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Thread: A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

  1. #316
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    And according to Statcast, he'd be better off playing in Cincinnati or Philadelphia.

    Judge is a big man. He hits the ball a long way. I'm not sure there's much of a Yankee Stadium 3 effect for him.
    Judge is finally doing what he should have been doing all along. I never understand when these behemoth hitters outwardly try to pull everything. Judge and Stanton can hit the ball out to any part of any park. Judge got pull happy the last few years and was still productive. Now, he's not pulling much of anything. Almost all his HRs are to CF and RCF. That is very dangerous for opposing pitchers.
    Hal sucks

  2. #317
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Judge has 8HR's on the road and 6 at home this year. So how many of those pop ups are we talking about?
    Looks like 6. Hey, I'm the one who said he's the best hitter in the league this year.

    But I also value batting average, which analytics dismiss as an overrated stat. To me, the percentage of hits in at bats when a batter swings matters -- because putting the ball in play forces the D to react, and driving it in the gaps or over them advances baserunners.

    So let's add Actual Extra Bases to Batting Averages for an Overall Hit Score: Judge 49 + .306 BA = 355; Devers 48 + .340 = 388.

  3. #318
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I don't think Xander is getting an 8 year deal. I think Devers will get an 8 year deal.
    Agreed. I don't think any GM offers Bogey 8+ years. He may not even get a 7 year offer.

    If he was a great defensive SS, he would get it.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  4. #319
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Looks like 6. Hey, I'm the one who said he's the best hitter in the league this year.

    But I also value batting average, which analytics dismiss as an overrated stat. To me, the percentage of hits in at bats when a batter swings matters -- because putting the ball in play forces the D to react, and driving it in the gaps or over them advances baserunners.

    So let's add Actual Extra Bases to Batting Averages for an Overall Hit Score: Judge 49 + .306 BA = 355; Devers 48 + .340 = 388.
    Devers has 13 XBHs to Judges 21, but since Judge walks more, he has 19 less ABs.

    Why not just use SLG%?

    .721 Ward
    .689 Trout
    .672 Judge
    .634 Harper
    .617 Chisholm
    .603 Cron
    .597 Arenado
    .588 Devers

    11. JD .564
    13. Stanton .538
    28. Bogey .482
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  5. #320
    Major Leaguer MADSTORK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Where did I even come close to saying I want to sign JD?

    Brush up on your reading comp skills.

    BTW, I'm surprised to see a Stork sighting after a win.

    Lol

    You have to admit it’s nice to see the training wheels off these starting pitchers? Let the starters pitch! There is no reason for pitch counts, how many times u face the lineup and all this analytical bullish!t.
    Let the men pitch

  6. #321
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Devers has 13 XBHs to Judges 21, but since Judge walks more, he has 19 less ABs.

    Why not just use SLG%?

    .721 Ward
    .689 Trout
    .672 Judge
    .634 Harper
    .617 Chisholm
    .603 Cron
    .597 Arenado
    .588 Devers

    11. JD .564
    13. Stanton .538
    28. Bogey .482
    Slugging is a good metric, and by all percentages Ward is far ahead of everyone. But he's also only had two-thirds of the at bats of Devers. That's why Rafey (and Judge) lead in Actual Extra Bases on hits. They're ahead of Trout and Harper, too.

  7. #322
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MADSTORK View Post
    Lol

    You have to admit it’s nice to see the training wheels off these starting pitchers? Let the starters pitch! There is no reason for pitch counts, how many times u face the lineup and all this analytical bullish!t.
    Let the men pitch
    I've been arguing that Hill and Wacha have better histories than Eovaldi and Pivetta the 3rd time through a line-up, and to let them go deeper, but now Wacha is on the IL.

    They did let Hill go 6 innings, finally!
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  8. #323
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Slugging is a good metric, and by all percentages Ward is far ahead of everyone. But he's also only had two-thirds of the at bats of Devers. That's why Rafey (and Judge) lead in Actual Extra Bases on hits. They're ahead of Trout and Harper, too.
    Trout has 22 XBHs. Judge 21, according to fangraphs.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  9. #324
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Looks like 6. Hey, I'm the one who said he's the best hitter in the league this year.

    But I also value batting average, which analytics dismiss as an overrated stat. To me, the percentage of hits in at bats when a batter swings matters -- because putting the ball in play forces the D to react, and driving it in the gaps or over them advances baserunners.

    So let's add Actual Extra Bases to Batting Averages for an Overall Hit Score: Judge 49 + .306 BA = 355; Devers 48 + .340 = 388.

