Your 2023 Red Sox starting rotation/depth - as it stands

[Bellhorn04]

22 IP 22 ERA 22 fWAR 22 bWAR

Pivetta 179.67 4.56 1.50 2.60

Whitlock 78.33 3.45 1.40 1.80

Sale 5.67 3.18 0.20 0.00

Paxton 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bello 57.33 4.71 1.30 0.40

Crawford 77.67 5.47 0.50 0.20

Winckowski 70.67 5.89 0.00 -0.30

Seabold 18.33 11.29 -0.20 -1.00

Houck 60.00 3.15 0.70 1.60

 

Average 60.85 4.77 0.60 0.59

[Jasonbay44]

I have almost 0 confidence in that rotation. Paxton and Sale over/under 20.5 starts combined this season?

[moonslav59]

I think we add a starter, but here is what I think might happen (subject to adjustments, later)

 

GS/IP Pitcher ERA

 

33/180 Pivetta 4.25

26/160 Whitlock 3.25

26/150 Bello 4.00

20/110 Sale 3.00

16/90 Crawford 4.75

16/90 Winckowski 5.00

10/40 Paxton 4.25

15/60 Others 5.75

 

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

I think we add a starter, but here is what I think might happen (subject to adjustments, later)

 

GS/IP Pitcher ERA

 

33/180 Pivetta 4.25

26/160 Whitlock 3.25

26/150 Bello 4.00

20/110 Sale 3.00

16/90 Crawford 4.75

16/90 Winckowski 5.00

10/40 Paxton 4.25

15/60 Others 5.75

 

 

 

Pretty optimistic. You're predicting improvements for everyone in ERA, even though offense is supposedly getting a boost next year.

[moonslav59]

Pretty optimistic. You're predicting improvements for everyone in ERA, even though offense is supposedly getting a boost next year.

 

This isn't the realistic thread, LOL.

 

I think I'm closer on ERA than GS and IP.

 

I think Sale, Whitlock and Bello might do better than I guessed but the others probably worse.

[sk7326]

Realistically, bringing both Eovaldi and Wacha back would be good ideas.

 

I mean they are also both injury risks, but there is some actual known upside there.

 

It's a speculative rotation, but at least one where the positive side of the coin is considerable

 

Sale will be good assuming he doesn't tear his rotator cuff doing jumping jacks

Bello has real promise

Eovaldi has been one of the better starters in baseball when he has been healthy

Wacha was good enough for Boston to miss him badly when he was out

Whitlock was never really in a position to start for real. There is some risk that he's really just a great relieve, but he pounds the strike zone which usually is a good sign

Pivetta is an innings eater

[Bellhorn04]

I hate to say it, but this rotation and depth has the potential to be truly abysmal.

 

Adding Eovaldi, Kluber, Wacha, hell just about anyone who can pitch, would make me feel a little better.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I hate to say it, but this rotation and depth has the potential to be truly abysmal.

 

Adding Eovaldi, Kluber, Wacha, hell just about anyone who can pitch, would make me feel a little better.

 

This rotation has plenty of potential -- the potential to lose Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill -- who were all pretty good when not about to go on or come off the IL. That's three starters from a rotation good enough to finish in last place.

 

Something to consider when counting on comebacking rehabbing veterans: the new pitch clock, which they've never dealt with in their careers. Also, another new rule factor for an effective overall pitcher will be the ability to hold runners on base, without throwing over unless he has a killer pick-off move.

 

Prediction: younger pitchers with pitch clock experience will be early staff leaders, at least... so Bello and Whitlock > Sale and Paxton (and that's not even counting health).

[Bellhorn04]

The good news is, Bloom has promised to add a starter who provides upside, leadership and innings.

 

Can anyone guess who he's talking about?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The good news is, Bloom has promised to add a starter who provides upside, leadership and innings.

 

Can anyone guess who he's talking about?

 

He's already offered #5 starters $13M AAV (which they accepted from other clubs instead)... but isn't allowed to give a Japanese ace $15M?

