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Thread: A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

  1. #16
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    If this were the Rays....Xander would have been traded earlier, Devers would be traded this winter, Sale would have traded earlier, Barnes would have become FA or traded....
    It's all part of the Death Rays strategy for domination. They're trying to convince richer teams it's a good idea to sell at the deadline even if you're a contendah.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  2. #17
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    My early projection on the 2022 Sox 26 man roster:

    SP1 Sale
    SP2 Greinke (yes at age 38 to a shorter term deal)
    SP3 Eovaldi
    SP4 Pivetta
    SP5 Whitlock

    Clo Raisel Iglesias
    RP2 Houck
    RP3 Barnes
    RP4 Taylor
    RP5 DHern
    RP6 Sawamura
    RP7 Brasier
    RP8 Valdez

    C Vazquez
    C Plawecki
    1B Schwarber
    1B/3B Dalbec
    2B Arroyo (Kike)
    3B Devers
    SS Bogey
    SS Jose Iglesias
    LF Verdugo
    CF/2B Hernandez
    CF Duran
    RF Renfroe
    DH Martinez (does not opt out or is extended at a lower AVV)

    Others on 40 man
    SP: Seabold, Winckowski (Rule 5), Crawford (Rule 5), Bello (Rule 5), Groome, Mata
    RP: Rios, Davis, Bazardo
    C: Wong
    IF: Downs (Rule 5)
    OF: Cordero, Jimenez (Rule 5)

    One from the bubble list:
    Ro Hernandez
    T Ward (Rule 5)
    V Santos (Rule 5)
    F German (Rule 5)
    D Granberg (Rule 5)
    D Feltman (Rule 5)
    K Ort (Rule 5)
    T Reed (Rule 5)
    Rosario
    Arauz
    C Cottam (Rule 5)
    R Fitzgerald (Rule 5)
    T Dearden (Rule 5)


    Gone from 2021 40man roster:
    Marwin
    Santana
    ERod
    Ottavino
    Richards
    Perez
    Andriese
    Robles
    Potts
    (From bubble list: R Hernandez, Rosario & Arauz)

    Last edited by moonslav59; 08-15-2021 at 10:53 AM.
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  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    It's all part of the Death Rays strategy for domination. They're trying to convince richer teams it's a good idea to sell at the deadline even if you're a contendah.
    Actually if the Sox operated like the Rays, Duran would have been signed to a 5 year extension by now…

  4. #19
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Actually if the Sox operated like the Rays, Duran would have been signed to a 5 year extension by now…
    ...and Sale would have been gone long before the extension.
    JD would never have been signed.
    Eovaldi, too.
    No Bogey.
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  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Good post. The only thing I don't get is the 'No more sentimentality' comment. Not sure what you're getting at there.
    I think of Pedey's contract as having been driven by sentimentality. Some would disagree with me on that, but we took a long term contract on a guy with declining skills because he was a hero. We were also unlucky, in that he got hurt and couldn't play at all. This is the last year of paying the salary, which has hampered us to some degree.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Nice job, old timer. Alll your points look solid.

    I will add that using your criteria every time will mean we’ll never sign the very best free agents or keep our own.

    That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but I think there comes a time, maybe twice a decade, where you just need a certain guy so badly, you have to throw some caution to the wind.
    There probably do need to be exceptions but they should be applied with great care.

  7. #22
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    There probably do need to be exceptions but they should be applied with great care.
    I agree. There should be a great need and much discussion before any exceptions occur.
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  8. #23
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    I was looking over our minor league and prospect player list and I see darn few who may be brought up in 2022. Duran and Houck are already up so in my view we have possibilities in the field of:

    Casas
    Munoz
    DeShields

    Yorke and Jimenez are very promising for 2023 while Mayer may be 2024.

    I don't see Downs making an impact as he doesn't hit minor league pitching

    As far as pitching is concerned we have Seabold with Ward, Winkowski (sp)and Bello possible

    Mata is out with TJ and Groome has been unimpressive

    Thats not a lot of talent so Bloom has to try to keep existing quality talent while looking to the FA market for 2022. Let us hope the purse strings open up a bit. We don't get rid of Price's contract until next year.

