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Thread: The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

  1. #1951
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    Cot's.....I think it's more of 40 man CBT payroll at year end. But I do think it takes into account mid summer acquisitions.
    I write fictional stories in my spare time. So don't fact check me. Better?

  2. #1952
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Cot's.....I think it's more of 40 man CBT payroll at year end. But I do think it takes into account mid summer acquisitions.
    But they do not list yearly rankings over the years. I'd have to look up each team, individually over 25 years. That's looking up 750 individual data points (25 years x 30 teams.)
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  3. #1953
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    But they do not list yearly rankings over the years. I'd have to look up each team, individually over 25 years. That's looking up 750 individual data points (25 years x 30 teams.)
    Year Opening Day 26-man Year End 40-man CB Tax 40-man

    2021 $147,825,000 (12) $152,189,618 (13) $165,665,645 (15)
    2020 $ 73,428,704 ( 5) $ 80,584,972( 5) $216,269,251 ( 3)
    2019 $203,079,488 ( 3) $220,307,173 ( 3) $237,199,519 ( 2)
    2018 $182,406,139 ( 4) $198,733,661 ( 3) $193,316,649 ( 5 )

    I just assumed the number in parenthesis was the rankings.

    Opening Day payrolls compiled by Baseball Prospectus include salaries and pro-rated signing bonuses for players on the active 25/26-man roster and injured list. Deferred payments and performance and award bonuses are not included.

    Year End 40-man roster payrolls obtained by The Associated Press include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned performance and award bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions. Deferrals may be discounted to reflect present-day value.

    Year End Competitive Balance Tax payrolls obtained by The Associated Press include average annual value of contracts, earned bonuses, non-cash compensation, cash transactions, buyouts of unexercised options, and health and pension benefits. Deferrals may be discounted to reflect present-day value.
    Last edited by Nick; 01-17-2022 at 12:01 PM.
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  4. #1954
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Year Opening Day 26-man Year End 40-man CB Tax 40-man

    2021 $147,825,000 (12) $152,189,618 (13) $165,665,645 (15)
    2020 $ 73,428,704 ( 5) $ 80,584,972( 5) $216,269,251 ( 3)
    2019 $203,079,488 ( 3) $220,307,173 ( 3) $237,199,519 ( 2)
    2018 $182,406,139 ( 4) $198,733,661 ( 3) $193,316,649 ( 5 )

    I just assumed the number in parenthesis was the rankings.

    Opening Day payrolls compiled by Baseball Prospectus include salaries and pro-rated signing bonuses for players on the active 25/26-man roster and injured list. Deferred payments and performance and award bonuses are not included.

    Year End 40-man roster payrolls obtained by The Associated Press include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned performance and award bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions. Deferrals may be discounted to reflect present-day value.

    Year End Competitive Balance Tax payrolls obtained by The Associated Press include average annual value of contracts, earned bonuses, non-cash compensation, cash transactions, buyouts of unexercised options, and health and pension benefits. Deferrals may be discounted to reflect present-day value.
    That helps, but I feel lazy, today.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  5. #1955
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    That helps, but I feel lazy, today.
    You're best at these things.....

    I simply refuse to believe we are 'cheap'. I believe Bloom is trying to come up with 'core' group to go for multiple championships.

    In theory, we only have three players with multiple year contracts, Sale, Barnes and Xander. Xander can opt out after 2022.

    I believe Bloom will fill out the roster with key free agent signings as soon as the 'core' group is identified, hopefully Devers will be at the top of his list.

    That core group surely includes extending Devers and Eovaldi, along with Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta and Verdugo. I think he will retain Dalbec, expect Duran to get a shot at some point and Casas and Yorke to join the group. Plenty of minor league arms in the bullpen mix if not as a starter.

    I like what's happening with our farm system.
    Last edited by Nick; 01-17-2022 at 01:00 PM.
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  6. #1956
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    You're best at these things.....

    I simply refuse to believe we are 'cheap'. I believe Bloom is trying to come up with 'core' group to go for multiple championships.

    In theory, we only have three players with multiple year contracts, Sale, Barnes and Xander. Xander can opt out after 2022.

    I believe Bloom will fill out the roster with key free agent signings as soon as the 'core' group is identified, hopefully Devers will be at the top of his list.

    That core group surely includes extending Devers and Eovaldi, along with Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta and Verdugo. I think he will retain Dalbec, expect Duran to get a shot at some point and Casas and Yorke to join the group. Plenty of minor league arms in the bullpen mix if not as a starter.

    I like what's happening with our farm system.
    I agree.

    I do think Bloom prefers shorter term FA signings, but I think when the right player and time comes along, he will pounce.

    Certainly, last winter was not the right time. This winter, I'm not sure the right player was out there, and yes, we have some issues like Bogey and Devers to figure out, before we can know what our longer term finances will look like.

    I also think that because we did so well, last year, there is not an enormous pressure to go large and long on anyone. While one might view 2022 as a window closing season with Bogey, Eovaldi, Kike and others' team control expiring, and this being a good "time" to go large, I'm thinking maybe they view 2023 or 2024 as the best time to plan for major spending additions to push us over the top.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  7. #1957
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    I added the final budget rankings:

    (Note: Cots has different start of season rankings than my list provided.)

    Year Team Opening Day Payroll/Final
    2021 Braves 15th/14th
    2020 Dodgers 1st/1st
    2019 Nationals 3rd/4th
    2018 Red Sox 1st/1st
    2017 Astros 12th/18th
    2016 Cubs 4th/5th
    2015 Royals 12th/13th
    2014 Giants 10th/6th
    2013 Red Sox 3rd/3rd
    2012 Giants 8th/6th
    2011 Cardinals 11th/11th
    2010 Giants 10th/11th
    2009 Yankees 1st/1st
    2008 Phillies 14th/6th
    2007 Red Sox 2nd/2nd
    2006 Cardinals 11th/10th
    2005 White Sox 13th/13th
    2004 Red Sox 2nd/2nd
    2003 Marlins 25th/20th
    2002 Angels 15th/14th
    2001 D-backs 8th/4th
    2000 Yankees 1st/1st
    1999 Yankees 1st/N/A
    1998 Yankees 2nd- N/A
    1997 Marlins 7th- N/A
    1996 Yankees 1st- N/A
    1995 Braves 3rd- N/A

    It's interesting to note that the 2003 Marlins finished 20th in spending, so by that list, no team ever won a ring while finishing a season as a bottom 10 spender.

    13 of the last 22 WS winners spent in the top 6 by year's end. (Top 20% spenders won 59% of WS.)
    7 from 11-14th
    2 from 18-20th

    None from #7-10
    None from #15-17
    None from #21-30
    Last edited by moonslav59; 01-17-2022 at 02:00 PM.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  8. #1958
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I agree.

    I do think Bloom prefers shorter term FA signings, but I think when the right player and time comes along, he will pounce.

    Certainly, last winter was not the right time. This winter, I'm not sure the right player was out there, and yes, we have some issues like Bogey and Devers to figure out, before we can know what our longer term finances will look like.

    I also think that because we did so well, last year, there is not an enormous pressure to go large and long on anyone. While one might view 2022 as a window closing season with Bogey, Eovaldi, Kike and others' team control expiring, and this being a good "time" to go large, I'm thinking maybe they view 2023 or 2024 as the best time to plan for major spending additions to push us over the top.
    It’s going to take lots of pushing if Bogey, and Raffy aren’t around, and lots of money too. It could be a whole new look, and not necessarily a team that’s near, or over the top.