 

Must be saving the budget for a longterm Rodon contract. Yea, sure.

 

Maybe Old Red is on to something about the Sox confusing their international recruits?

[moonslav59]

I hate to say it, but this rotation and depth has the potential to be truly abysmal.

 

Adding Eovaldi, Kluber, Wacha, hell just about anyone who can pitch, would make me feel a little better.

 

But, hey, we fixed the pen! Wasn't that all we needed to do, according to so many, here.

 

This could end up being a fine exemplar of how robbing Peter to pay Paul ends up leaving a team no better off.

 

Yes, we could have signed Jansen, last year, but would we have been any better off with him over Wacha and Hill?

 

We'd have needed to start Whitlock or Houck more or given Wink and Crawford 15-20 more starts each- or both!

 

It's a balancing act.

[Bellhorn04]

But, hey, we fixed the pen! Wasn't that all we needed to do, according to so many, here.

 

I don't think anyone said fix the pen and f**k the rotation, but I could be wrong.

[notin]

I don't think anyone said fix the pen and f**k the rotation, but I could be wrong.

 

Especially those who called to fix the pen during the season…

[moonslav59]

I don't think anyone said fix the pen and f**k the rotation, but I could be wrong.

 

Nobody said it, but they fail to realize that spending in one area means not spending in another.

 

"We went over the tax line anyway, so we could have done both."

 

Could and would is the key and flawed mindset switch, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody said it, but they fail to realize that spending in one area means not spending in another.

 

"We went over the tax line anyway, so we could have done both."

 

Could and would is the key and flawed mindset switch, IMO.

 

It doesn't matter what any of us say, though. It's up to the team to know what they're doing.

 

I think we've all agreed that there are no excuses for not making the playoffs this year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Latest on Eovaldi is that other clubs are showing more reported interest than the Red Sox. The shock value is like walking on shag carpet in your socks and touching a doorknob.

 

But I've figured out Bloom's mystery man with upside: Cole Hamels! He hasn't pitched in three or four years, but at 39 is younger than Verlander and Scherzer... and obviously well-rested.

 

Imagine the perfect Bloom guy: a World Series hero from decades ago that will only cost minimum wage -- and we won't have to activate Blake Swihart out of retirement to acquire him.

[Larry Cook]

Latest on Eovaldi is that other clubs are showing more reported interest than the Red Sox. The shock value is like walking on shag carpet in your socks and touching a doorknob.

 

But I've figured out Bloom's mystery man with upside: Cole Hamels! He hasn't pitched in three or four years, but at 39 is younger than Verlander and Scherzer... and obviously well-rested.

 

Imagine the perfect Bloom guy: a World Series hero from decades ago that will only cost minimum wage -- and we won't have to activate Blake Swihart out of retirement to acquire him.

 

Over the last two months of the season, eovaldi’s velocity fell off a cliff. I think Hang’em Chaim realizes eovaldi is cooked.

 

I think the Red Sox are looking at a different Japanese starter for our 2023 rotation.

[moonslav59]

It doesn't matter what any of us say, though. It's up to the team to know what they're doing.

 

I think we've all agreed that there are no excuses for not making the playoffs this year.

 

What excuse can you give for so many vets declining all at once? Age for some, but others were moving towards prime.

 

Injuries can be used as an excuse, and we did have more than any GM can really plan for, especially one on a limited budget, but they did make a big difference.

 

The worst part was that almost all our starters got hurt at the same time while Sale and Paxton never came to the rescue (expected by most.)

 

Story and Arroyo- hurt at the same time.

 

Kike hurt while JBJ sucked.

 

Devers playing hurt at a time we need to rally the troops for a final push.

 

The major fall off in RBIs by Bogey and JD has no reasonable excuse I can think of. That was a major factor, along with blown saves that led to the swing in losses from 2021.

