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Thread: A Realistic View at 2022: Part II

  1. #3091
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'm glad we didn't trade Duran, but trading guys with upside, which other GMs are aware of, is what brings back the most return.

    Let's also remember, this is abut a 50 PA sample size, this season, which is less than half last season's sample.

    I'm optimistic Duran can do well, going forward, but let's not assume it's a given, just yet.

    Yes, people give up on players, often. I do, too. I gave up on Chavis and Martin Perez.

    I'd say Cora andBloom have showed just about the right amount of patience as has been called for.
    Not sold on Chavis. Perez seems like great one year rental, permanently.

    I just see better plate discipline from Duran. He has speed for sure but it's definitely an adventure in center field for him.
    Not over till the fat lady sings.

  2. #3092
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    I'm all about player controlled years.....you can't project talent, not all will remain a Red Sox but at least you know who maybe available. I'm counting 'team' option years here.

    Controlled through 2028 (six more years after 2022 season)
    Trevor Story (he's a terrific fielder and I can see him moved to outfield IF that's what the Sox needs to accommodate someone like Nick Yorke, unless of course he become our next shortstop)
    Garret Whitlock
    Jarren Duran
    Josh Winckowski (looks like a major league pitcher)

    Controlled through 2027
    Tanner Houck

    Controlled through 2026
    Bobby Dalbec
    John Schreiber (relievers are unpredictable but he sure looks he belongs this year)

    Controlled through 2025
    Chris Sale
    Josh Taylor

    Controlled through 2024
    Nick Pivetta (Let's wait until season is over but should explore extension if healthy)
    James Paxton (has club options for 2023-24)

    I'm missing some, like Darwinzon Hernandez (who may never come back) or players I don't consider worthy.

    This also shows Bloom has financial flexibility going forward. Very few long term deals on the books. I only see Story, Whitlock and Sale in that category. And Whitlock comes cheap.

    I anxiously wait someone like Bello joining this group.

    Will Xander join the group? Devers better join this group.
    Not over till the fat lady sings.

  3. #3093
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Not sold on Chavis. Perez seems like great one year rental, permanently.

    I just see better plate discipline from Duran. He has speed for sure but it's definitely an adventure in center field for him.
    It hurts that Verdugo and Duran seem only suitable for LF. Both plus JBJ bat lefty, so even a platoon does not work.

    I also want to add that those of us who suggested maybe trading him for a pitcher are not "giving up on him" or undervaluing him. We wanted very good returns for him.
    Sox 4 Ever

  4. #3094
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'd say Cora and Bloom have showed just about the right amount of patience as has been called for.
    Yep, that's the bottom line. And all our opinions here are strictly to amuse ourselves.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  5. #3095
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I'm all about player controlled years.....you can't project talent, not all will remain a Red Sox but at least you know who maybe available. I'm counting 'team' option years here.

    Controlled through 2028 (six more years after 2022 season)
    Trevor Story (he's a terrific fielder and I can see him moved to outfield IF that's what the Sox needs to accommodate someone like Nick Yorke, unless of course he become our next shortstop)
    Garret Whitlock
    Jarren Duran
    Josh Winckowski (looks like a major league pitcher)

    Controlled through 2027
    Tanner Houck

    Controlled through 2026
    Bobby Dalbec
    John Schreiber (relievers are unpredictable but he sure looks he belongs this year)

    Controlled through 2025
    Chris Sale
    Josh Taylor

    Controlled through 2024
    Nick Pivetta (Let's wait until season is over but should explore extension if healthy)
    James Paxton (has club options for 2023-24)

    I'm missing some, like Darwinzon Hernandez (who may never come back) or players I don't consider worthy.

    This also shows Bloom has financial flexibility going forward. Very few long term deals on the books. I only see Story, Whitlock and Sale in that category. And Whitlock comes cheap.

    I anxiously wait someone like Bello joining this group.

    Will Xander join the group? Devers better join this group.
    Verdugo is controlled through 2024.

    Minor players:
    Arroyo, Cordero, Refsnyder through '24
    Davis through '25
    Crawford, Valdez and others through '26 or beyond
    Sox 4 Ever

  6. #3096
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Yep, that's the bottom line. And all our opinions here are strictly to amuse ourselves.
    There is a wide range of patience levels on this site, and some vary from player to player.
    Sox 4 Ever

  7. #3097
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    There is a wide range of patience levels on this site, and some vary from player to player.
    And game to game.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  8. #3098
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    And game to game.
    Even within a game! Even an inning, for some.
    Sox 4 Ever

  9. #3099
    We have to sign bogey and devers. They are elite corner stones of this offense.

