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Thread: A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

  1. #2326
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    Don't forget Eovaldi and his $17M, for which he has contributed a WAR of 1.0, which includes 18 starts, an ERA of 4.15, etc.

    When you include Price, Sale, Eovaldi, and Paxton, that's over $70M invested in a combined WAR of Eovaldi's 1.0.
    They’ve also combined for 106 IP, and for 2 starts since the trading deadline. (Bearing in mind that at the deadline, Sale was still expected back and even Paxton hasn’t been ruled out for the year.)

  2. #2327
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    Don't forget Eovaldi and his $17M, for which he has contributed a WAR of 1.0, which includes 18 starts, an ERA of 4.15, etc.

    When you include Price, Sale, Eovaldi, and Paxton, that's over $70M invested in a combined WAR of Eovaldi's 1.0.
    That's nearly a third of the 2022 player tax line budget. Add $22M for a 0.7 bWAR from JD and $9M for a -0.1 bWAR for Barnes and we're looking at about $100M for 1.6 WAR. That's close to half the player salary budget!
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  3. #2328
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    That's nearly a third of the 2022 player tax line budget. Add $22M for a 0.7 bWAR from JD and $9M for a -0.1 bWAR for Barnes and we're looking at about $100M for 1.6 WAR. That's close to half the player salary budget!
    True, but Barnes was not an inherited problem.

    Bloom did create the Barnes/Bradley financial issues for himself…

  4. #2329
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    True, but Barnes was not an inherited problem.

    Bloom did create the Barnes/Bradley financial issues for himself…
    Yes, Barnes is not on DD. Bloom extended him, so subtract his $9M, and we still have about $90M of 1.7 WAR production from a few of DD's carry-overs..
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  5. #2330
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    True, but Barnes was not an inherited problem.

    Bloom did create the Barnes/Bradley financial issues for himself…
    There weren't too many of us on here complaining about the Barnes extension when he signed it.

    I still have faith he can provide future value.
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  6. #2331
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    There weren't too many of us on here complaining about the Barnes extension when he signed it.

    I still have faith he can provide future value.

    And there were many others who felt it would take more than what Liam Hendricks got (3 years $54mill) to extend Barnes...

  7. #2332
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    There weren't too many of us on here complaining about the Barnes extension when he signed it.

    I still have faith he can provide future value.
    I liked the extension, a lot, and not just based on his first half of 2021. The guy was solid for 3-5 years before 2021.

    He had a 30 IP rough patch- last 10 in 2021 and first 20 in '22. Almost every RP'er has had rough 30 IP stretches. He's done very well in his last 17 IP, but I'm not totally sold he's turned it around for good.

    He may still earn that contract total, when all is said and done.

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  8. #2333
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I liked the extension, a lot, and not just based on his first half of 2021. The guy was solid for 3-5 years before 2021.

    He had a 30 IP rough patch- last 10 in 2021 and first 20 in '22. Almost every RP'er has had rough 30 IP stretches. He's done very well in his last 17 IP, but I'm not totally sold he's turned it around for good.

    He may still earn that contract total, when all is said and done.

    From 18-21 (even including his late season skid), he was a guy who generally had a low xBA/xSLG and high K%.

    His curveball doesn't have quite the bite it used to have, but he's still getting movement on his FB. His velo is down a tick, but that could also just be from missing a lot of time due to injury. I'm looking to him to be more productive next season after a full offseason. I think he'll be a decent 7th/8th inning guy.

    Since coming back from the IL on 8/4:

    18.2 IP
    18 K
    6 BB
    16 H
    4 ER
    302 BABIP (about career norm)
    1.18 WHIP
    1.93 ERA
    2.48 FIP
    4.30 xFIP (since he gave up 0 HR)
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  9. #2334
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    From 18-21 (even including his late season skid), he was a guy who generally had a low xBA/xSLG and high K%.

    His curveball doesn't have quite the bite it used to have, but he's still getting movement on his FB. His velo is down a tick, but that could also just be from missing a lot of time due to injury. I'm looking to him to be more productive next season after a full offseason. I think he'll be a decent 7th/8th inning guy.