 

RBI totals Bogey + JD:

135 '22

178 '21

100 '20 in just 60 games (projects to 260+ in 162 games)

222 '19

233 '18

 

Blown Saves (Save %)

39 (57%) '22

49 (64%) '21

14 (52%) '20 short season

33 (52%)'19

46 (70%) '18

 

The best 2 percents were 2018 and 2021. No surprise.

 

 

 

 

.

[Bellhorn04]

What excuse can you give for so many vets declining all at once? Age for some, but others were moving towards prime.

 

Injuries can be used as an excuse, and we did have more than any GM can really plan for, especially one on a limited budget, but they did make a big difference.

 

The worst part was that almost all our starters got hurt at the same time while Sale and Paxton never came to the rescue (expected by most.)

 

Story and Arroyo- hurt at the same time.

 

Kike hurt while JBJ sucked.

 

Devers playing hurt at a time we need to rally the troops for a final push.

 

The major fall off in RBIs by Bogey and JD has no reasonable excuse I can think of. That was a major factor, along with blown saves that led to the swing in losses from 2021.

 

RBI totals Bogey + JD:

135 '22

178 '21

100 '20 in just 60 games (projects to 260+ in 162 games)

222 '19

233 '18

 

Blown Saves (Save %)

39 (57%) '22

49 (64%) '21

14 (52%) '20 short season

33 (52%)'19

46 (70%) '18

 

The best 2 percents were 2018 and 2021. No surprise.

 

 

 

 

.

 

Sorry, when I said "this season" I meant 2023.

[notin]

It doesn't matter what any of us say, though. It's up to the team to know what they're doing.

 

I think we've all agreed that there are no excuses for not making the playoffs this year.

 

Which means what? What exactly will any of us do if the Sox don’t make the postseason this year?

[Bellhorn04]

Which means what? What exactly will any of us do if the Sox don’t make the postseason this year?

 

Nothing. But Bloom might be gone.

[redsoxrules]

I think Blooms mystery man for a SP is going to be a Japanese starter Shintaro Fujinami. According to Masslive they are looking at him. Although I don't know how credible that is

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom must have a trade for a starter in the works. It's the only thing that makes sense.

[notin]

Nothing. But Bloom might be gone.

 

Maybe.

 

Really depends on what Henry wants, too…

[moonslav59]

Sorry, when I said "this season" I meant 2023.

 

No excuses needed for a season yet to be played out.

[notin]

I think Blooms mystery man for a SP is going to be a Japanese starter Shintaro Fujinami. According to Masslive they are looking at him. Although I don't know how credible that is

 

Fujinami is a reliever…

[notin]

No excuses needed for a season yet to be played out.

 

Exactly, damnit!! What’s the holdup here?!?

[moonslav59]

I think Blooms mystery man for a SP is going to be a Japanese starter Shintaro Fujinami. According to Masslive they are looking at him. Although I don't know how credible that is

 

Or how credible he is as a 2/3 SP'er, which is the least we need.

 

Maybe sign him and Fulmer and push Houck to the rotation.

[moonslav59]

Exactly, damnit!! What’s the holdup here?!?

 

I understand why losing Bogey casts a big shadow over this winter, but with just normal health (not even counting Sale and Paxton), we'll be getting an expected boost. Casas and Bello look very promising. They barely played in the bigs, last year.

 

The step up we needed may not have to all be realized by this winter's additions.

 

Yes, we lost some key players- 6 or 7 of them, some of which did not do as well in 2022 as before, yet we think of them as how they were in 2018- like Nate & JD. We also lost some real bad performers from 2022: JBJ, Cordero, Diekman, Davis, Sawamura and others, and we should see less underperforming from Dalbec, Duran, Brasier and others.

 

There are many things to be optimistic about, but we are choosing to focus on losing Bogey and back to Betts and even Lester.

 

Let's see how the rest of the winter additions play out. There may be a big trade or two in the works that might turn fans around in an instant.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe.

 

Really depends on what Henry wants, too…

 

Yes, and he has a great history of staying patient...