    The next wave of prospects is not quite ready for prime time but coming faster than expected.

    Rafeala
    Bello
    Politi
    German
    Cassas
    Binelas
    Walter
    Seabold
    Winkowski
    Crawford
    Murphy
    Castellaneous

    Hang’em Chaim’s remake of the minor hitting system is beyond amazing! The pitching side, not so much yet!

  10. #3100
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Cook View Post
    We have to sign bogey and devers. They are elite corner stones of this offense.

    The next wave of prospects is not quite ready for prime time but coming faster than expected.

    Rafeala
    Bello
    Politi
    German
    Cassas
    Binelas
    Walter
    Seabold
    Winkowski
    Crawford
    Murphy
    Castellaneous

    Hang’em Chaim’s remake of the minor hitting system is beyond amazing! The pitching side, not so much yet!
    Can't complain about the Winkster so far.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  11. #3101
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    There are other great or very good players available, this winter.

    We don't need to lock in on both of our starts, but losing both would hurt. I can't see how we replace Bogey and Devers without the name Judge being involved.

    If I had to choose, I'd go with Devers, but there is a way we can build an equally strong team without either.
    Sox 4 Ever

  12. #3102
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    It would be malfeasance not to make a very serious offer to Devers with so much money getting freed up.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  13. #3103
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    There are other great or very good players available, this winter.

    We don't need to lock in on both of our starts, but losing both would hurt. I can't see how we replace Bogey and Devers without the name Judge being involved.

    If I had to choose, I'd go with Devers, but there is a way we can build an equally strong team without either.
    Just say “no” to signing judge. That would be a sandavol sized mistake.

  14. #3104
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    This morning I took a gander at two lists--the WAR rankings of hitters and pitchers in MLB as of today and the top 2022 player salaries.

    I discovered the very unsurprising truth that there is little correlation between the two lists. Big bucks does not mean big performance. Big contracts are based on past performance, for which the players have already been paid and under the false assumption that performance will continue.

    In bold font are the four WAR's I think come close to matching the big salaries.

    Buyer beware.

    1. Scherzer @$43 is hurt and unproductive.
    2. Trout @ $37M is, as almost always, right up there at the top in production: 2d in WAR with 4.2.
    3. Rendon, $36M (Angels), is a bust at WAR .9 and an OPS of .707.
    4. Cole, $36M, the Yankees presumptive ace, has a WAR, 1.9, lower than both Pivetta and Wacha and is ranked 25th in MLB pitching.
    4. DeGrom, Mets, $36M, no games pitched, so he almost makes Scherzer look like a bargain.
    6. Bauer, $35M, Dodgers, is suspended for 2 seasons an presumably will not be paid.
    7. Correa, Twins, $35M, WAR 1.9, 58 games, OPS .821
    8. Strasburg, $35M, Nationals, WAR -.3, 1 start.
    8. Arenado, Cardinals, $35M, WAR 3.5, a consistent performer
    10. Lindor, Mets, $34M, WAR 1.9 (5th best on Mets), 72 games, OPS .753
    11. Seager, Rangers, $33M, WAR 1.4, 68 games, OPS 725
    12. Machado, $32M, WAR 3.9, 5th best in MLB
    12. Price, $32M, Dodgers (and Sox), WAR .1
    12. Cabrera, $32M, Tigers, WAR .1
    15. Sale, Boston, $30M, yet to pitch in 2022
    16. Springer, Jays, $30M, WAR 2.0, 49th best in MLB
    17. Stanton, Yankees, $29M, WAR 1.1
    17. Altuve, Astros, $29M, WAR 1.9, 59 games, OPS .879
    19. Harper, Phillies, $28M, WAR 2.6, OPS .985,
    20. Freeman, Dodgers, $27M, WAR 2.4

  15. #3105
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Verdugo is controlled through 2024.

    Minor players:
    Arroyo, Cordero, Refsnyder through '24
    Davis through '25
    Crawford, Valdez and others through '26 or beyond
    Definitely missed on Verdugo. Others were intentionally missed. I like to see Refsynder work out in infield. I heard he was an infielder at some point. That will improve his marketability, even with the Sox. I like him more than I do Arroyo.
    Not over till the fat lady sings.

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