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Thread: A Realistic View at 2022: Part II

  1. #1846
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    It sure looks that way.

    It seems it's time, or past time, to pull the plug.
    Way past his “Use By” date.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  2. #1847
    Brasier is not the worst. He is basically just your typical ham and egger. Some days he will be okay, other days he will not. He is a part of this rag - tag bullpen. A bullpen that does not have a lot of talent and almost no structure. It's always " a wing and a prayer " with this pen.
    Old school is good school.

  3. #1848
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Thanks for your thoughtful responses.......

    Now we can move forward.

    Point #1 No, I don't want Xander back. Giving him a $10M raise won't give Sox additional productivity. It's too risky. Story has it covered.

    Point #2 Devers is in our wheelhouse in terms of 'core group' age wise. We build a team around him. I'd suggest we use Xander's $20M to give Devers a lifetime contract. He's a natural born hitter. I'd take a risk on a 10year contract. And his defense is improving. He will always hit.

    Point #3 Absolutely no freaking hell to signing a $15M closer. There's no sure thing in life and closers are the worst. I'm pretty happy with our $30M budget for our pen. Develop young arms as starters....most will become relievers. If it's not working now then it's only because Barnes, Dieckman and Robles failed.

    Point #4 I think Eovaldi has maxed out. He won't get any better but may regress. If Paxton and/or Sale is ready to go, we may get a nice return for Eovadi at trade deadline.

    Point #5 Thumbs up on Wacha. Good scouting on changes he made last few weeks of last season.

    Cordero is growing on me. Dalbec should be a platoon candidate. I'd like see one more guy and that's Ryan Fitzgerald. He's carried his spring training hot bat to AAA.

    Let's see if newly added (40 man roster) Josh Schreiber sees save situations. Give him credit. He throws strikes.

    ONLY 4 1/2 GAMES BACK.
    So you say get rid of Bogey and keep Cordero. (I'll keep that in mind in judging anything else you say.)
    I owe Bellhorn04 $100 (virtual), which I will pay off with two tix to a Seadogs game in 2021.

  4. #1849
    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    Brasier is not the worst. He is basically just your typical ham and egger. Some days he will be okay, other days he will not. He is a part of this rag - tag bullpen. A bullpen that does not have a lot of talent and almost no structure. It's always " a wing and a prayer " with this pen.
    Agree entirely. He is the embodiment of this "new vision" for the RS.
    I owe Bellhorn04 $100 (virtual), which I will pay off with two tix to a Seadogs game in 2021.

  5. #1850
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jad View Post
    Agree entirely. He is the embodiment of this "new vision" for the RS.
    Except he's a DD hold-over guy.
    Sox 4 Ever

  6. #1851
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    The next few weeks could be make or break time.

    Home for 3 V HOU and 4 V SEA
    Day off
    3 @ CWS
    Home for 4 v BAL in 3 days and 2 v CIN.
    Day off
    Dreaded 9 game west coast road trip
    Sox 4 Ever

  7. #1852
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jad View Post
    So you say get rid of Bogey and keep Cordero. (I'll keep that in mind in judging anything else you say.)
    You are a fucking idiot.

    You don't keep Xavier at $180M/6 years.

    You keep Cordero around for now because he costs us NOTHING.

    You're fucking idiot for thinking I was comparing Xavier to Codero.

    Go put me on your IGNORE.

    I got nothing to say to a fucking idiot.

    Don't ever respond to my posts. I'll do the same to yours.
    Last edited by Nick; 05-15-2022 at 06:21 PM.
    Not over till the fat lady sings.

  8. #1853
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    Brasier is not the worst. He is basically just your typical ham and egger. Some days he will be okay, other days he will not. He is a part of this rag - tag bullpen. A bullpen that does not have a lot of talent and almost no structure. It's always " a wing and a prayer " with this pen.
    Brasier ranks in the one percentile among major league pitchers in hard hit percentage, per Baseball Savant. The average exit velocity against him is in the two percentile.

    No, he ranks as one of our worst. WHIP or by any other measures. In a low batting average era, he's giving up .300 batting average.
    Last edited by Nick; 05-15-2022 at 06:27 PM.
    Not over till the fat lady sings.

  9. #1854
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    To me , saying you don't want to spend on a closer makes no sense. A good closer is a big component of a winning team. You might as well say you don't want to spend on a starter , left fielder or third baseman , etc. 15 million is pretty much the going rate for a top closer these days. Things cost what they cost.
    I'm pretty sure when Sox extended Barnes, they thought he'd be the closer. He's making over $9M. That's pretty much closer money.

    Yeah, I want an All-Star at every position but that's not monetarily feasible.

    Instead of blurting out what we want, there's a tradeoff and that should be addressed.

    Our luxury tax payroll is $240M. Tell me what you're willing to give up to gain a $15M closer.
    Last edited by Nick; 05-15-2022 at 06:26 PM.
    Not over till the fat lady sings.