    Since coming back from the IL on 8/4:

    18.2 IP
    18 K
    6 BB
    16 H
    4 ER
    302 BABIP (about career norm)
    1.18 WHIP
    1.93 ERA
    2.48 FIP
    4.30 xFIP (since he gave up 0 HR)
    Since August 11th:
    16.1 IP
    15 H
    3 ER
    4 BB
    18Ks
    1.65 ERA
    2.02 FIP
    .558 OPS Against

    This sample size is getting closer to the 30 IP bad stretch he had.

    2017-2020
    3.83 ERA
    3.30 FIP
    1.29 WHIP
    13.2 K/9
    2.9 K/BB

    First 46 games 2021
    45 IP
    25 H
    12 ER
    11 BB 69K
    2.40 ERA
    2.35 FIP
    .497 OPS Against
    13.8 K/9
    6.3 K/BB

    Last 14 games of 2021
    9.2 IP
    16 H
    11 ER
    9 BB
    15 K
    10.24 ERA
    7.20 FIP
    1.095 OPS Against

    First 23 games of 2022
    19.1 IP
    18 H
    16 ER
    14 BB
    14 K
    7.45 ERA
    5.34 FIP
    .759 OPS A

    Total end of '21 + '22
    29 IP
    41 H
    27 ER
    23 BB
    29 K
    8.38 ERA

    Should Barnes really be judged so harshly over less than 30 IP of horrific pitching?


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  10. #2335
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    All I'm saying is that he's not a DFA candidate. I think there's meat left on the bone. He probably wasn't a viable closer candidate anyway and was really just a setup guy at best.
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  11. #2336
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Since August 11th:
    16.1 IP
    15 H
    3 ER
    4 BB
    18Ks
    1.65 ERA
    2.02 FIP
    .558 OPS Against

    This sample size is getting closer to the 30 IP bad stretch he had.

    2017-2020
    3.83 ERA
    3.30 FIP
    1.29 WHIP
    13.2 K/9
    2.9 K/BB

    First 46 games 2021
    45 IP
    25 H
    12 ER
    11 BB 69K
    2.40 ERA
    2.35 FIP
    .497 OPS Against
    13.8 K/9
    6.3 K/BB

    Last 14 games of 2021
    9.2 IP
    16 H
    11 ER
    9 BB
    15 K
    10.24 ERA
    7.20 FIP
    1.095 OPS Against

    First 23 games of 2022
    19.1 IP
    18 H
    16 ER
    14 BB
    14 K
    7.45 ERA
    5.34 FIP
    .759 OPS A

    Total end of '21 + '22
    29 IP
    41 H
    27 ER
    23 BB
    29 K
    8.38 ERA

    Should Barnes really be judged so harshly over less than 30 IP of horrific pitching?


    Right, or wrong he is, but 30 innings is a lot of innings for a so called closer. He would probably be gone if not for the contract.

  12. #2337
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    All I'm saying is that he's not a DFA candidate. I think there's meat left on the bone. He probably wasn't a viable closer candidate anyway and was really just a setup guy at best.
    I'm certainly not thinking he will close for us in 2023, and he should not be planned to be so, but I think he can be a good set-up man. Unless he pitches his way out of that role, it is his, at this point in time.
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  13. #2338
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    Right, or wrong he is, but 30 innings is a lot of innings for a so called closer. He would probably be gone if not for the contract.
    I'm not so sure. He has a long history of being a fairly reliable late inning guy a la Mike Timlin. I think it would be foolish to throw out a player everytime there was an injury or a downturn. There are enough commenters now saying "why can't Sox get guys like Daniel Bard" and he was wandering the wilderness for 10 years!
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  14. #2339
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Red View Post
    Right, or wrong he is, but 30 innings is a lot of innings for a so called closer. He would probably be gone if not for the contract.
    I doubt it. Many pitchers stick around for longer than that, and many never had as good a record as Barnes beforehand.

    Diekman (1.49 WHIP) pitched 38 inning for us, this year and was not DFA'd.

    Sawamura (1.42) pitched over 50 innings.

    Brasier (1.32 in 58 IP) has sucked for years and costs next to nothing.

    Roblesd (1.58) almost lasted 26 IP.

    In 2021, Andries shit the bed for 37 IP (1.77 WHIP.)

    I'm not sure why DHern (1.73 0ver keeps getting the call- over 85 IP!!!

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  15. #2340
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'm not sure why DHern (1.73 0ver keeps getting the call- over 85 IP!!!

    Because he's on the 40 man roster and cheap. I think the Sox move on from him this offseason.
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