A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[redsoxrules]

MLBTR

Bloom speaks...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/...additions.html

Globe reports: Tommy Kahle is another pen target. Reports are that the Sox offered Abreu low to mid 40's. (He signed for $59.5/3) It appears we were not close. (Not a good sign.)

Bloom says we may add 2+ pen arms.

Team wants to add 7-9 players, including 3-4 position players.

One SP'er who "can bring upside, leadership and consistency to the rotation, as well as innings."

Bloom pushed back on the notion of "no competitive offer" made to Bogey, saying " “have certainly made offers to him, we’ve been engaged, and we’ll stay engaged.” Bogey is still "a chief priority."

Bloom also noted Story or Kike could play SS, if Bogey departs.

Nate and Wacha are "both still possibilities."

Team wants to add 7-9 players? You can kiss Bogey goodbye then. Those 7-9 players aren't going to be cheap. Khale is a gamble as he's comming off injuries. It could pay off but could also be a bust. It seems Bloom is content to keep going for low cost in hopes to get a high reward.

[mvp 78]

I'm thinking...

Taillon
Nate
Quintana
Kluber
(Heaney seems to be close to signing with the Jays, I think.)

Is he still looking for the next Martin Perez- the 2022 version?

"As well as innings" precludes Heaney IMO.

[mvp 78]

Team wants to add 7-9 players? You can kiss Bogey goodbye then. Those 7-9 players aren't going to be cheap. Khale is a gamble as he's comming off injuries. It could pay off but could also be a bust. It seems Bloom is content to keep going for low cost in hopes to get a high reward.

The only way they bring Xander back is if it's 28 to Xander, a SP for 15 or less and the rest are el cheapos.

[moonslav59]

Dare we attempt to translate Bloomspeak... "leadership" can only mean old, as in veteran experience... "consistency" better mean durability, because someone who's hurt every other year or month is inconsistent...

... but doesn't "upside" mean having promise and potential? Like, someone who can improve... which means maybe not so good yet... or more likely, not so expensive yet -- though not necessarily with a current address in a bin, metal receptacle, on a plantation or flea market.

To me, "upside" means not a proven, solid pitcher.

[notin]

To me, "upside" means not a proven, solid pitcher.

Almost as if this pitcher appeared on our shores from a far off, mystical land…

[moonslav59]

That's how the FA market works. We knew that the market was limited and the Sox had a lot of holes to fill. If they are going to stick with value plays (like waiting out the Story market), they will mostly be outbid during the offseason. DD isn't running the show anymore. It's not surprising. Should they have spent 22% of their offseason budget on a 1b/DH? That wouldn't make sense to me.

By what metric is Estevez ranked better than Martin?

He has half the career fWAR in MORE innings. Nearly 3x the bb rate. Higher ERA and xFIP. Worse GB%. Worse LOB%

MLBTR:
32. Estevez est. $21M/7 (signed for $13.5M/2)
46. Chris Martin est. $14M/2 (signed for $17.5/2)

I thought I saw another site with Estevez ranked slightly higher than Martin in value, but I can't find it.

They are both pretty close. Martin might be better, but his age is scary. I wouldn't have minded seeing us sign both, but there are plenty of good RP'ers left.

[notin]

How do you envision the latter? Franchy is an Oriole, so at least that boosts Boston closer to Baltimore in overall team defense. Maybe Kike stays healthy and in center... though anyone is better than Duran.

Yesterday, Bloom finally mentioned Story at short -- so who will he get to replace Trevor's Gold Glove at second? It's also going to be difficult to find any outfielder better than Bradley. Are the Sox willing to pay for a new catcher who is an actual better receiver than McGuire?

One underrated area is a full season with Casas at first, which will help tighten up the entire infield. In his debut month it was clear Casas is a legitimate first baseman -- and not someone trying to learn the position in the big leagues. To me, he already looks as polished as any Sox sacker since Youk.

But what Bloom really meant when he said he wants pitchers with upside and leadership is that they can throw accurately to every base, including home base. I heard scouts are holding PFP auditions right now in always sunny San Diego...

I’ve been suggesting nothing but defensive improvements and calling them out as such.

