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Thread: The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

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  1. #1
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

    Itís the time of year when everything starts to Bloom.

  2. #2
    I'm not in favor of signing an old, expensive pitcher. Scherzer has a tired, dead arm and can't start with his club facing elimination. He won't be any younger a year from now.

    Meanwhile, pre- primetimers like Vlad and Wander will be even better next season. Stop-gaps won't stop them. The best way for the Red Sox to compete with that kind of talent is to develop their own (including adding players to the system via trades). Bloom could go out and sign this year's version of Teixeira, CC and AJ -- Crankee trivia; see NY's last ring (before my son was born) -- and the Sox still may not get as far as they did this year.

    I prefer dealing for a guy like Berrios -- someone 20-something, with upside, under control. Where are the candidates? Astute posters are already pointing to Oakland, Colorado and Miami...

  3. #3
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    I'm not in favor of signing an old, expensive pitcher. Scherzer has a tired, dead arm and can't start with his club facing elimination. He won't be any younger a year from now.
    I agree on Scherzer. It's going to be a lot of money and his much more prone to breaking down and ineffectiveness as he ages. One day, his stuff will just fall off the cliff.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I agree on Scherzer. It's going to be a lot of money and his much more prone to breaking down and ineffectiveness as he ages. One day, his stuff will just fall off the cliff.
    Exactly. It happens to nearly every pitcher, and very frequently before they reach age 38. It's a major part of why I hate long term deals for starters in free agency, especially those on the wrong side of 30...

  5. #5
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    I don't have the time to look into possible trade scenarios and free agent signings like many of you do.

    I trust Bloom. I agree with his philosophy. That's enough for me.

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    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    It's going to be another interesting one. But once again we better be prepared to be patient. Bloom is not exactly a rapid-fire wheeler-dealer.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  7. #7
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    It's going to be another interesting one. But once again we better be prepared to be patient. Bloom is not exactly a rapid-fire wheeler-dealer.
    Especially considering the situation with the CBA. The only thing we'll know in the near future is about opt outs and QO's.

  8. #8
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Especially considering the situation with the CBA. The only thing we'll know in the near future is about opt outs and QO's.
    It's probably too late to change the QO thing for 2022, right?
    Sox 4 Ever

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    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    What I want and what Bloom will do are two different things.....I trust Bloom. I really don't know much.

    You start with what you have and make improvements.

    C Vaz (no reason to think we won't pick up his option)
    1B Dalbec (he has potential plus he's back up options for Devers, Casas and DH)
    2B Arroyo (we may look to upgrade this position and make him a utility player)
    SS Xander
    3B Devers
    LF Verdugo
    CF Kike
    RF Renfroe (he was a bargain at $3M)
    DH JD

    We'll know shortly after the World Series, what JD will do. Not too much concern here. If he opts out, we have $22M to play with. Next DH won't be that expensive.

    SP Sale
    SP Eovaldi
    SP Pivetta
    SP ????
    SP ????

    Again we'll know shortly the fate of E Rod.

    Pen
    Barnes (yep, we're stuck with him after giving him a $5M raise, his trade value is all time low)
    Whitlock
    Houck
    Brasier
    Darwinzon
    Taylor
    Sawamura
    Valdez (?)

    The bullpen may take work especially if one or two are moved to starter status

    Is this lineup (assuming JD returns and E Rod stays) good enough to win the Division? We were 8 back. Probably not.

    Pluses
    We'll have Sale for entire year and he maybe improving.
    I would expect Pivetta to continue to get better.
    Eovaldi has become a pitcher, not just a guy that throws 100mph.
    Minuses
    Barnes falling off the ridge.
    Not sure if defense can improve.
    Last edited by Nick; 10-24-2021 at 10:00 AM.
    Not over till the fat lady sings.

  10. #10
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    What I want and what Bloom will do are two different things.....I trust Bloom. I really don't know much.

    You start with what you have and make improvements.

    C Vaz (no reason to think we won't pick up his option)
    1B Dalbec (he has potential plus he's back up options for Devers, Casas and DH)
    2B Arroyo (we may look to upgrade this position and make him a utility player)
    SS Xander
    3B Devers
    LF Verdugo
    CF Kike
    RF Renfroe (he was a bargain at $3M)
    DH JD

    We'll know shortly after the World Series, what JD will do. Not too much concern here. If he opts out, we have $22M to play with. Next DH won't be that expensive.

    SP Sale
    SP Eovaldi
    SP Pivetta
    SP ????
    SP ????

    Again we'll know shortly the fate of E Rod.

    Pen
    Barnes (yep, we're stuck with him after giving him a $5M raise, his trade value is all time low)
    Whitlock
    Houck
    Brasier
    Darwinzon
    Taylor
    Sawamura
    Valdez (?)

    The bullpen may take work especially if one or two are moved to starter status

    Is this lineup (assuming JD returns and E Rod stays) good enough to win the Division? We were 8 back. Probably not.

    Pluses
    We'll have Sale for entire year and he maybe improving.
    I would expect Pivetta to continue to get better.
    Eovaldi has become a pitcher, not just a guy that throws 100mph.
    Minuses
    Barnes falling off the ridge.
    Not sure if defense can improve.
    Nice summary.

