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Thread: A Realistic View at 2022: Part II

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  1. #1
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    A Realistic View at 2022: Part II

    The season is about to start and the roster is just about set.

    A wild and crazy winter has reshuffled the deck for a lot of teams, but they Sox remain in the mix for a playoff slot and possibly more, if more goes right than wrong.

    I'm projecting the AL East as such:

    94 TOR
    92 BOS
    90 NYY
    86 TBR
    60 BAL

    Here's an optimistic view, but within the range of "realism:"

    My 2022 Projections (based on good health)
    PA Player OPS
    650 Devers .900
    650 Bogey .880
    650 Story .850
    625 JD M .840
    650 Verdugo .800
    650 Kike .800
    550 Dalbec .790
    450 Vaz .760
    350 Arroyo .750
    350 Duran .740
    175 Plawecki .700
    550 Shaw, Casas, Wong, Arauz & others .650

    IP Pitcher ERA
    180 Eovaldi 3.90
    170 Pivetta 4.30
    150 Sale 3.20
    130 Wacha
    120 Houck 3.40
    110 Hill
    100 Whitlock 3.40
    60 Barnes
    50 Taylor
    50 Brasier
    50 Diekman
    50 Strahm
    50 Sawamura
    130+ DHern, Davis, Valdez and others 5.00

    Let the games begin!

    Link to Part I:

    https://www.talksox.com/forum/thread...at-2022-Part-I


    Last edited by moonslav59; 03-30-2022 at 09:50 PM.
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  2. #2
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    The 2022 Lux Tax Budget

    25.6 Sale
    23.3 Story
    22.0 JD
    20.0 Bogey
    17.0 Eovaldi
    16.0 Price
    12.0 JBJ
    11.2 Devers
    10.0 Paxton
    9.4 Barnes
    7.0 Vaz
    7.0 Wacha
    7.0 Kike
    5.0 Hill
    4.0 Diekman
    3.6 Verdugo
    3.0 Strahm
    2.7 Pivetta
    1.5 Sawamura
    1.4 Brasier
    1.2 Arroyo
    1.0 Taylor
    2.8 0-3 yr players
    1.7 0-3 yr player bonus pool
    16.0 Player Benefits

    $235.8M ($5.8M over the first tax line)
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  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The 2022 Lux Tax Budget

    25.6 Sale
    23.3 Story
    22.0 JD
    20.0 Bogey
    17.0 Eovaldi
    16.0 Price
    12.0 JBJ
    11.2 Devers
    10.0 Paxton
    9.4 Barnes
    7.0 Vaz
    7.0 Wacha
    7.0 Kike
    5.0 Hill
    4.0 Diekman
    3.6 Verdugo
    3.0 Strahm
    2.7 Pivetta
    1.5 Sawamura
    1.4 Brasier
    1.2 Arroyo
    1.0 Taylor
    2.8 0-3 yr players
    1.7 0-3 yr player bonus pool
    16.0 Player Benefits

    $235.8M ($5.8M over the first tax line)
    This is an interesting list...Right now Sale's contract looks like a poor choice. I hope Im wrong but I fear that 2-3 years from now we will still be talking about him with some injury and even worse-that he becomes a target for our disdain due to the large contract we offered even when he clearly wasnt 100% physically. I hope it doesnt get like that because I admire his guts/etc...but right now, looks like a very poorly spent 5/145.

  4. #4
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Holland will not opt out. Shaw might make the team and will also not opt out, if he doesn't:

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/...contracts.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Holland will not opt out. Shaw might make the team and will also not opt out, if he doesn't:

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/...contracts.html
    HEy, a little depth never hurt. And their promises to not opt-out don't give them that advantage in the pecking order for being called up...

  6. #6
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    The 40 man roster still has a few tweaks to go through by opening day.

