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Thread: The Official 2021 ALCS Thread

  1. #886
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    As much as pitchng is the top priority, there really isn't anyone on this free agent market the Sox should be dedicating massive wads of cash to. We talk about Stroman, but will he be looking for Eovaldi money and years? Or will he be looking for Patrick Corbin money? If it's the latter, let someone else have him.
    The first question is whether they try to make a deal with E-Rod. I'd rather that than Stroman, assuming E-Rod comes at a livable price.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  2. #887
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    About your reversal. It is possible. Eovaldi is our best, and Garcia is their worst, so the odds are good the Sox lethargic lineup will come back to life and give the Sox a lead, maybe even a good one. As my earlier post says, I also expect the Sox bullpen to be up to the task tonight, assuming Eovaldi can go 5 or 6 and not give up a bunch of runs.
    I think a reversal is likely, not just possible.

    BTW, we won 92 games, this year. 47 were come from behind wins. That's a little more than half.

    Sure, our odds improve, if we score first or get a big lead, but it is not essential.

    This team is a "never say die" team. It's an elimination game. I'm sticking with my belief that this team will do what they have done all year: silence their critics.

    I know, now I sound like I'm locked in on trends continuing.
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  3. #888
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I think this may be a hope to get another Kike.

    I like Chris Taylor, but not obsessively.
    Forget Taylor. The key is to keep Kike in centerfield, and the fix is to bring Arroyo and Iglesias back.

    Especially if Schwarber returns, the Sox should have a pretty good lineup next year.

    So the offseason investments should be in pitching. Wednesday night Sale impressed the heck out of me, so right now I'm thinking Bloom and Cora are looking at 5 decent starters if they keep ERod and 4 if they don't: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, and Houck (especially if that splitter holds up--he needs 3 good pitches). The bullpen could definitely use some help even though that's kind of a crapshoot.

  4. #889
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I think a reversal is likely, not just possible.

    BTW, we won 92 games, this year. 47 were come from behind wins. That's a little more than half.

    Sure, our odds improve, if we score first or get a big lead, but it is not essential.

    This team is a "never say die" team. It's an elimination game. I'm sticking with my belief that this team will do what they have done all year: silence their critics.

    I know, now I sound like I'm locked in on trends continuing.
    Three days ago, this team was pitching and hitting well and looked to run over Houston.

    Today, this team is not pitching well and not hittng and should be eliminated by Hosuton.

    If it switched one way so quickly, why can't it switch back?

    Part of the reason seems to be we evaluate the Sox solely on their most recent games, but then evaluate Houston on their season-long performance and assume they had day-to-day consistency for 162 games.

    They are just as capable of rolling over and dying as Boston is...

  5. #890
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    Meh. Were I Cora, I would stick with Eovaldi, Whitlock, Taylor, and Ottavino. If long relief is needed, use Pivetta and save Houck for tomorrow. If it's extra innings, however, Houck might be needed.

    Brasier's ERA is 9. That he has 4 holds shows how stupid that stat is. Robles' ERA is 5. Sawamura's is 4.5. None can be relied upon in a tight game for high stakes. So no way do I see them pitching tonight unless the game is a runaway or Cora runs out of arms in extra innings. FWIW, I am more than happy to say I have seen all three of them pitch extremely well this year--as have we all. So you are absolutely right that overall the bullpen has been a vital cog in this remarkable season.
    The sample size is so small for Brasier. I don't think it's all that telling. Sure, I lost some confidence, but he had been lights out for a long time beforehand.

    We won't "save" Houck for tomorrow, if tomorrow might not ever come. To me, we'll use whoever we think id the best guy to get out who is coming up next. That very well might be Pivetta first, Whitlock second, and maybe Houck is not even needed, but if Cora likes the Houck match-up best, he might be the first one in.

    I trust Cora to use who is best. I hope we don't have to use all 3. It would be great to only need to use 1 (or none.)
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  6. #891
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    Forget Taylor. The key is to keep Kike in centerfield, and the fix is to bring Arroyo and Iglesias back.

    Especially if Schwarber returns, the Sox should have a pretty good lineup next year.

    So the offseason investments should be in pitching. Wednesday night Sale impressed the heck out of me, so right now I'm thinking Bloom and Cora are looking at 5 decent starters if they keep ERod and 4 if they don't: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, and Houck (especially if that splitter holds up--he needs 3 good pitches). The bullpen could definitely use some help even though that's kind of a crapshoot.
    I've said utility IF is a low priority and Iggy would be great. If we do go big at 2B, I'd get someone who might replace Bogey, if he opt out (Baez or Semien,) but pitching is by far, my top priority.
    Sox 4 Ever

  7. #892
    TalkSox Godhead mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I've said utility IF is a low priority and Iggy would be great. If we do go big at 2B, I'd get someone who might replace Bogey, if he opt out (Baez or Semien,) but pitching is by far, my top priority.
    Of course, that means Bloom will only get one decent starter and a bunch of low cost relievers.

  8. #893
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The sample size is so small for Brasier. I don't think it's all that telling. Sure, I lost some confidence, but he had been lights out for a long time beforehand.

    We won't "save" Houck for tomorrow, if tomorrow might not ever come. To me, we'll use whoever we think id the best guy to get out who is coming up next. That very well might be Pivetta first, Whitlock second, and maybe Houck is not even needed, but if Cora likes the Houck match-up best, he might be the first one in.

