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Thread: A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

  1. #1186
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    Could not agree more. I like both of them a ton, and they have been good for the franchise and us fans.

    But I just looked at MLB pitching, seasons to date. These are the teams with the best ERA's--

    1. Dodgers, running away with the NL with 92 wins.
    2. Astros, 87 wins, most in AL.
    3. Rays, 75 wins, but could catch the Yankees despite so-so hitting.
    4. Yankees, 81 wins, AL East lead.
    5. Braves, 84 wins, right behind the Mets for NL East.
    6. Mariners, 76 wins.
    7. Mets, 85 wins, NL East lead
    8. Guardians, 69-64, AL Central lead.
    9. Cardinals, 79-56, NL Central lead.
    10. Angels, 59-76.
    11. Orioles, 71-64, their best season in a long time.
    12. Jays, 75-59, their hitting is better
    13. Brewers, 71-63, 2 games out of wild card.
    14. Padres, 74-62, in the wild card for now.
    25. Red Sox, 67-69 thanks to 8th in MLB in scoring and 9th in team OPS--and good managing
    We could wait on Devers, and all he costs for 2023 is his arb number.

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  2. #1187
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    Do not disagree about the dangers of a long term contract--nor, I suspect, do Bloom and Henry.

    They did, however, just give Story 6 years, and might offer Bogey, whose the same age, six years, which would run to age 36, by which he might have gone back to 3b even though others have stayed at SS at that age. Devers, 4 years younger, probably wants 12 years, but maybe the Sox can get him for 10, depending on total amount.

    You are right about the pitching, of course.

    But, if the Sox have learned nothing else recently, it's the absolute folly of paying "market value"--which means lots of money for lots of years--for an ace. See Price, Sale, Cole, et al. Compared to them, re-signing Bogey and Devers looks like a freaking bargain.

    I exaggerate of course. Thus I go back to moonslav's stream of charts that suggest how Bloom can spend the freed-up payroll expected in 2023. None of them are simple and none assume big bucks for long years for anyone. In other words, no easy fixes.
    We might be able to get Devers on 8-10 years, if we give him an opt out after 2-3 years.
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  3. #1188
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    We could wait on Devers, and all he costs for 2023 is his arb number.

    I hope you realize my own druthers are to find a way to keep Bogey and Devers and to fix the pitching.

    And the pitching is complicated by the fact that Sale, Wacha, Pivetta, and Bello just might be a good start on a rotation next year. If that comes to fruition--and you have mentioned that possibility-- the Sox should be looking for relievers.

  4. #1189
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    We might be able to get Devers on 8-10 years, if we give him an opt out after 2-3 years.
    Agree.

  5. #1190
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    We could wait on Devers, and all he costs for 2023 is his arb number.

    I forgot that. Indeed, Bloom's unwillingness to dump Devers or Bogey on 1 August suggests he and JH haven't given up on either one.

  6. #1191
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    I forgot that. Indeed, Bloom's unwillingness to dump Devers or Bogey on 1 August suggests he and JH haven't given up on either one.
    Well, Bogey had a no-trade clause, so that might have kept Bloom from doing what he preferred to do... or not.

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  7. #1192
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    I hope you realize my own druthers are to find a way to keep Bogey and Devers and to fix the pitching.

    And the pitching is complicated by the fact that Sale, Wacha, Pivetta, and Bello just might be a good start on a rotation next year. If that comes to fruition--and you have mentioned that possibility-- the Sox should be looking for relievers.
    I'd like to keep both, too, but unless I'm convince JH will open and keep open his wallet for the next 3-5 years, I don't see how it will work. If a reset is planned in the next 2-3 years, and remember, the penalties for year 3 are enormous, how can we field a competitive teams, unless the farm jolts us to prominence.

    Bogey + Devers will be $55M+ on the tax line. Add Sale and we're at $80M, or more than 1/3 the player budget on just 3 players- one who may not even be playing.

    Just taking 2023 and forgetting about future resets, how can it be done?

    Bringing back Bogey and Devers fills no holes. At best, we stay the same, and likely will get worse beyond 2023 at SS/3B.

    We'd have $25-30M to spend on SP, SP, SP, Closer, RP, RF, DH without even touching 1B or C, which are also question marks for 2023.

    It's impossible, unless and until JH changes his tune.
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  8. #1193
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Well, Bogey had a no-trade clause, so that might have kept Bloom from doing what he preferred to do... or not.

    They gave Bogey advance notice they weren't going to trade him.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  9. #1194
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    They gave Bogey advance notice they weren't going to trade him.
    Yes. I think they realized it would be a PR nightmare and a huge disruption to the team to ask him if he would waive the No Trade Clause.

    They might also be thinking they will try hard to extend him. (I just hope not at Devers' expense.)
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  10. #1195
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Yes. I think they realized it would be a PR nightmare and a huge disruption to the team to ask him if he would waive the No Trade Clause.

    They might also be thinking they will try hard to extend him. (I just hope not at Devers' expense.)
    4-6 win shortstops are hard to find - Bogaerts case is fairly strong in that regard ... particularly if they have some decent intel on the actual likelihood of bagging a Trea Turner.

  11. #1196
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sk7326 View Post
    4-6 win shortstops are hard to find - Bogaerts case is fairly strong in that regard ... particularly if they have some decent intel on the actual likelihood of bagging a Trea Turner.
    One problem is, we could bring Bogey back, even on a hometown discount and still see a decline at SS over the term of the deal, and I mean from year one. I don’t expect it, in fact I think he’ll do better next year, but who know?

    Who knows how Turner, Correa or Swanson will do either?

    Hell, I wanted Baez, last year! yikes!!!
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  12. #1197
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    We might be able to get Devers on 8-10 years, if we give him an opt out after 2-3 years.
    And those will be 2-3 of his best years. I’m all for signing Devers long term, but wouldn’t be completely dissatisfied with only 3 more years of him….better than 1

  13. #1198
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    And those will be 2-3 of his best years. I’m all for signing Devers long term, but wouldn’t be completely dissatisfied with only 3 more years of him….better than 1
    Do what it takes. Front end load it, even if that encourages an opt out. Just get me…


    Devers forevers!
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  14. #1199
    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    And those will be 2-3 of his best years. I’m all for signing Devers long term, but wouldn’t be completely dissatisfied with only 3 more years of him….better than 1
    Whether or not we are satisfied or not giving him 3 years is probably less important than whether he decides he would like to get market value for his services, which obviously will require far more than that.
    "Fans have become more entitled than anything. So they're starting to question our motives for the game, or how we approach the game. The ones that do question -- like who are you? Just shut up and watch the game tonight." --Kevin Durant on players' lack of effort in regular season games.

  15. #1200
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jad View Post
    Whether or not we are satisfied or not giving him 3 years is probably less important than whether he decides he would like to get market value for his services, which obviously will require far more than that.
    3 year opt out not 3 year deal.

    Maybe $250M/10 but $35M the first 3, then $22M x 7. He will likely opt out but this protects him from injury or early decline.
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