  9. #24
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    I was looking over our minor league and prospect player list and I see darn few who may be brought up in 2022. Duran and Houck are already up so in my view we have possibilities in the field of:

    Casas
    Munoz
    DeShields

    Yorke and Jimenez are very promising for 2023 while Mayer may be 2024.

    I don't see Downs making an impact as he doesn't hit minor league pitching

    As far as pitching is concerned we have Seabold with Ward, Winkowski (sp)and Bello possible

    Mata is out with TJ and Groome has been unimpressive

    Thats not a lot of talent so Bloom has to try to keep existing quality talent while looking to the FA market for 2022. Let us hope the purse strings open up a bit. We don't get rid of Price's contract until next year.
    Just a general comment.

    As Moon often has said, Sox fans tend to 'overvalue' their prospects. When looked through the 30 team spectrum, we're in the lower half.

    We're far from NOT sniffing the luxury tax line. Not sure how much money is available this winter if we still can't go over the $210M mark.

    No one has convinced me that Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck can't be a starter along with Eovaldi and Sale. How much upgrade can you make without going after a #1 type pitcher that will require massive commitment by the club? Who is out there for less than $10M that will be an upgrade over Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck?

    Bullpen needs reinforcement despite having 4-5 solid guys.

    Kike, Renfroe, Xavier, JD, Devers, Verdugo, Arroyo and say Schwarber looks good enough to be on a World Series contending team.

    I'm okay with the starting five, maybe re-sign E Rod and move Houck to the pen.

    Can't have enough guns in the pen though.

    Ok, missed the money part on Moon's outstanding post....

    We have $40M to sign Schwarber(?), E Rod or Greinke, a top line reliever.
    Last edited by Nick; 08-15-2021 at 12:38 PM.
    Up 2-1 with 2 home games remaining for ACL Championship. I will always return to that spot and roll the dice.

  10. #25
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    I was looking over our minor league and prospect player list and I see darn few who may be brought up in 2022. Duran and Houck are already up so in my view we have possibilities in the field of:

    Casas
    Munoz
    DeShields

    Yorke and Jimenez are very promising for 2023 while Mayer may be 2024.

    I don't see Downs making an impact as he doesn't hit minor league pitching

    As far as pitching is concerned we have Seabold with Ward, Winkowski (sp)and Bello possible

    Mata is out with TJ and Groome has been unimpressive

    Thats not a lot of talent so Bloom has to try to keep existing quality talent while looking to the FA market for 2022. Let us hope the purse strings open up a bit. We don't get rid of Price's contract until next year.
    Groome may start coming around, soon, but to still binge at A ball at age 22 has to be viewed as an overall letdown, despite the injuries.

    I would also add that Casas has to hit better than .768 in AA to get a shot at playing a hitter's position like 1B in 2022.

    Downs is seeing his stock fall, but I think he can still turn things around.

    I like what I have seen from Wong, so we may see more of him.

    I think Bello may rise more quickly that we think.

    Seabold should see significant time with the big club in 2022- maybe even this September.

    I also like Winckowski, but he has been struggling, of late.

    Chris Murphy may rise and contribute in '22.

    Ronald Hernandez, Munoz, Crawford, Bazardo and Arauz can be role players.

    Getting great input from Whitlock, Houck and Duran lessens the need to have serious impact prospects for 2022, but it would be nice to get something good from somebody.



    Last edited by moonslav59; 08-15-2021 at 12:17 PM.
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  11. #26
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    I do think signing Schwarber in anticipation of JD moving on after 2022 (even if he stays after 2021) is typical Red Sox move. We extended Eovaldi knowing Porcello was going to be in his last year of contract. Hedging the bet as a gambler would say. It's matter of how much that insurance will cost.

    I love Schwarber. I saw him play at IU.
    Up 2-1 with 2 home games remaining for ACL Championship. I will always return to that spot and roll the dice.

