Yankees 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I don't know if spending all that dough on Seager makes sense, and he will cost a fortune. And with Judge needing to be resigned at the end of the year, along with Tallion, maybe Gallo, the Yankees aren't going to spend on Seager. More importantly, the Yankees actually have a couple of quality shortstops in their system. Peraza isn't far away. In fact, it wouldn't be outrageous for Peraza to be the Yankees starting SS on opening day. It would be an aggressive promotion but not unheard of. Maybe the Yankees look for an older veteran SS to hold down the position for a few months until Peraza is ready.

[moonslav59]

Voit was the HR champion of the short sprint. Frazier was a .900+ OPS OFer from 2020.
Hicks had a .380 OBP and a 3 WAR equivalent sprint.

Those three guys above had a full season effective value of 11.6 WAR in 2020 and they essentially gave us nothing.

Those three guys were very big in 2020 and were essentially non existent in 21. Lemahieu hit .367 in 20 and cut his BA by one hundred points for 2021 mostly due to injury (although he wasn’t gonna hit .367 again). DJ’s drop in full season Equivalent WAR was a staggering 4.35. When considering those four guys alone, Yanks lost 16 WAR

That wasn't my point.

My point was about why you'd expect good health, when you never get it.

[jacksonianmarch]

We had supposed depth early. Losing 3 starters crumbled that depth and overexposed players who were better off as role players which started a chain reaction that didn’t get patched until the deadline

[jacksonianmarch]

We never stay healthy, that’s true, but we rarely have multiple season ending injuries before May 1, especially to starting position players

[jacksonianmarch]

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2021/...tion-analytics

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't know if spending all that dough on Seager makes sense, and he will cost a fortune. And with Judge needing to be resigned at the end of the year, along with Tallion, maybe Gallo, the Yankees aren't going to spend on Seager. More importantly, the Yankees actually have a couple of quality shortstops in their system. Peraza isn't far away. In fact, it wouldn't be outrageous for Peraza to be the Yankees starting SS on opening day. It would be an aggressive promotion but not unheard of. Maybe the Yankees look for an older veteran SS to hold down the position for a few months until Peraza is ready.

I love Peraza and love Volpe even more, but the Yanks cannot pin their hopes and dreams on a 21 yr old rookie with 8 games under his belt at AAA. It has NEVER been the way the Yanks do it. They have always brought in veterans on short term deals (or had entrenched veterans who could be let go easily) in the way of their big prospects and forced the hand of the GM by earning their stripes. Also, Gleyber Torres is vulnerable right now. If we nab Seager for SS, Torres is the next domino to fall if he doesn't prove his late season surge with his position switch is permanent. And if we nab the other Seager on a 1 year deal, we will have a second position in the infield that will be up for grabs if there is an injury, etc. There are worse things than having three shortstop capable players in your infield so long as they can deliver offense.

Biggest thing we need is to get players who can be dynamic. Seager is dynamic in that he runs the bases well, is a solid defender, takes walks, hits for average and for power AND avoids the K. With this Yankee team essentially a 3 true outcome team, they need to get away from that mentality. That is why I really like Rizzo too, but also don't think he is going to be worth his next contract as a 1b with an OPS at or below .800. Maybe that is the way they go, re-up Rizzo, move DJ to third and signing Seager and call it a day in the infield. I also think fresh eyes from a hitting coach capability will help. Thames maximized his success from 18-20, but clearly his adjustments werent working and it is time to try another philosophy.

[jacksonianmarch]

I actually think the infield is the easiest to predict. We are gonna sign a big middle infielder. Could it be Semien, Seager, Correa? I think it will be Seager, but there is too much smoke for there not to be any fire here. We also need a CIF, likely on a shorter term deal. The biggest variable here is the OF. You've got RF set and will probably re-sign him this offseason. You've got about 40 games in LF and 100 games (god willing) at the DH spot covered in Stanton. We have Hicks under contract, but he isn't someone you can pencil into a starting spot with his spotty injury history. Gallo would theoretically be penciled into LF, but he responded horrendously as a Yankee raising some questions as to whether he can handle YS. Add in his absurd 37% K rate and it is time to make a change UNLESS you make Gallo more of your CF or a CF platoon with Hicks (Hicks has historically hit lefties better). This opens up LF for someone. Cannot count on Frazier, heck he might have to retire. Gardner should not be brought back. I would like to see a guy who can play LF who can be at least a good cog in the machine. Either someone who brings speed, contact and OBP (like Grossman), or a guy coming off an off year still in prime who would be a great fit for YS (like Conforto). Or maybe the Yanks do a Rays-eque type move and deal off Gallo and sign McCutchen (who demolishes lefties) and deal for Naquin from the Reds (who crushes righties). I have literally no idea which way they are gonna go, but I do not like the idea of going into 2022 with the OF as is.

[jacksonianmarch]

Onto the starting pitching staff.

Cole got a lot of shit for how his season ended, yet he may win or finish runner up for the CY. He tweaked his hammy early September and wasn’t the same. Assuming the hammy isn’t a recurring problem, I’m happy with him leading the 22 rotation.

