A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

I always hate starting next year's thread, because it means this year's hopes are over. I guess I can say I still have a sliver of hope for the 2022 season, but I'd be lying. This season started like a cluster, turned real nice for a bit, and then turned sour quickly. I'm not going to blame injuries, since teams like the Yanks have had tons of injuries during years we have beaten them. I'm going to look at where we go from here, and specifically what we can maybe expect in 2023.

First, we need to look at trading anybody and everybody not part of our long term plans for the best we can get. I'll start with the easy part- one year controlled players:

Bogey: He has a no trade clause, but he'd probably waive it to get a chance for a ring, especially if he feels like he won't be coming back to Boston, next year. I'm not sure just how much we'd get for him, but he's the one with the most value. (Thanks for many good memories.)

JD Martinez: I could see us trying to bring him back on a shorter term, lower cost contract, but then I think these DH only guys getting towards an age where serious decline normally is already in progress, why not look for someone with a more promising future. Get what we can, but get something. (Thanks for earning your keep, JD.)

Eovaldi: Despite his recent troubles, he may still have or build some value in his next 1-2 starts. Get what we can. I doubt we re-sign him, either. (Thanks for stepping up in 2018. A true hero.)

Vaz: Might get a decent return. I doubt we try hard to bring him back, anyway. (We tried to trade for Stalling, last winter.)

Kike: His injury may make his trade value near zero, but see what we can get. (Thanks for 2021, Kike!)

Wacha: He won't be back before the deadline, so see what we can get. (Too bad you got hurt.)

R Hill: He won't be back before the deadline, so see what we can get. (Just didn't work out.)

Strahm: Get what we can. (Looked good for 3 months.)

Plawecki: Sorry, but he won't be missed.

Now, the Options:

JBJ: Just say NO! Eat the $8M buyout that counted on this year's tax bill, and don't even think about him earning the $4M more he'd get for 2023, if we give him the option.

Paxton: $13M team option or $4M player option. I'd think we'd take this one, but if we decide the priority is 2024 and beyond, maybe not.

Sawamura: $3M option or $600K buyout. I'd say no, and move on. I think Cora agrees. Not sure about Bloom.

Assuming no 1 year guys come back, and only Paxton's option is given, here is the starting framework for 2023:

Luxury Tax Dollars ($Millions) 31 Players on 40 Man, now

SP
25.6 Sale
8.5 Pivetta (Arb 2 of 3)
.72 Winckowski (pre Arb)
.72 Crawford (pre Arb)
.72 Mata (pre Arb)
.72 Bello (pre Arb)
minor Seabold (pre Arb)
minor Groome (pre Arb)

RP
9.4 Barnes
4.7 Whitlock
3.5 Diekman (if we can't trade him, now of this winter)
1.5 Brasier (Arb 3 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23)
1.1 Taylor (Arb 2 of 4)
1.1 Davis (Arb 1 of 3- no options remaining)
.80 DHern (Arb 1 of 3)
.73 Houck (pre Arb)
.73 Schreiber (pre Arb)
minor Danish (pre Arb)
minor P Valdez (pre Arb)
minor K Ort (pre Arb)

C
.72 Wong (pre Arb)
.72 R Hernandez (pre Arb)

1B
~1.0 Cordero (Arb 2 of 3)
.73 Dalbec (pre Arb)

2B
23.3 Story
1.3 Arroyo (Arb 2 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23)

3B
~25 Devers (Arb 3 of 3)

SS
.72 Downs (pre Arb)

LF
~6.0M Verdugo (Arb 2 of 3)

CF
.72 Duran (pre Arb)

RF
~1.5 Refsnyder (Arb 2 of 3)


That's about $122M for 31 players. Add a few $Million for the other 9M combined and $16M for player benefits, and we'll be around $140M before spending a dime on additions.

To get to the threshold, we could spend $92M. To get to $12M over, like we are, now, we might spend about $104M. I'd say it's safe to say we might spend $90-100M over the winter, assuming we aren't looking at 2024 as the turn-around season.

We have some Rule 5 Players that almost certainly be added to the 40:
Casas
Rafaela
German
Walter
Murphy
W Gonzalez
Paulino

Possibles:
Bonaci
Cottam
Feltman
Jimenez
Koss, Northcut, Granberg, TWard, Santos, Song

Adding Free Agents (assuming 7 Rule 5 additions), we have 2 open slots. Any more would mean trading or DFA'ing:
Diekman, Ort, Valdez, Arroyo, DHern, Brasier and maybe Groome.