  12. #27
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Sox fWAR Rankings (50+ PAs)
    4. Devers 4.6
    8. Bogey 4.5
    36. Kike 3.2
    48. JD 2.9
    98. Verdugo 1.8
    108. Schwarber 1.7
    117. Renfroe 1.6
    150. Arroyo 1.3
    0.4 Plawecki
    0.2 Vazquez
    -0.1 Dalbec
    -0.3 Duran
    -0.4 Chavis
    -0.4 Santana
    -0.5 Marwin
    -0.7 Cordero

    Starting Pitching ( 154 pitchers w 50+ IP)
    4. Eovaldi 4.1
    34. ERod 2.5
    55. Pivetta 1.9
    117. Perez 0.5
    124. Richards 0.4

    RP'ers (264 with 20+ IP)
    6. Barnes 1.6
    13. Ottavino 1.3
    24. Whitlock 1.1
    49. Taylor 0.7
    198. Y Rios 0.0
    206. DHer -0.1
    224. Valdez -0.1
    226. Workman -0.1
    227. Andriese -0.2
    241. Robles -0.3
    253. Sawamura -0.4

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  13. #28
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Team fWAR Numbers

    American League

    Position Players:
    24.7 HOU
    19.5 CWS
    19.4 TBR
    19.2 TOR
    18.9 OAK
    18.3 BOS
    14.1 MIN
    13.5 NYY

    Pitching
    18.1 CWS
    15.9 NYY
    14.4 BOS
    14.1 TBR
    13.9 OAK
    11.5 HOU
    11.0 SEA
    10. TOR 7.6

    Add the two:
    37.6 CWS
    36.2 HOU
    33.5 TBR
    32.8 OAK
    32.7 BOS
    30.4 NYY
    26.8 TOR
    19.7 SEA

    Sox By Position:

    1st SS
    1st 3B
    2nd CF
    3rd DH
    4th 2B
    4th SP
    5th RP

    8th LF
    8th RF

    11th C
    14th 1B


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  14. #29
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    This kid has really come on this year...good stuff, good change up, good control.

    [B]Brayan Bello's pitching line for tonight; 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K. The 22-year-old righty is currently seventh on
    I've always been very high on Bello. He could be the guy that makes a difference, sooner rather than later.

    This was my rankings from a week ago on the prospects page:

    My top 30
    1. Mayer
    2. Duran
    3. Houck (I'd flip Houck and Duran, now.)
    4. Casas
    5. Bello
    6. Jimenez
    7. Downs
    8. Yorke
    9. Seabold
    10. Song
    11. Jordan
    12. Winckowski
    13. Murphy
    14. Mata
    15. Wong
    16. Groome
    17. Bonaci
    18. Wilkelman
    19. Crawford
    20. Howlett
    21. Lugo
    22. Bleis
    23. Hickey
    24. McDonough
    25. Cannon
    26. Bazardo
    27. Rosario
    28. Ro Hernandez
    29. Paulino
    30. Arauz/Lira/Potts/Drohan
    Last edited by moonslav59; 08-15-2021 at 05:23 PM.
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  15. #30
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    To me, the biggest improvement Bl0om has brought to this club is not to the farm and not to the top 20 players or the 26 man roster. It's to the bottom 14-15 men on the 40 man roster and the bubble players beyond them. (Yes, some are prospects, but compare this winter's projected 26-40 men to the 2020 bottom of roster.

    My projected 27-45 roster players this winter:
    Seabold, Bello, Groome, Winckowski, Crawford, Mata
    Rios, Bazardo, Davis
    Wong, R Hernandez
    Downs, Arauz
    Jimenez, Rosario

    2020's
    Covey, Kickham, Hart, Triggs
    Brice, Stock, Walden, Hall, Lever
    Grullon, Lucroy
    Chavis, Lin
    Puello

    Not to mention the #22-26 type guys like Mazza, Godley, Brewer, Springs, Peraza, Arauz.
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