    I trust Cora to use who is best. I hope we don't have to use all 3. It would be great to only need to use 1 (or none.)
    ERA is not remarkably useful when a pitcher has 4 IP...

  9. #894
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    Forget Taylor. The key is to keep Kike in centerfield, and the fix is to bring Arroyo and Iglesias back.

    Especially if Schwarber returns, the Sox should have a pretty good lineup next year.

    So the offseason investments should be in pitching. Wednesday night Sale impressed the heck out of me, so right now I'm thinking Bloom and Cora are looking at 5 decent starters if they keep ERod and 4 if they don't: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, and Houck (especially if that splitter holds up--he needs 3 good pitches). The bullpen could definitely use some help even though that's kind of a crapshoot.
    Ah yes, the true biggest myth in baseball.

    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers." If you keep your good relief pitchers in the bullpen, many of them will continue to pitch well. But if you continually fill the bullpen with volatile pitchers whose performance will vary, then you will continue to get a bullpen that is just not reliable.

    Right now, the sox have two very good pitchers in the bullpen in Houck and Whitlock, and the consensus is "GET THEM OUTTA THE PEN!!" Why? I get that SP is in need of improvement, but bullpens are very important in today's game and when you have one that works, try not to tear it down to build up other aspects of the team that don't. The Sox probably need a 2B next year (Arroyo injured himself this year taking a throw at first - if that doesn't make you question his durability, what will?). Hey, we have extra outfielders!! Let's put Duran in CF and move Kike to 2B. It might not work out, but centerfielders are a crapshoot, right?

  10. #895
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Three days ago, this team was pitching and hitting well and looked to run over Houston.

    Today, this team is not pitching well and not hittng and should be eliminated by Hosuton.

    If it switched one way so quickly, why can't it switch back?

    Part of the reason seems to be we evaluate the Sox solely on their most recent games, but then evaluate Houston on their season-long performance and assume they had day-to-day consistency for 162 games.

    They are just as capable of rolling over and dying as Boston is...
    Exactly, and over 162 games, the Astros won 3 more games than us. In the playoffs, we've both won 6 games.

    Every AL team has had serious flaws and ups and downs. I've documented all the ups and downs from the Sox, so here's a quick look at some Houston trends...

    They had 4 months of playing only 2-3 games above .500 and really made the playoffs based on their June>July record (35-17).

    In April, they won 4 in a row and 6 of 7, then lost 6 in a row and 9 of 10, before flipping again to winning 6 of 7.

    In May, they lost 3 in a row and 5 of 8 before winning 6 in a row. Later, they lost 4 straight and 6 of 7.

    Even in their good month of June, where they won 11 straight, they quickly lost 5 of their next 6.

    They started July off by winning 6 straight, then lost 3 straight and 5 of 7. Later, they won 6 of 7.

    How did their last 2 months go?

    They lost 5 of their first 6, won 5 of 6, lost 4 straight, won 3 straight, lost 2, then won 4 straight. they won-lost almost daily it into September before winning 4 of 5 and 8 of 10. Then, they lost 4 straight and 6 of the next 8 games before winning their last 2.

    They have yo-yo'd like all AL teams.
    Sox 4 Ever

  11. #896
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Of course, that means Bloom will only get one decent starter and a bunch of low cost relievers.
    Assuming he has $40M to spend on 5 slots, fill in some names:

    $19M SP_______ (ERod?)
    $7M RP _______ (Ottavino?)
    $6M RP________ (????)
    $5M RP________ (????)
    $3M Utility______ (Iggy?)
    Sox 4 Ever

  12. #897
    According to Paul "Needlenose " Minagge , A baseball game between two good teams can basically go either way. Even if one team is superior, never give big odds. Don't try to overanalyze . It's not quite a crapshoot , but it's pretty close to it. " Needlenose" knows a thing or two about gambling. That said, I've got a double saw on the Sox tonight.

  13. #898
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    According to Paul "Needlenose " Minagge , A baseball game between two good teams can basically go either way. Even if one team is superior, never give big odds. Don't try to overanalyze . It's not quite a crapshoot , but it's pretty close to it. " Needlenose" knows a thing or two about gambling. That said, I've got a double saw on the Sox tonight.
    Don't spend all your winnings in one place.

    Sox 4 Ever

  14. #899
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    If it switched one way so quickly, why can't it switch back?
    Re. a switchback: I think it can, because of an off-day to rest, reflect, and most importantly, reset... and relocate. Yup, the Sox just might be more focused at the task at hand behind enemy lines (if only they weren't so distracted by those twirling, orange hankies -- gimme a break, H-town, and mix in some real baseball fans).

    5GGs new theory -- it's more likely for batters to get overanxious and roll over on outside junk when you're trying to be the home run hero for the hollering hometown crowd... instead of surviving via an adrenaline-induced laser focus, fighting for your lives in a hostile environment where you're outnumbered by tens of thousands of haters. Remember, if you're supposed to lose, then you've got nothing to lose -- and all it might take are a few elite athletes to channel the best hand-eye coordination in the world to stave off elimination.

  15. #900
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Don't spend all your winnings in one place.

    I will let the winnings ride on Saturday's game.
    Old school is good school.

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