Let's assume 6 additions. That leaves this for the 40:

SP: _____, Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Winckowski
Crawford, Bello, Mata, Seabold, Groome, Walter, Murphy, Gonzalez

RP: Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber, _____, Taylor, Davis, Brasier
German, Danish, DHern

C: _____, Wong
R Hernandez

1B: _____, Dalbec/Cordero
Casas, Cordero/Dalbec

2B: Story
Paulino

3B: Devers

SS: ______, Downs

LF: Verdugo, Duran

CF: ______
Rafaela

RF: Refsnyder

[jacksonianmarch]

Personally I was hoping the wheels would fall off in a couple weeks, but here we are.

Sox we’re keeping their heads above the water waiting for the starters to return and when they return, they’re bums. Eovaldi prior to his injury would net a huge return! Eovaldi the guy chucking meatballs up there isn’t worth anything. JD and his balky back and no power limits his return. Wacha being out makes it hard to deal him.

The two guys who likely bring back the most beyond the white whale of Devers are Vaz and Bogey. Strahm might return a prospect down the line too. But the rest look dead in terms of value.

In terms of Bogey, his best fits right now look like MIL, STL and SD. Vaz fits most places.

Then there’s the obvious with Devers. He will return an enormous amount of talent when traded

[Nick]

Mediocre fielding shortstop with no power deserves no more than $20M per year. We paid a guy $23M with .220 BA and 200 strikeouts. He'd be an upgrade over Xander defensively at least.

This team lacks power. Forget all the doubles off the wall. We need guys that can hit out.

Build a team around Devers.

Let the rebuild begin.

[notin]

Personally I was hoping the wheels would fall off in a couple weeks, but here we are.

Sox we’re keeping their heads above the water waiting for the starters to return and when they return, they’re bums. Eovaldi prior to his injury would net a huge return! Eovaldi the guy chucking meatballs up there isn’t worth anything. JD and his balky back and no power limits his return. Wacha being out makes it hard to deal him.

The two guys who likely bring back the most beyond the white whale of Devers are Vaz and Bogey. Strahm might return a prospect down the line too. But the rest look dead in terms of value.

In terms of Bogey, his best fits right now look like MIL, STL and SD. Vaz fits most places.

Then there’s the obvious with Devers. He will return an enormous amount of talent when traded

Bogaerts to SD?

San Diego has a great shortstop in Tatis. They have another great shortstop at third base in Machado. And another shortstop at second in Cronenworth. Their top prospect is a shortstop (Abrams) that they’ve tried in CF. And their LF (Profar) was another top prospect SS but he is injured.

San Diego doesn’t need a shortstop. They need hitters who don’t play shortstop…

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

The two guys who likely bring back the most beyond the white whale of Devers are Vaz and Bogey. Strahm might return a prospect down the line too. But the rest look dead in terms of value.

I don't think you need to worry much about Bloom accumulating a haul of legitimate prospects for two months of Bogaerts or Vazquez. But you're right, the rest of the injured trade bait won't bring back any impact players.

At this point, Bloom would just do the fanbase a favor by purging the roster of anyone who may just go through the motions the rest of the season.

[jad]

Yeah, get rid of your most productive players in hopes of netting a prospect who might turn into the next Dalbec or Chavez.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

2023 starting lineup: 1B Casas, 2B Story, 3B Devers.

Whoever is running things needs to find a new catcher and new shortstop who are glove-first professionals; guys like that shouldn't be too expensive, but should be priorities in lending stability to any rebuild.

Where the Sox need to spend big in bucks or prospects is on the outfield; they need at least one, and probably two, legitimate big league borderline stars who can hit and hit with power. They have none close to being ready in the minors. The line-up has already lost the pop once provided by JD and Bogey, and their production needs to be replaced, not to mention the missing longball void still open since Schwarber and Renfroe left.

The most costly addition will come on the mound, where Boston needs an ace. People can argue a non-contender should spread out its investments and build depth, but it all begins on the hill in the middle of the diamond. No one can turn around a staff or a team faster than a #1 who consistently provides quality starts every five days for six months.

[moonslav59]

Personally I was hoping the wheels would fall off in a couple weeks, but here we are.

Sox we’re keeping their heads above the water waiting for the starters to return and when they return, they’re bums. Eovaldi prior to his injury would net a huge return! Eovaldi the guy chucking meatballs up there isn’t worth anything. JD and his balky back and no power limits his return. Wacha being out makes it hard to deal him.

The two guys who likely bring back the most beyond the white whale of Devers are Vaz and Bogey. Strahm might return a prospect down the line too. But the rest look dead in terms of value.