Gallo in RF is a massive improvement over the Sox post-Bradley (also pre-Bradley/post-Betts).

Andrus if you are not going thing big at SS is the defensive way to go.

Ok granted thoughts of Wilson Contreras behind the plate are probably a step down from Reese McGuire…

[moonslav59]

Team wants to add 7-9 players? You can kiss Bogey goodbye then. Those 7-9 players aren't going to be cheap. Khale is a gamble as he's comming off injuries. It could pay off but could also be a bust. It seems Bloom is content to keep going for low cost in hopes to get a high reward.

I agree. the 8-9 player statement was the most disheartening words I've heard, this winter.

I'm pretty happy with 33-34 players on our 40. Sure, another 2-4 could be upgraded, but I do not feel like building up the foundation (quantity) should be a higher priority than building up the top 18-20 players on the 26.

I'd rather spend $80M on 4 players (maybe 5 or 6) than 8-9. Let the kids fill the gaps. We have enough of them to think enough can stick and help.

C: Wong (RHern)
1B: Casas
2B/DH: E Valdez
IF: Downs (Koss/Hamilton)
OF: Duran & Crook (Rafaela late 2023- maybe?)
SP: (convert to pen?): Mata, Walter, Murphy, TWard, Santos
Middle: Crawford & Wink
Short: Kelly, German, Wallace, Politi, Ort, DHern, Fernandez

That's at least 12-13 players who could show plus value. (Not all 12 will, of course, and we could suffer while cycling through a few to finds the ones that are plus.)

[moonslav59]

I’ve been suggesting nothing but defensive improvements and calling them out as such.

Gallo in RF is a massive improvement over the Sox post-Bradley (also pre-Bradley/post-Betts).

Andrus if you are not going thing big at SS is the defensive way to go.

Ok granted thoughts of Wilson Contreras behind the plate are probably a step down from Reese McGuire…

I see your point, but I'd be greatly disappointed with a Contreras, Andrus & Gallo plan for the non-pitching side of the ledger.

It's just extending the bridge or rebuild, whatever you want to call it, and since I doubt we spend big on the rotation, we'll be leaving a pretty big chunk of the $80M on the table.

[mvp 78]

Almost as if this pitcher appeared on our shores from a far off, mystical land…

What are Senga's leadership qualities?

[mvp 78]

MLBTR:
32. Estevez est. $21M/7 (signed for $13.5M/2)
46. Chris Martin est. $14M/2 (signed for $17.5/2)

I thought I saw another site with Estevez ranked slightly higher than Martin in value, but I can't find it.

They are both pretty close. Martin might be better, but his age is scary. I wouldn't have minded seeing us sign both, but there are plenty of good RP'ers left.

Estevez had very good away splits last year, but slightly less pronounced before then. I think people are hoping for a post COL breakout. That doesn't always workout.

[notin]

What are Senga's leadership qualities?

He provides quality leadership…

[mvp 78]

He provides quality leadership…

Sold.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox looking to add Kahnle who is surely to stay healthy this season.

His Statcast looks great if you just multiply his innings by 5.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox looking to add Kahnle who is surely to stay healthy this season.

His Statcast looks great if you just multiply his innings by 5.

I'm still hoping we add Jansen or Rogers, but it is probably more like a dream.

If we add Fulmer and Kahle, but go bigger at SP'er, we might be okay, but we will have to hope, once again, that we stay relatively healthy.

Leaving Hosmer, Dalbec, Refsnyder and Arroyo to handle DH might work out okay, but only if we don't go light at SS and corner OF. Boosting our offense at Catcher migh6t take up some slack in the line-up, but Vaz & McGuire were pretty good on O, last year. (Our catchin OPS was .694 overall.) If we lose on D behind the plate, I'm not sure it's worth the cost.

I doubt we get Nimmo, so it pretty much leaves a top 3 SS as our best hope to at least tread water on O, unless a big trade materializes.

Is Contreras, Conforto, Andrus and in-system players at DH and 1B going to keep our offense about the same?

Casas should be a significant upgrade at 1B. If Story & Kike stay healthy- a plus at 2B and CF. Maybe expect close to the same from Devers & Dugo. It's SS, RF and C still up in the air.