A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

I think they have to start making decisions with Whitlock/Houck on whether or not they're pen guys or starters. Sox know it too, plus the pen needs so much help I think you kind of have to put guys in there you figure are going to relievers long term anyways.

Sale/Pivetta/Bello/Whitlock/FA/FA. I think they need to bring in two pitchers. One guy who is known commodity, an ace would be nice but at least a solid #2#3 type, and then maybe one guy who fits the mold of Wacha this passed year. I'd feel a lot better about that rotation going into ST.

I agree. I'm not too sure which direction they are going to go with on Paxton, but just increases the uncertainty surrounding the rotation IMO. The Sox need a new version of Porcello, someone who can take the ball every 5th day and be counted on.

[mvp 78]

My biggest concern with Pablo Lopez is he seems to eat up crappy teams and pad his stats. I think he may end up only being more of a #3 guy in the AL east. I'm not sure I'd want to give up a guy like Mayer for him, which would probably be the cost. The guy I'd go after is Cabrera, who is younger, has much better stuff, and might actually be cheaper.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...ear=Career&t=p

Lopez tOP+ career

WP < .500 79
WP > .500 112

Luzardo (Mr Reverse Split!)

< .500 104
> .500 94

[mvp 78]

They had internal options for a 4th OF, including Refsnyder and Cordero…

Well, every team has internal options for a 4th OF if you are going to go down to AAA.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox were going to need a 4th OF to start the season anyways, but Bloom exasperated the problem with the trade for JBJ that made the OF go from a need to a higher need, and that also cost more.

You don't have to sell me on the mistake trade for JBJ. I was the wagon driver.

As much as you and I did not have faith in Duran, he was the 4th OF'er- not RH'd but nevertheless a plan.

Another point, all year I felt like Cora had a great reluctance to play Dugo in RF. I chalked that up as not thinking he could do it well enough to put him back there. Then, later they did.

I'd have rather had Cordero in LF than 1B, and Dugo in RF rather than Duran anywhere. Not that this was a credible plan, either, but it seems better than what they tried.

[moonslav59]

They could start it in 23 with a lower dollar amount.

Indeed, and if the idea is to reset in 2024, starting in 2023 might save $1-2M off the lux tax line after 2023.

[moonslav59]

Pablo Lopez is going to cost a lot more than Rafaella plus a bunch of middling prospects. Young cost-controlled pitching usually starts with a couple of top prospects, TOP prospects. Teams are going to want one of Casas/Mayer/Bello just to come to the table for a guy.

I didn't mean Rafaela and scrubs. I meant something like Rafaela, Yorke, Wikelman and Jordan, which BTV accepts. They'd likely want Rafaela, Bleis & Wikelman

I like Cabrera, too, but he's no ace.

BTV values
140 Alcantara 5 yrs
39 Lopez 2 yrs
37 Rogers 4 yrs
27 Luzardo 3 yrs
20 Garrett 5 yrs
7 Cabrera 5 yrs

Sox Values
55 Mayer
39 Casas
34 Whitlock
33 Bello
19 Houck
15 Rafaela
14 Bleis
12 Yorke
9 Romero
7 Wikelman & Coffey
6 Walter, Lugo & Duran
5 Jordan

[notin]

My biggest concern with Pablo Lopez is he seems to eat up crappy teams and pad his stats. I think he may end up only being more of a #3 guy in the AL east. I'm not sure I'd want to give up a guy like Mayer for him, which would probably be the cost. The guy I'd go after is Cabrera, who is younger, has much better stuff, and might actually be cheaper.

I don’t follow this logic at all.

Lopez is a lesser pitcher than Cabrera, with a greater salary and fewer tears of control, but will be costlier?

I have to think the Marlins know their own pitchers better than that…

[moonslav59]

I don’t follow this logic at all.

Lopez is a lesser pitcher than Cabrera, with a greater salary and fewer tears of control, but will be costlier?

I have to think the Marlins know their own pitchers better than that…

Apparently Mayer for Lopez & Cabrera would be a Sox overpay.

Mayer for Lopez, Cabrera and Berti is a go.

[moonslav59]

Apparently Mayer for Lopez & Cabrera would be a Sox overpay.

Mayer for Lopez, Cabrera and Berti is a go.

If we extend Bogey, this trade would really help us- short and long term.

2 rotation slots filled
RF or 4th OF'er filled

Plenty of budget space left over to address RF, the pen and maybe even catcher and a Devers extension.

[notin]

Well, every team has internal options for a 4th OF if you are going to go down to AAA.

Devlin Granberg! Come on down!!

[notin]

If we extend Bogey, this trade would really help us- short and long term.

2 rotation slots filled
RF or 4th OF'er filled

Plenty of budget space left over to address RF, the pen and maybe even catcher and a Devers extension.

Zero chance Miami trades 3 MLB players for one prospect in A ball…

[moonslav59]

Zero chance Miami trades 3 MLB players for one prospect in A ball…

We could throw in...

... wait for it...

Duran!

[moonslav59]

Zero chance Miami trades 3 MLB players for one prospect in A ball…

How about some prospects above A?

Casas, Rafaela, Wikelman & Duran
for
Lopez, Cabrera, Berti & Cooper

[moonslav59]

It's interesting to see the updated values given by BTV on the players Bloom has acquired via trade, waivers, minor league FA and Rule 5:

34.4 Whitlock (Rule 5)
24.2 Schreiber (Waivers)
6.5 McGuire (Diekman -4.5 now)
3.3 Winckowski, 0.5 Gambrell, 0.2 F Valdez, 0.1 L de la Rosa, 0.0 Cordero (Beni n/a)
3.1 Hosmer, 1.8 Rosier, 1.2 Ferguson (Groome 3.5)
2.9 Seabold & 0.9 Pivetta (Workman n/a & Hembree n/a)
2.6 Verdugo, 1.9 Wong & 1.1 Downs (Betts n/a)
2.5 R Hernandez (Mazza n/a & Springs 17.5)
2.1 Abreu & 1.2 E Valdez(Vazquez n/a)
1.6 Hamilton & 1.2 Binelas (Renfroe -0.2)
1.4 German (w Ottavino for PTBNL- n/a)
1.1 Z Kelly (minor league FA)
0.2 Potts (Moreland n/a)
0.1 Ort (minor league Rule 5)
0.0 Danish (minor league FA)
-0.6 Arroyo (Waivers)

[mvp 78]

Devlin Granberg! Come on down!!

He's more athletic than he looks!