Wacha phenomenon

[jacksonianmarch]

Michael Wacha has been dynamite in his first 5 starts in Boston. The question is, has he regained his status as a front line starter like he was in StL or is this some smoke and mirrors shit.

Wacha's best season was in 2017 when his average FB was 95.1. He slipped into the 93 range and lost effectiveness. Last year, he bumped up to 93.8 but this year is down to 92.9. So he isn't experiencing a velocity spike

When Wacha was at his best, he was a 8.5K/9IP player. Last year he was near 9. This year, just 6.58. So no change in K rate

Wacha's best season saw a BB rate of 2.99/9IP. Last year was down to 2.24. This year, he is at 3.81, near his career high.

So if his velo isnt spiking and he isn't King more or BBing less, why is he so damn dominant?

Look at two stats here. Wacha's career HR rate is 1.12 per 9IP. From 19-21, it was at 2.0 average. This year, it is 0.69/9IP. Is he getting more ground balls? Yes, 5% more GB's, albeit right at his career AVG. FB% has stayed the same. LD% has dropped from 25-20%. He's avoiding hard contact

Second one is BABIP. Career BABIP is right at .300. This year, he's at .146. So you know what this means? If he continues on this run he is on and the sox drop from contention, it would behoove Bloom to trade him ASAP before the cat jumps out of the bag.

[mvp 78]

Why would you put a cat in the bag, you monster?

[Old Red]

Somebody on here kept calling Wacha Whack a after he was signed, and so far boy have they been wrong.

[mvp 78]

Wacha's hard hit % is 35.3 which is basically what it was from 2015-19.

His xERA is 3.15, so it'd be dumb to not expect some sort of regression.

One of the bigger changes is the pitches he's throwing. His cutter had a +12 run value (yuck) and was his worst pitch last year. He's almost cut it's usage in half. Probably needs to cut it even more since it has a hard hit % of 53.8 this season and has a .624 SLG. Cut it with the Cutter!

[moonslav59]

Wacha's hard hit % is 35.3 which is basically what it was from 2015-19.

His xERA is 3.15, so it'd be dumb to not expect some sort of regression.

One of the bigger changes is the pitches he's throwing. His cutter had a +12 run value (yuck) and was his worst pitch last year. He's almost cut it's usage in half. Probably needs to cut it even more since it has a hard hit % of 53.8 this season and has a .624 SLG. Cut it with the Cutter!

BAbip:

.306 2013-2021

.162 2022

[jacksonianmarch]

Big picture here is he’s the Sox version of Shawn Chacon from 2006. The guy was a magician. K rate sucked. Walk rate wasn’t good. He just happened to have that magical season with the Yanks where every bounce went right. Wheels fell off the following season. When you’ve got a guy who’s literally lucky to be performing at that level, you should find a way to cash in on it, especially if you fall out of contention

[Bellhorn04]

Big picture here is he’s the Sox version of Shawn Chacon from 2006. The guy was a magician. K rate sucked. Walk rate wasn’t good. He just happened to have that magical season with the Yanks where every bounce went right. Wheels fell off the following season. When you’ve got a guy who’s literally lucky to be performing at that level, you should find a way to cash in on it, especially if you fall out of contention

Thanks doc.

[notin]

Somebody on here kept calling Wacha Whack a after he was signed, and so far boy have they been wrong.

If nothing else, it is impressive how you call yourself out. And do so without being prompted…

[Bellhorn04]

If nothing else, it is impressive how you call yourself out. And do so without being prompted…

Although he's never let up on "Flintstone Schwaber".

[notin]

Michael Wacha has been dynamite in his first 5 starts in Boston. The question is, has he regained his status as a front line starter like he was in StL or is this some smoke and mirrors shit.

Wacha's best season was in 2017 when his average FB was 95.1. He slipped into the 93 range and lost effectiveness. Last year, he bumped up to 93.8 but this year is down to 92.9. So he isn't experiencing a velocity spike

When Wacha was at his best, he was a 8.5K/9IP player. Last year he was near 9. This year, just 6.58. So no change in K rate

Wacha's best season saw a BB rate of 2.99/9IP. Last year was down to 2.24. This year, he is at 3.81, near his career high.

So if his velo isnt spiking and he isn't King more or BBing less, why is he so damn dominant?

Look at two stats here. Wacha's career HR rate is 1.12 per 9IP. From 19-21, it was at 2.0 average. This year, it is 0.69/9IP. Is he getting more ground balls? Yes, 5% more GB's, albeit right at his career AVG. FB% has stayed the same. LD% has dropped from 25-20%. He's avoiding hard contact

Second one is BABIP. Career BABIP is right at .300. This year, he's at .146. So you know what this means? If he continues on this run he is on and the sox drop from contention, it would behoove Bloom to trade him ASAP before the cat jumps out of the bag.

Shouldn’t the Yankees do the same thing with Clay Holmes and Willy Peralta?

[Old Red]

If nothing else, it is impressive how you call yourself out. And do so without being prompted…

I’m guilty as charged, and I admit it.

[moonslav59]

Although he's never let up on "Flintstone Schwaber".

...and all the ghost posters clamoring to "extend Flintstone Schwarber for life."

[Old Red]

...and all the ghost posters clamoring to "extend Flintstone Schwarber for life."

Another word from Mr I. Look it up from one of the game threads of the post season last year. It is there in black, and white.

[Old Red]

Although he's never let up on "Flintstone Schwaber".

Do you know where the Flintstone reference came from? A Schwaber groupie for a overrated player for a short time in Boston. He even made a routine play at 1B one time. You just take that the Flintstone Schwaber is meant to be a bad reference, because as one of the overwhelming traits on here is to over analyze something.

[dgalehouse]

Big picture here is he’s the Sox version of Shawn Chacon from 2006. The guy was a magician. K rate sucked. Walk rate wasn’t good. He just happened to have that magical season with the Yanks where every bounce went right. Wheels fell off the following season. When you’ve got a guy who’s literally lucky to be performing at that level, you should find a way to cash in on it, especially if you fall out of contention

We will have to add Wacha to your list of guys the Sox should unload.