC deal- day one.
    Manny was 27 when the Sox signed him. It made sense. Price was 31. The Sox had to hope it worked out and they won enough in the first 3 or 4 years to make the last seasons when that deal was dragging the team down more palatableÖ

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •