It’s the time of year when everything starts to Bloom.
It’s the time of year when everything starts to Bloom.
I'm not in favor of signing an old, expensive pitcher. Scherzer has a tired, dead arm and can't start with his club facing elimination. He won't be any younger a year from now.
Meanwhile, pre- primetimers like Vlad and Wander will be even better next season. Stop-gaps won't stop them. The best way for the Red Sox to compete with that kind of talent is to develop their own (including adding players to the system via trades). Bloom could go out and sign this year's version of Teixeira, CC and AJ -- Crankee trivia; see NY's last ring (before my son was born) -- and the Sox still may not get as far as they did this year.
I prefer dealing for a guy like Berrios -- someone 20-something, with upside, under control. Where are the candidates? Astute posters are already pointing to Oakland, Colorado and Miami...
I don't have the time to look into possible trade scenarios and free agent signings like many of you do.
I trust Bloom. I agree with his philosophy. That's enough for me.
It's going to be another interesting one. But once again we better be prepared to be patient. Bloom is not exactly a rapid-fire wheeler-dealer.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
What I want and what Bloom will do are two different things.....I trust Bloom. I really don't know much.
You start with what you have and make improvements.
C Vaz (no reason to think we won't pick up his option)
1B Dalbec (he has potential plus he's back up options for Devers, Casas and DH)
2B Arroyo (we may look to upgrade this position and make him a utility player)
SS Xander
3B Devers
LF Verdugo
CF Kike
RF Renfroe (he was a bargain at $3M)
DH JD
We'll know shortly after the World Series, what JD will do. Not too much concern here. If he opts out, we have $22M to play with. Next DH won't be that expensive.
SP Sale
SP Eovaldi
SP Pivetta
SP ????
SP ????
Again we'll know shortly the fate of E Rod.
Pen
Barnes (yep, we're stuck with him after giving him a $5M raise, his trade value is all time low)
Whitlock
Houck
Brasier
Darwinzon
Taylor
Sawamura
Valdez (?)
The bullpen may take work especially if one or two are moved to starter status
Is this lineup (assuming JD returns and E Rod stays) good enough to win the Division? We were 8 back. Probably not.
Pluses
We'll have Sale for entire year and he maybe improving.
I would expect Pivetta to continue to get better.
Eovaldi has become a pitcher, not just a guy that throws 100mph.
Minuses
Barnes falling off the ridge.
Not sure if defense can improve.
Last edited by Nick; 10-24-2021 at 10:00 AM.
I write fictional stories in my spare time. So don't fact check me. Better?
Nice summary.
I'm not sure I have ever seen an off season where just about all our free agents to be are additions by subtractions or close to it.
ERod is good, but at $18.5M (QO), there are likely pitchers similar to him that can be signed.
Ottavino's numbers were deceivingly good. He can be replaced at $8M.
As you pointed out, if JD opts out, we have $22M cleared from the lux tax ($19.4M in actual salary.)
A lot depends on what Bloom's winter budget is, what the new tax laws are going to be, and how Bloom spends the budget. It should be pointed out that Bloom swung and missed with a big chunk of his winter signings, last year, and a bigger budget does not mean he'll do better. He actually did worse with his biggest signings and additions:
$10M Richards
$8M Ottavino
$7M x 2 Kike (Great deal)
$6M Perez
$3M Marwin
$3M Andriese
$3M Renfroe (Great deal)
$2M Santana
$1.5M Sawamura (OK deal)
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All at once, yes... but a couple this year, then swap one for a couple more next year, then the next, and before you know it: you win 100 games and finish first without any full-time starting pitchers...
But that's just one method of bullpen-building. It can help you throw a shutout in the opener of the ALDS, but you also risk getting your doors blown in three straight when an opponent with a stacked line-up exploits a weak reliever or two who just aren't on in each day's endless parade to the mound.
I'm not sure what "deceivingly good" is supposed to convey here. Numbers that seemingly look good, but are kinda not? Numbers that are good, but you have to dig into them?
He had a 0.5 fWAR, 4.70 xFIP, 4.21 ERA. His GB% was below his career norms. His LOB% was below career norms. BABIP was slightly above career norms. K rate was average, but bb rate was higher.
When you did into his statcast numbers:
93rd percentile average exit velocity
95th percentile hard hit %
90th percentile xSLG
90th percentile Barrel %
7th percentile bb %
6th percentile chase rate
Whiff rate on his slider dropped 10 points. Put Away % on his slider dropped 12 points.
He got much more vertical movement on his slider, but it seemed to have caused players to recognize it better and lay off of it. At times, that pitch stayed well out of the zone. His slider used to be his out pitch, but it is much less effective now with a run value of -1. In 18 and 19, it had a run value of -14 and -11.
What does it all mean? IMO, Ottavino was ok. It was a fine season for him, but I think he's overpaid at his current salary. Batters are laying off his slider and no longer chasing it which is driving up his bb rate. If that slider is less effective, he's no longer a high leverage reliever.
He really was two different pitchers, this year.
Despite walking too many batters, all year, his OPS against was...
.574 in his first 159 PAs against (.301 BAbip) 2.68 ERA/1.297 WHIP
.948 in his last 117 PAs against (.349 BAbip) 6.48 ERA/1.680 WHIP
I guess what I meant by deceivingly good was that he was pretty good for most of the season.
His OPS against was under .637 for 4 months.
.856 in July (.440 BAbip)
1.152 in September (.333 BAbip)
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