  10. #1855
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I'm pretty sure when Sox extended Barnes, they thought he'd be the closer. He's making over $9M. That's pretty much closer money.

    Yeah, I want an All-Star at every position but that's not monetarily feasible.

    Instead of blurting out what we want, there's a tradeoff and that should be addressed.

    Our luxury tax payroll is $240M. Tell me what you're willing to give up to gain a $15M closer.
    Nick , When I get the time I will try to work up a budget for you. A budget that has room for an expensive closer and a way to retain Bogaerts and Devers. It shouldn't be too hard , since other teams have been able to manage this sort of thing. In the meantime , I suggest you try decaf.
    Old school is good school.

  11. #1856
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I'm pretty sure when Sox extended Barnes, they thought he'd be the closer. He's making over $9M. That's pretty much closer money.

    Yeah, I want an All-Star at every position but that's not monetarily feasible.

    Instead of blurting out what we want, there's a tradeoff and that should be addressed.

    Our luxury tax payroll is $240M. Tell me what you're willing to give up to gain a $15M closer.
    With over $15M going to player benefits, it might actually just be about $225 for player contracts. With some going to arbs and the lower 40man roster players, it's even lower. Here's what cots has for 2023 ... (assuming Bogey becomes a FA)

    25.6 Sale
    23.3 Story
    16.0 Player Benefits
    9.4 Barnes
    9.0 Paxton option ($13M-4 option counted towards 2022)
    4.7 Whitlock
    4.0 Diekman
    TOTAL: $92M

    JBJ Option ($8M buy out counted before 2023 or $12M for '23- $4M towards lux)
    Sawamura Option ($3M club option w $600K buyout)
    (I won't count these on the budget for 2023.)

    Est Arbs:
    20 Devers (3 of 3 arbs)
    6.0 Verdugo (2 of 3)
    5.5 Pivetta (2 of 3)
    2.5 Arroyo (2 of 3)
    1.6 Taylor (2 of 4)
    1.2 Cordero (2 of 3)
    1.1 Davis (1 of 3)
    1.0 Valdez (1 of 3)
    TOTAL: About $40M

    +3M for 40man roster players

    $135M TOTAL

    This leaves us about $100M to go $3M over the Lux line or about $110M to be about even with this year's lux budget. Let's say it's $105M to spend, just for argument's sake. No Bogey, JD, Eovaldi, JBJ, Kike, Vaz, Wacha, Hill, Strahm or Plawecki- not that we can't re-sign some of these guys. Here's a guideline of what we have going into 2023 (assuming no trades and only FA signings.):

    SP1 ____ $28M _____
    SP2 Whitlock
    SP3 Sale
    SP4 Paxton
    SP5 Pivetta
    SP6 Bello, Winckowski, Seabold, Murphy, Walter, Groome

    Closer ____$10M____
    RP2 Houck
    RP3 ____ $6M ___
    RP3 ____$5M ___
    RP4 Tayor
    RP5 Barnes
    RP6 Diekman
    RP7 Davis
    RP8 Valdez, Danish, Crawford, German, Politi, Feltman (SP)

    C ____$11M _____
    C2 Wong, RHern, Cottam
    1B Casas
    2B ____$12M ____, Arroyo
    3B Devers, Fitzy/Arauz
    SS Story, Downs
    LF Verdugo, Duran
    CF ____ $18 ____
    RF ____ $15 ____
    DH Dalbec, Cordero

    This is just a template with some numbers thrown in that total $105M. We may trade to fill some slots. We may have a more or less restrictive budget. It is only speculation.
    Sox 4 Ever

  12. #1857
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    Nick , When I get the time I will try to work up a budget for you. A budget that has room for an expensive closer and a way to retain Bogaerts and Devers. It shouldn't be too hard , since other teams have been able to manage this sort of thing. In the meantime , I suggest you try decaf.
    If we go $15M for a closer, $27M for Bogey and not count a Devers extension towards 2023, we'd have this, assuming around $105M to spend.

    $27M Bogey
    $27M Ace
    $15M Closer
    $10M Catcher
    $10M CF
    $10M RF
    $6M RP

    If you want to talk Devers, we may only lose Barnes's money after 2024, so extending him and Bogey puts a deeper squeeze on 2023 spending, perhaps.

    I await your template. (Yes, it can be done, but who do we get for CF, RF, C and SP at greatly reduced prices?)

    Sox 4 Ever

  13. #1858
    How many years would Hang’em Chaim be willing to give to eovaldi to resign?

  14. #1859
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Cook View Post
    How many years would Hang’em Chaim be willing to give to eovaldi to resign?
    I'm guessing 2- maybe 3.
    Sox 4 Ever

  15. #1860
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Cook View Post
    How many years would Hang’em Chaim be willing to give to eovaldi to resign?
    A better question: How many years is John Henry willing to give Hang' em Chaim?
    Old school is good school.

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