In terms of Bogey, his best fits right now look like MIL, STL and SD. Vaz fits most places.

Then there’s the obvious with Devers. He will return an enormous amount of talent when traded

We can throw cash with Nate and JD and get decent prospects. Some prospects we get will not work out, but stockpile them anyway.

We got Pivetta and Seabold for Workman and Hembree, so good thing can happen, just do t expect that return on every deal.

[moonslav59]

Here are some trades I threw together without a lot of thought, but that give the general idea of what might be possible:

Every BTV trade listed here, gives the advantage to the "other team."

Bogey, Kike & Duran
to PHI for
Abel- their top pitching prospect
O'Hoppe- one of the best catching prospects in the minors
Crouse- RHP'ing prospect
Kingery- a salary dump to more than offset Bogey's contract (2 more yrs)
Segura- another salary dump to sweeten the return. He can play 2B/SS, next year as a bridge to ____?

Eovaldi, JD, Vaz, Strahm & $2M
to NYM for
DSmith 1B (2 years remaining)
Ziegler RHP (decent pitching prospect but nothing special)

Wacha, Hill, Sawamura & Diekman
to STL for
Matz (salary dump w 3 years left)
Yepez 1B/DH (promising ML player w 5 yrs left)
Love RHP prospect with minimal value

Is this a bout the best we can expect?

Does this significantly help us in the extended future while giving us some hope to be decent in 2023, assuming we add a bunch of salary?

[moonslav59]

As expected, we are seeing a lot of posters coming out of the woodwork, today (and last night.)

[moonslav59]

As bad as things look, right now, there is some promising foundational pieces still remaining on this team and on the farm. (Some of the not so promising are also listed. Any not listed are by my choice.)

Here's a look at some... (on the farm to start 2023)

Rotation:
Sale
Paxton
Pivetta
Bello
Winckowski
(Mata, Seabold, Murphy, Walter, Groome)

Pen
Houck
Whitlock
Schreiber
Crawford
Taylor
German
Davis
(Feltman, Santos

Catcher
Wong
RHern
(Cottam, Hickey)

1B

(Casas, Jordan, Kavadas)

2B
Downs (borderline)
(Yorke, Paulino)

SS
Story (2B?)
(Mayer, Lugo, Bonaci)

3B
Devers
(Binelas)

LF
Duran/Verdugo (just 1)

CF
(Rafaela, Bleis)

RF
Refsnyder
(Jimenez)

[oldtimer]

As bad as things look, right now, there is some promising foundational pieces still remaining on this team and on the farm. (Some of the not so promising are also listed. Any not listed are by my choice.)

Here's a look at some... (on the farm to start 2023)

Rotation:
Sale
Paxton
Pivetta
Bello
Winckowski
(Mata, Seabold, Murphy, Walter, Groome)

Pen
Houck
Whitlock
Schreiber
Crawford
Taylor
German
Davis
(Feltman, Santos

Catcher
Wong
RHern
(Cottam, Hickey)

1B

(Casas, Jordan, Kavadas)

2B
Downs (borderline)
(Yorke, Paulino)

SS
Story (2B?)
(Mayer, Lugo, Bonaci)

3B
Devers
(Binelas)

LF
Duran/Verdugo (just 1)

CF
(Rafaela, Bleis)

RF
Refsnyder
(Jimenez)

You are coming across as someone who suffers from ADHD. Fifty seven thousand plus posts and numerous detailed thoughts about 2023. My experience tells me the front office will do something quite different, and since we will see the first major manifestation by Aug 2nd, I am willing to wait. Many moves they have made in the past were unsettling if not outright mistakes. I expect more of the same. I don't see a way to recover fully for the 2023 season.

[JDavis76]

I love that moonslop has given up and started this thread already!

[cp176]

You are coming across as someone who suffers from ADHD. Fifty seven thousand plus posts and numerous detailed thoughts about 2023. My experience tells me the front office will do something quite different, and since we will see the first major manifestation by Aug 2nd, I am willing to wait. Many moves they have made in the past were unsettling if not outright mistakes. I expect more of the same. I don't see a way to recover fully for the 2023 season.

I would add that although a youth movement can be exciting. If your youth movement consists of young people who really haven't shown that they do in fact belong at the major league level, you likely will not be successful no matter how much you want to sell it.

[notin]

I would add that although a youth movement can be exciting. If your youth movement consists of young people who really haven't shown that they do in fact belong at the major league level, you likely will not be successful no matter how much you want to sell it.

Despite several seasons where the Sox were mid-season sellers, they’ve never had a youth movement or total rebuild…