    Adding Shaw, Robles, Holland, Cordero, Refsnyder, Stewart or others will force a DFA or 60 day IL placement, but here is the 40 man, as of today, according to sxoprospects.com:

    Projected 28 Man Opening Day Roster:

    60 Day IL: Paxton
    IL: Sale & Taylor

    SP: Eovaldi, Houck, Pivetta, Wacha & Hill
    RP/SP: Whitlock & Crawford
    RP: Barnes, Brasier, Diekman, Strahm, Sawamura, Davis, DHern, Valdez
    1. Kike CF
    2. Devers 3B
    3. Bogey SS
    4. Story 2B
    5. JD DH
    6. Verdugo LF
    7. Dalbec 1B
    8. Vaz C
    9. JBJ RF
    Bench: Arroyo, Shaw, Plawecki, Cordero

    DFA (for Shaw & Cordero): Ralph Garza & Bazardo

    the remaining 10:
    Duran
    Bello
    Mata
    Winckowski
    Groome
    Downs
    Wong
    R Hernandez
    Seabold
    Arauz




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  7. #7
    So 22% of the budget is going to three pitchers who won't be with the team Opening Day (Sale), until midseason (Paxton), or ever again (Price).

    When Price comes off the books, maybe Bloom can just transfer the additional $16M to Bogaerts' account... and hopefully JD's $22 to Devers. Now, whichever poster on the board is an alias for Sam Kennedy can type, "We want them to be Red Sox in perpetuity; no, really."

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    I don't know folks but I'm starting to get excited about baseball again. The starting lineup on the field yesterday was very very impressive looking. When you have a hitter with the potential power that Bobby Dalbec has hitting in the 7 hole life might be interesting. Sounds like Story was impressed with what he saw.

  9. #9
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cp176 View Post
    I don't know folks but I'm starting to get excited about baseball again. The starting lineup on the field yesterday was very very impressive looking. When you have a hitter with the potential power that Bobby Dalbec has hitting in the 7 hole life might be interesting. Sounds like Story was impressed with what he saw.
    I feel the same way. Spring is such a great season!
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    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I feel the same way. Spring is such a great season!
    Yeah, until the real games start and everybody gets bummed out by something like getting swept by the O's to start the season...
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  11. #11
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Yeah, until the real games start and everybody gets bummed out by something like getting swept by the O's to start the season...
    We could win the first games 10-0 and some will still find something to criticize.
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    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    We could win the first games 10-0 and some will still find something to criticize.
    Bullpen looks shaky. Can't trust the rotation's health. JD swooned after the first month last season!
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    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Yeah, until the real games start and everybody gets bummed out by something like getting swept by the O's to start the season...
    They won't be swept by Baltimore until at least the end of April/early May now. Whew...

    I'm sure we'll all be much more sane if they just get swept by the scrub team they open this season with.
    LA face, Oakland booty...

  14. #14
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    @IanMBrowne
    Alex Cora says the competition for the final two spots on the bench is still wide open. Arauz, Shaw, Refsnyder, Franchy and Yolmer Sanchez all remain in camp fighting for a spot. Arauz is already on the 40 man so IMO, he has inside track on third bench spot. 4th spot a scramble.


    Shaw vs Refsnyder vs Franchy vs Yolmer?

    I think Yolmer and Arauz serve the same purpose. I don't like Refsnyder. Franchy or Shaw? Franchy is LHB, can play OF and experimented at 1B. Shaw is LHB, can play 1B/3B and has some experience in the OF. I want to give Franchy another shot, but he was terrible last year. At the start of his horrible season, he only produced a 32 wRC+ and was promptly sent down. When he was called up at the end of the year after getting substantial run in AAA, he still only produced a 32 wRC+.

    I think they'll keep Shaw around.
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    Shaw and Arauz.


    I liked Yolmer Sanchez as a starter, but that was before Story came on board.

    I think Shaw gets the other spot. Sanchez didnít bring much you donít get from Arauz, who is already a lesser version of Christian Arroyo.

    Not sure what they see in Refsnyder at all. I mean, if you want a RHH OF to platoon with Bradley, why get one who is worse than Bradley vs LHP and a massive drop defensively as well?

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