  9. #1959
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    It’s going to take lots of pushing if Bogey, and Raffy aren’t around, and lots of money too. It could be a whole new look, and not necessarily a team that’s near, or over the top.
    A ton of money comes off the books after 2022:
    Bogey, JD, Eovaldi, Kike, Vaz, Wacha, Hill

    If we don't spend, next winter, there will be hell to pay. (pun intended.)
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  10. #1960
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    A ton of money comes off the books after 2022:
    Bogey, JD, Eovaldi, Kike, Vaz, Wacha, Hill

    If we don't spend, next winter, there will be hell to pay. (pun intended.)
    You throw in Price, Paxton (say if he's still hurt and options not picked) and JBJ (unlikely but we eat the option money in 2022), that's total of $123M to rebuild the team.

    You're left with Barnes final year and Sale. Others will be either arbitration or pre-arbitration.

    What I would like to see personally is to go after the shortstop we want (that can play defense) and extend Devers and build a team around them.
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  11. #1961
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    You throw in Price, Paxton (say if he's still hurt and options not picked) and JBJ (unlikely but we eat the option money in 2022), that's total of $123M to rebuild the team.

    You're left with Barnes final year and Sale. Others will be either arbitration or pre-arbitration.

    What I would like to see personally is to go after the shortstop we want (that can play defense) and extend Devers and build a team around them.
    I'm all for ...

    Devers forevers

    An all around great SS or one that plays great D and adding a stud at another position.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  12. #1962
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'm all for ...

    Devers forevers

    An all around great SS or one that plays great D and adding a stud at another position.
    It will be great to have millions of dollars to spend, but my question is how did we get to this point. Just a few years ago the Red Sox were coming off a WS Championship with a fairly young outfield, a fairly young left side of the IF, and if Boggey, and Raffy aren’t retained that will be pretty much a whole makeover of the team in 2023.

  13. #1963
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    It will be great to have millions of dollars to spend, but my question is how did we get to this point. Just a few years ago the Red Sox were coming off a WS Championship with a fairly young outfield, a fairly young left side of the IF, and if Boggey, and Raffy aren’t retained that will be pretty much a whole makeover of the team in 2023.
    Many saw the writing on the wall, when DD went just about all-in. The farm was nearly emptied- glad he kept Devers and drafted well.

    Big contracts led to having to let Kimbrel and others go, needing to pay Eovaldi to "stay even," and paying Sale, knowing an injury was likely, at some point.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  14. #1964
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    It will be great to have millions of dollars to spend, but my question is how did we get to this point. Just a few years ago the Red Sox were coming off a WS Championship with a fairly young outfield, a fairly young left side of the IF, and if Boggey, and Raffy aren’t retained that will be pretty much a whole makeover of the team in 2023.
    We ended 2018 championship year with $239M in payroll and opened with $243M in 2019. I remind you that on paper our starting rotation was solid, E Rod (34), Porcello (32), Sale (25), Price (22) and Eovaldi (12). We had JD (.940 OPS), Xander (.939 OPS), Devers (.916) and Betts (.915) leading the offense. Both JBJ and Beni ranked lower half of AL in OPS. So much for that 'great' outfield fans make up as years go by.

    Just like that our run was over.

    We were up 2-1 in AL Championship Series with 2 games left up in Fenway. What more could you want?

    It was an incredible season as far as I was concerned. It's a credit to Sox organization to become competitive again so quickly.

    We complain too much.
    Last edited by Nick; 01-17-2022 at 08:14 PM.
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  15. #1965
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    We ended 2018 championship year with $239M in payroll and opened with $243M in 2019. I remind you that on paper our starting rotation was solid, E Rod (34), Porcello (32), Sale (25), Price (22) and Eovaldi (12). We had JD (.940 OPS), Xander (.939 OPS), Devers (.916) and Betts (.915) leading the offense. Both JBJ and Beni ranked lower half of AL in OPS. So much for that 'great' outfield fans make up as years go by.

    Just like that our run was over.

    We were up 2-1 in AL Championship Series with 2 games left up in Fenway. What more could you want?

    It was an incredible season as far as I was concerned. It's a credit to Sox organization to become competitive again so quickly.

    We complain too much.
    My only point was that it was a fairly young team in 2018 with home grown talent and if Bogey, and Raffy aren’t retained 2023 will be pretty much a whole new team in a few short years.

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