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Thread: 2022 Prospects

  1. #166
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Anyone get the sneaking suspicion that Bloom is essentially waiting to hand the DH spot to Dalbec and will likely keep Casas down until JDM moves on?
    I think he'll call up Casas regardless of JDM being on the roster. Dalbec probably should be a DH.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  2. #167
    I think there's a very good chance we don't see Casas until early 2023, and that's fine.

  3. #168
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    10 players with possible 2022 ETAs. Good sign.
    I don't see Groome or Bello making it this year.
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    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  4. #169
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I don't see Groome or Bello making it this year.
    That seems very suspect. As a general rule of thumb, people tend to over estimate how soon someone will make the majors AND how soon they will actually contribute in a meaningful way. They can't all be Mookie Betts.

  5. #170
    I don't think anyone will hold Casas back for long. He already proved himself last summer -- batting third for the Olympic team, playing with ex-big leaguers -- and was more ready, in my opinion, to handle a Boston promotion than Duran. I'm not ruling out a midseason trade of JD that may create a roster opening as a corresponding move, but don't anticipate the Sox or Bloom manipulating service time or worrying about age. They haven't with other top prospects in the past.

  6. #171
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    I don't think anyone will hold Casas back for long. He already proved himself last summer -- batting third for the Olympic team, playing with ex-big leaguers -- and was more ready, in my opinion, to handle a Boston promotion than Duran. I'm not ruling out a midseason trade of JD that may create a roster opening as a corresponding move, but don't anticipate the Sox or Bloom manipulating service time or worrying about age. They haven't with other top prospects in the past.
    Depends on a lot of things. First how Casas starts out the season, and then how Bobby D, and the Sox themselves are doing. I don’t think JD will be moved as long as the Sox are in contention. Any number of things could happen, and change at a moments notice like an injury.

  7. #172
    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    I don't think anyone will hold Casas back for long. He already proved himself last summer -- batting third for the Olympic team, playing with ex-big leaguers -- and was more ready, in my opinion, to handle a Boston promotion than Duran. I'm not ruling out a midseason trade of JD that may create a roster opening as a corresponding move, but don't anticipate the Sox or Bloom manipulating service time or worrying about age. They haven't with other top prospects in the past.
    I think it's almost a scientific fact that fans always think a prospect is ready before he actually is. I also don't think there's any evidence he's "more ready than Duran is" even by minor league at-bats, which isn't as telling as one would think.

    Casas has 33 at bats above AA ball, Duran had 244 with a higher OPS than Casas. I think we're just dreaming on Casas because he has that shiny #1 prospect tag. I think he's going to be stud.........but he could easily not be ready and that's ok.

  8. #173
    23 at-bats in the Olympics don't close the gap from effectively jumping from AA to the majors. He's still developing his power, only 14 home runs last year. People are saying he's the kind of hitter who will eventually hit 30 a year and I think and hope they're right but he only hit 14 last year mostly in AA and we're saying he's ready.

    Why do we never learn our lessons with prospects and always want them rushed as fans? Dalbec looked good enough down the stretch last year to allow Casas to come up in due time. No need to rush anyone. I'd rather have him start the season in 2023 more ready and get that extra draft pick per the new rules of starting rookies and getting picks in the finish high in ROY/MVP voting.

    Still, I think there's decent chance we see him at the end of this year. If there are injuries and he's mashing he will get the call up. I'd set the over/under on July 20th. I'll take the over.

  9. #174
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    I think it's almost a scientific fact that fans always think a prospect is ready before he actually is. I also don't think there's any evidence he's "more ready than Duran is" even by minor league at-bats, which isn't as telling as one would think.
    Yes, we had some fresh proof of that with Duran last year.
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  10. #175
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    23 at-bats in the Olympics don't close the gap from effectively jumping from AA to the majors. He's still developing his power, only 14 home runs last year. People are saying he's the kind of hitter who will eventually hit 30 a year and I think and hope they're right but he only hit 14 last year mostly in AA and we're saying he's ready.

    Why do we never learn our lessons with prospects and always want them rushed as fans? Dalbec looked good enough down the stretch last year to allow Casas to come up in due time. No need to rush anyone. I'd rather have him start the season in 2023 more ready and get that extra draft pick per the new rules of starting rookies and getting picks in the finish high in ROY/MVP voting.

    Still, I think there's decent chance we see him at the end of this year. If there are injuries and he's mashing he will get the call up. I'd set the over/under on July 20th. I'll take the over.
    14 HR in 86 games.

    Prorated to 162 games, that's 26 HR's. His 2019 stats prorate to 27 HR's.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  11. #176
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    14 HR in 86 games.

    Prorated to 162 games, that's 26 HR's. His 2019 stats prorate to 27 HR's.
    Duran posted even better numbers - 19 in 82 games at AA, 16 in 60 games at AAA.
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  12. #177
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    14 HR in 86 games.

    Prorated to 162 games, that's 26 HR's. His 2019 stats prorate to 27 HR's.
    Ok, but that was in Low A 3 years ago now. He has power, that's without question, I'm just not convinced he's ready for the majors and if he is at some point this year I'm not convinced the team is going to bring him up unless there's also a need.

    There's a stronger incentive to start a prospect at the beginning of the season and let him play all year. If you don't have a need for him at the MLB level come August, why burn the roster spot on the 40 man. So I also question whether or not the Sox are going to bring him up. I don't think it's out of the question he comes up with, nor do I think it's highly unlikely....but I think it's very plausible we don't see him until next year.

    Regardless, my point is the same. We can take Casas out and throw a different name in there. Later in the year we will be talking about Yorke, in a year or two it will be Mayer....or whoever is hitting well in A/AA ball that the news reports as a top prospects. We always want guys to be ready and it's really easy to use minor league stats as anecdotal evidence that they're.

  13. #178
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Duran posted even better numbers - 19 in 82 games at AA, 16 in 60 games at AAA.
    I feel as if more often than not prospects come up and at the very least struggle for a month or two before they get grounded. A good example of that on this current team is Xander Bogaerts.

  14. #179
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    I think Duran's offense will come around. His tinkering with his swing may have slowed the progress, some.

    I'm most worried about his defense. He reminds me of Ellsbury, who started out being average, at best on D, but he turned into a plus fielder after a few years.
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  15. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Duran posted even better numbers - 19 in 82 games at AA, 16 in 60 games at AAA.
    There have been many more concerns about Duran's hit tool than there has been for Casas.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

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