Jordan Montgomery has quietly had two solid career seasons bookending 2 injury ravaged ones and a better than the results seemed sprint in 20. He’s not counted on for more than 5 innings a start, but when he’s on the hill he is steady as can be. Going into a contract year, I expect him to continue his steadiness.

Jameson Taillon also enters a contract year and he was one of the best pitchers in baseball the second half. He did end the year with a partial ankle tendon tear that will likely need surgery. Assuming all goes well, he’s locked into the rotation.

Luis Severino will be transitioned to the rotation for his contract year as well. While I expect the Yanks to ramp him up real slow, he’s now finally healthy after a series of mis or delayed diagnoses cost him three years.

Domingo German quietly posted his best year by peripherals of his career, albeit in only 18 starts. Coming off his domestic violence suspension, he was handled pretty gingerly, but was arguably our best pitcher for a 4 week stretch prior to his shoulder issue. He slots in as a very capable 5th starter

Nestor Cortes threw nearly 100 innings of sub 3 ERA ball. While the FIP wasn’t as kind (3.70), it’s still far better than most 6th starter options in baseball. He may be the find of the year as he added 2.5 mph to his fastball and experimented with arm angles to keep hitters off balance.

Luis Gil set a Yankee mark by starting his career with 15 scoreless innings as a starter, but command issues essentially wrecked his final 3 starts. Gil is likely ticketed for AAA to iron out his command. 22 will be a big year in determining if he ends up as a multi inning reliever or a starter long term.

For starting depth beyond these 6, Michael King, Deivi Garcia, and Clarke Schmidt will all get looks, although the latter two will likely start 22 in AAA and King will be a multi inning weapon out of the pen, a role he effectively carried once demoted from the rotation.

The Yanks have their depth in the rotation, and for 21, they were a very effective group of misfits. I’d be entirely fine with the Yanks rolling into 22 with no major upgrades, but this is the Yankees and the one thing they could use is some added veteran experience that Kluber couldn’t add since he missed 3 months. While there are always big names on the pitching front, there’s one dark horse name out there who just got burned by his team and that’s Verlander. The Yanks were narrowly edged out by Houston for his services when Detroit dealt him and that was a major tilting factor in two of the Yankees defeats in October. Also, nearing 40 and coming off two missed seasons, there’s a good chance he can be had on a prove it deal. That’s the move I make in the rotation. Go out and sweet talk Verlander into a 1 yr $10 mil deal, offer a $10 mil player option for year two that kicks him a $5 mil buyout if he declines and see if he bites. I doubt anyone will offer him $15 mil guaranteed for one year and $20 mil for two.

[jacksonianmarch]

Final piece is Pen. I will tell you Matt Blake deserves a ton of credit for revamping this pitching staff. When the gutting of management occurs, this kid needs to be kept and even extended.

It all starts with the closer, Chapman. Chapman averaged 98.5mph on his heater, so he hasn't lost his power. He added a split. His ERA of 3.36 was the highest of his career since his rookie year. His walk rate spiked over 6, attributed to a loss of command of his fastball. As long as he doesn't have a major injury, he is a lock to be a late inning reliever, although I think his days of being the unquestioned closer are over while with the Yanks. Yanks pen is too deep and too good to shoe horn Chapman into spots where others could be utilized. Might also add longevity to him.

For setup men, the list is long. But it starts with Loaisiga. Johnny Lasagna had a 2.4 WAR as a reliever. He dominated 2021 and became the Yanks highest leverage pitcher outside of Chapman. A late shoulder issue nearly derailed his breakout year, but he did return. He is locked in as the highest leverage setup man.

Chad Green goes into a contract year as the Steady Eddie of our pen. He's been a dominant entity out there for years and will enter his last contractual year in pinstripes out there. I do wonder if the Yanks pull a Rays and deal him off prior to his contract year and re-tool some parts, but for now, he is a welcome addition to a deep pen

Clay Holmes is the newcomer to the late inning reliable arms. He has a high octane arm but couldnt harness it as a Pirate. He came to NY and immediately became untouchable. He added 4mph to his heater from 2020, ramped down his curve and ramped up his slider and fastball usage. Cashman, as usual, found a diamond in the rough and a guy who should enter 2022 as the third reliable arm in the bridge.

Wandy Peralta was an afterthought when the Yanks got him from SF for Mike Tauchman. He rapidly became a dominant force from the left side for the Yanks. He went from a guy who threw equal parts slider, circle change and fastball to a change up dominated pitcher throwing it almost 50% of the time. Match that to his 95mph sinker and his FB change combo led to multiple ground balls and a very effective approach.

Lucas Luetge was a find out of ST. He was a non roster invitee who's spin rate made his lower velocity play up. To his credit, he also reinvigorated his stuff to become a lefty with no straight pitch. He throws a 89 mph cutter 60% of the time rounding out his arsenal with a slider and a curve. Luetge threw 72IP with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.5WAR as mostly a lower leverage reliever. He is 34, so no spring chicken, but he was awesome to watch in a surprise 21. He should come into 22 with a lock on a roster spot unless he gets dealt elsewhere.