    I'm not sure I have ever seen an off season where just about all our free agents to be are additions by subtractions or close to it.

    ERod is good, but at $18.5M (QO), there are likely pitchers similar to him that can be signed.

    Ottavino's numbers were deceivingly good. He can be replaced at $8M.

    As you pointed out, if JD opts out, we have $22M cleared from the lux tax ($19.4M in actual salary.)

    A lot depends on what Bloom's winter budget is, what the new tax laws are going to be, and how Bloom spends the budget. It should be pointed out that Bloom swung and missed with a big chunk of his winter signings, last year, and a bigger budget does not mean he'll do better. He actually did worse with his biggest signings and additions:

    $10M Richards
    $8M Ottavino
    $7M x 2 Kike (Great deal)
    $6M Perez
    $3M Marwin
    $3M Andriese
    $3M Renfroe (Great deal)
    $2M Santana
    $1.5M Sawamura (OK deal)
    Sox 4 Ever

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post

    Ottavino's numbers were deceivingly good. He can be replaced at $8M.


    Something like ('21 salaries, in millions): Wisler $2 + Kittredge $1.5 + Anderson $1 + Fairbanks $.5 + Rasmussen $.5 + Feyereisen $.5 + Thompson $.5 + Chargois $.5 + Flemming $.5...

  12. #12
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Something like ('21 salaries, in millions): Wisler $2 + Kittredge $1.5 + Anderson $1 + Fairbanks $.5 + Rasmussen $.5 + Feyereisen $.5 + Thompson $.5 + Chargois $.5 + Flemming $.5...
    It's hard to acquire guys like that via trade an impossible via free agency.
    Sox 4 Ever

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    It's hard to acquire guys like that via trade an impossible via free agency.
    All at once, yes... but a couple this year, then swap one for a couple more next year, then the next, and before you know it: you win 100 games and finish first without any full-time starting pitchers...

    But that's just one method of bullpen-building. It can help you throw a shutout in the opener of the ALDS, but you also risk getting your doors blown in three straight when an opponent with a stacked line-up exploits a weak reliever or two who just aren't on in each day's endless parade to the mound.

  14. #14
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post

    Ottavino's numbers were deceivingly good. He can be replaced at $8M.
    I'm not sure what "deceivingly good" is supposed to convey here. Numbers that seemingly look good, but are kinda not? Numbers that are good, but you have to dig into them?

    He had a 0.5 fWAR, 4.70 xFIP, 4.21 ERA. His GB% was below his career norms. His LOB% was below career norms. BABIP was slightly above career norms. K rate was average, but bb rate was higher.

    When you did into his statcast numbers:

    93rd percentile average exit velocity
    95th percentile hard hit %
    90th percentile xSLG
    90th percentile Barrel %

    7th percentile bb %
    6th percentile chase rate

    Whiff rate on his slider dropped 10 points. Put Away % on his slider dropped 12 points.

    He got much more vertical movement on his slider, but it seemed to have caused players to recognize it better and lay off of it. At times, that pitch stayed well out of the zone. His slider used to be his out pitch, but it is much less effective now with a run value of -1. In 18 and 19, it had a run value of -14 and -11.

    What does it all mean? IMO, Ottavino was ok. It was a fine season for him, but I think he's overpaid at his current salary. Batters are laying off his slider and no longer chasing it which is driving up his bb rate. If that slider is less effective, he's no longer a high leverage reliever.

  15. #15
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I'm not sure what "deceivingly good" is supposed to convey here. Numbers that seemingly look good, but are kinda not? Numbers that are good, but you have to dig into them?

    He had a 0.5 fWAR, 4.70 xFIP, 4.21 ERA. His GB% was below his career norms. His LOB% was below career norms. BABIP was slightly above career norms. K rate was average, but bb rate was higher.

    When you did into his statcast numbers:

    93rd percentile average exit velocity
    95th percentile hard hit %
    90th percentile xSLG
    90th percentile Barrel %

    7th percentile bb %
    6th percentile chase rate

    Whiff rate on his slider dropped 10 points. Put Away % on his slider dropped 12 points.

    He got much more vertical movement on his slider, but it seemed to have caused players to recognize it better and lay off of it. At times, that pitch stayed well out of the zone. His slider used to be his out pitch, but it is much less effective now with a run value of -1. In 18 and 19, it had a run value of -14 and -11.

    What does it all mean? IMO, Ottavino was ok. It was a fine season for him, but I think he's overpaid at his current salary. Batters are laying off his slider and no longer chasing it which is driving up his bb rate. If that slider is less effective, he's no longer a high leverage reliever.
    He really was two different pitchers, this year.

    Despite walking too many batters, all year, his OPS against was...

    .574 in his first 159 PAs against (.301 BAbip) 2.68 ERA/1.297 WHIP

    .948 in his last 117 PAs against (.349 BAbip) 6.48 ERA/1.680 WHIP

    I guess what I meant by deceivingly good was that he was pretty good for most of the season.

    His OPS against was under .637 for 4 months.

    .856 in July (.440 BAbip)
    1.152 in September (.333 BAbip)
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