    1. That’s not what batting average measures. It measures the percentage of time a batter gets a hit in a plate appearance in which he does not walk, get hit by a pitch, voluntarily give himself up by bunting to move a runner over, or hit a reasonably deep fly ball with a runner on third and less than two out.

    2. 49 + .306 does not equal .355. It equals 49.306.

    3. If you want XBH to be incorporated with BA, that’s exactly what SLG does…

  10. #325
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    1. That’s not what batting average measures. It measures the percentage of time a batter gets a hit in a plate appearance in which he does not walk, get hit by a pitch, voluntarily give himself up by bunting to move a runner over, or hit a reasonably deep fly ball with a runner on third and less than two out.

    2. 49 + .306 does not equal .355. It equals 49.306.

    3. If you want XBH to be incorporated with BA, that’s exactly what SLG does…


    1): MLB.com: "batting average is determined by dividing a player's hits by his total at-bats"

    2): I knew I'd get corrected on a statistic that I made up for my own evaluations...

    3)... slugging percentage = total bases divided by at bats... but like I said, I subtracted total hits from total bases, to find actual extra bases touched beyond first base (which isn't actually extra).

  11. #326
    Here are legit questions I'm not sure of for stat-minded posters:

    if a batter has an OBP of .500, does that mean he reaches base via hit, walk or hbp in half his plate appearances?

    if he has a slugging percentage of .500, does that mean he averages touching half a base in every at bat?

    if you add OBP and SLG and get an OPS over 1, does that mean he averages at least a base every single time up?

    how can they combine one stat that considers PA with another that only uses ABs?

  12. #327
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    1): MLB.com: "batting average is determined by dividing a player's hits by his total at-bats"

    2): I knew I'd get corrected on a statistic that I made up for my own evaluations...

    3)... slugging percentage = total bases divided by at bats... but like I said, I subtracted total hits from total bases, to find actual extra bases touched beyond first base (which isn't actually extra).

    1. You talked about swinging the bat in your definition of BA. A batter does not need to swing to be credited with an at bat.

    3. ISO (Isolated Power) is the stat you’re looking for. It’s SLG minus BA, and removes the dependency on singles from a hitters profile. Fangraphs has it on their tables. B-R (I believe) does not…

  13. #328
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Here are legit questions I'm not sure of for stat-minded posters:

    if a batter has an OBP of .500, does that mean he reaches base via hit, walk or hbp in half his plate appearances?

    if he has a slugging percentage of .500, does that mean he averages touching half a base in every at bat?

    if you add OBP and SLG and get an OPS over 1, does that mean he averages at least a base every single time up?

    how can they combine one stat that considers PA with another that only uses ABs?
    It certainly has flaws, but to me it's not the AB and PA thing. It counts singles twice and BBs once, and they are hardly worth double.

    OBP is still a very important stat as related to scoring runs, despite the new trend that seemingly steers away from it.
    SLG is very important, too.

    Adding the two makes sense, to me, despite it's flaws. It's easy and counts two major run scoring factors.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  14. #329
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    1. You talked about swinging the bat in your definition of BA. A batter does not need to swing to be credited with an at bat.

    3. ISO (Isolated Power) is the stat you’re looking for. It’s SLG minus BA, and removes the dependency on singles from a hitters profile. Fangraphs has it on their tables. B-R (I believe) does not…
    Thanks. Here's what I found on MLB (I was kinda paraphrasing it):

    Definition
    ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits -- and the type of extra-base hit -- into account.

    For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200. A player who goes 2-for-5 with a single and a double has a higher batting average than the first player, but the same ISO of .200.

    The formula
    (1x2B + 2x3B + 3xHR)
    / At-bats OR Slugging percentage - Batting average

    Why it's useful
    By focusing strictly on extra-base hits, ISO can help evaluate the raw power a player has.

  15. #330
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Thanks. Here's what I found on MLB (I was kinda paraphrasing it):

    Definition
    ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits -- and the type of extra-base hit -- into account.

    For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200. A player who goes 2-for-5 with a single and a double has a higher batting average than the first player, but the same ISO of .200.

    The formula
    (1x2B + 2x3B + 3xHR)
    / At-bats OR Slugging percentage - Batting average

    Why it's useful
    By focusing strictly on extra-base hits, ISO can help evaluate the raw power a player has.
    This is very useful, but like all stats, it is flawed, too.

    It does not take into account a batter's baserunning skills, pitchers faced or park dimensions and opposing defense levels.

    I like ISO, though, but I rarely quote the numbers. I don't think many care about the stat.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

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