Joely Rodriguez was an under the radar trade at the deadline, but he did pay off. A lefty with good power and mostly a FB change pitcher, he moved over to NY and saw his ERA dip below 3 by ramping up his changeup rate which saw a drop in his HR rate. He will be on the roster bubble, but is another addition that paid immediate dividends once putting on the pinstripes.

Michael King was a starter out of ST but transitioned really well to a multi inning relief role. He saw every metric improve and had an ERA well under 3 out of the pen.

That is 8 guys above with the likelihood that the Yanks carry their current top 5 and Cortes. No additions needed, as a matter of fact, there is a strong chance one or more of the above are dealt.

Internal options abound. As with the rotation, Schmidt and Gil are options out of the pen. Albert Abreu has tremendous power, but needs to find his location. He could easily be the next failed starter who turns into a multi inning shut down reliever. Nick Nelson is running out of chances as a guy who can hit 100 but is surprisingly hittable. Dark horse high end prospect Luis Medina could become a lights out reliever currently topping out at 103mph, but the Yanks are trying him out of the rotation. Should a need arise, he would be the next kid to watch. Lord knows what he could do in short stint

[moonslav59]

We never stay healthy, that’s true, but we rarely have multiple season ending injuries before May 1, especially to starting position players

Last year, Stanton, Judge and Andujar played less than half the games. Several other everyday players missed time, too. Don't pretend the injuries have only occurred to your pitchers. It's been an ongoing reality for several years in a row.

Didn't Stanton miss pretty much all of 2019? That's almost as bad as losing the 3 you mentioned, this year, but you had other injuries that year, too- not just to pitchers. I think Gregorius & Judge missed a bunch of games...maybe Hicks, too.

The Yanks set a record in 2019. Have you forgotten that?

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/y...shela-hits-il/

Now, you act like it should be a surprise.

I think your GM or your new GM will have to change his roster building strategy to address the amount of injury-prone players on your roster, year-after-year.

You can point to how great your team is on paper, but if they never play, what good are they?

[jacksonianmarch]

Last year, Stanton, Judge and Andujar played less than half the games. Several other everyday players missed time, too. Don't pretend the injuries have only occurred to your pitchers. It's been an ongoing reality for several years in a row.

Didn't Stanton miss pretty much all of 2019? That's almost as bad as losing the 3 you mentioned, this year, but you had other injuries that year, too- not just to pitchers. I think Gregorius & Judge missed a bunch of games...maybe Hicks, too.

The Yanks set a record in 2019. Have you forgotten that?

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/y...shela-hits-il/

Now, you act like it should be a surprise.

I think your GM or your new GM will have to change his roster building strategy to address the amount of injury-prone players on your roster, year-after-year.

You can point to how great your team is on paper, but if they never play, what good are they?

We haven’t had an overhaul on the offensive side in awhile. Pulling Voit, Hicks, Frazier, and Gio from the starting lineup should help our health.

[Bellhorn04]

No one can say you don't maintain a positive attitude.

[jacksonianmarch]

No one can say you don't maintain a positive attitude.

Yanks need a lot of change offensively. Pitching was nails all year, offense sucked all year.

[Kimmi]

Onto the starting pitching staff.

Cole got a lot of shit for how his season ended, yet he may win or finish runner up for the CY. He tweaked his hammy early September and wasn’t the same. Assuming the hammy isn’t a recurring problem, I’m happy with him leading the 22 rotation.

I found this piece to be rather interesting:

Former MLB exec: Gerrit Cole isn’t an ace without sticky stuff so Yankees are working on solution with Commissioner’s Office

Former Miami Marlins president David Samson joined The Rich Eisen Show on Thursday, and laid into Cole, who didn’t make it out of the third inning in New York’s 6-2 loss in the American League Wild Card Game.

“Gerrit Cole has a great contract on paper. He makes a ton of money. But at the end of the day, without foreign substances, he’s far less effective. He’s not really an ace.”

That led to this exchange between Eisen and Samson:

Eisen: “So are you saying Gerrit Cole is not going to be the same pitcher because the sticky stuff is no longer allowed? Is that truly what you are saying?”

Samson: “I’m saying that the New York Yankees are working very closely with the Commissioner’s Office and they are trying to develop a foreign substance that is agreed to by the union as part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement and they are testing that substance by calling up Gerrit Cole and saying, ‘Hey, do you like this one? Do you like that one?’ Gotta do something.”

I don't know how much truth there is to that, but I hope the Commissioner's Office is not catering to Gerrit Cole and the Yankees.

[moonslav59]

We haven’t had an overhaul on the offensive side in awhile. Pulling Voit, Hicks, Frazier, and Gio from the starting lineup should help our health.

You still have Stanton, Judge, Andujar and whatever big bulky new injury-prone players Cashman adds.