So, guys that succeed should be even better after a long winter's nap.Originally Posted by sk7326
So, guys that succeed should be even better after a long winter's nap.
Kiley McDaniel, ESPN, Top 100 https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...kiley-mcdaniel
7. Marcelo Mayer
37. Triston CasasReminds me of: Christian Yelich, but at shortstop
The easy comparison as a 6-3, lefty-hitting shortstop is Corey Seager, but I don't think Mayer has the frame or projectability to get to the Seager or Carlos Correa level of power while also playing shortstop. That's no problem, though, as Mayer is one of the best track-record shortstops in recent draft history, with scouts circling his name in their programs since early in his high school career. He held serve all the way to draft day in 2021 as a toss-up with Jordan Lawlar for best prospect in the draft. For still unclear reasons, both players slid out of the top three (Henry Davis, Jack Leiter, Jackson Jobe went with those picks and are all much lower on this list or just off of it).
Mayer has the choice to lean more into power or contact, but either way he will come with defensive value, like Yelich did in the outfield. I'll split the difference and call both Mayer's hit and power tools 55-grade ability (.270 with 20-25 homers), but either could also be a 60, and there are no concerns that he can post at least average defensive performances at shortstop. Mayer isn't a burner and isn't traditionally explosive in the "I'd love to see this guy at an NFL combine" way, but he has all the little baseball-specific skills that are required to be a perennial All-Star.
95. Miguel BleisType: Similar to Anthony Rizzo at the plate, but less talented in the field.
Like Crow-Armstrong, Casas was well-known early in his prep career, showing plus power at the same high school that produced Eric Hosmer. He also played with current Mets 3B Mark Vientos and likely 2023 1st rounder Enrique Bradfield Jr. (Vanderbilt). Casas has held serve due to a sweet swing and an elite hit/approach/power combination that has continued to make him look like an above-average everyday player even while he has long shown little to no speed or defensive value. Like Peraza, Casas is likely to break camp with the big league team after a successful 2022 audition: I'd expect 20 homers and a strong on-base percentage in 2023
Ceddane Rafaela is in the just missed list.Type: Explosive bat speed and big power potential, but it's early
Bleis is still 18 years old for another month and has been drawing buzz for his past two summers, in the Dominican Summer League in 2021 and the domestic complex league in 2022. That's only 76 pro games in total, but he was a notable amateur prospect, signing for $1.5 million in 2020, and the tools are obvious.
He has easy plus bat speed and power potential along with a strong sense of the strike zone for a prospect of his age. Again, it's still early as he has faced only the lowest levels of the minors, but the pieces are here. The upside is limited a bit by his average speed and likely long-term fit in right field.
SP's has Theo Denlinger on the 2024 Rule 5 Eligibility List.
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The projected Woo rotation is all on the 40:
(with some selected quotes from SPs)
Mata Will show the potential for a true four-pitch mix with two potential plus offerings. Has shown the ability to miss bats with all four pitches at various points in his career. Harnessing command of his arsenal will be key for his development.
Walter Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Will show a starter's arsenal with three average-or-better pitches and the ability to turn over a lineup, but does not have a typical starter's delivery. Control is already above-average-to-plus and command should get to at least average.
Crawford Ceiling of a high-quality swingman, capable of pitching in short or long relief outings with the occasional spot start as well. Has the potential for two above-average offerings in his fastball and curveball and a solid third pitch with his cutter, but command needs refinement.
Winckowski misses more bats than his changeup at this point, but still does not at a very high level. Margin for error is slim, as he has to rely on commanding his pitches and generating weak contact. To stick as a starter long-term, needs to make strides with his command and improve his slider to the point where it can be counted on as a consistent bat-missing pitch at the major league level. Can effectively tunnel his fastball, sinker, vertical slider and changeup, with all moving in similar ways, but could stand to mix in more of his cutter or a horizontal slider to give hitters a different look. Very competitive. Really thinks about pitching and is always trying to refine his craft.
Murphy Ceiling of a back-end starter. Lacks a standout pitch, but has three averageish pitches and a fourth that can be effective when used on occasion. Needs to improve consistency with secondary pitches and command to allow him to work deeper into games and develop into a consistent starter. Chances of starting are better now than in the past now that he has shown he can consistently get right-handed hitters out, something he really struggled with coming into 2022. Showed inconsistent ability to miss bats in 2022 and will need to show more consistency there if he is to stick as a starter.
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Two fringy prospect SP'ers who may make a run at ML time in 2023 or 2024:
Victor Santos Potential solid organizational starter. Ceiling of an emergency up-and-down depth arm. High floor/low ceiling. Potential for two average secondary pitches, but lack of fastball potential limits ceiling. Has solid feel for pitching and an advanced command profile. Will throw strikes, but lacks put-away stuff against minor league bats and will struggle even more against more advanced hitters.
Shane Drohan Potential up-and-down depth arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter or, more likely, middle reliever. Athletic left-hander who will show a three-pitch mix, but needs to develop physically and add velocity. Has more upside remaining than a typical college draftee. Has the type of athleticism you look for in a pitcher. Has shown a general feel for pitching and a repeatable delivery. Fastball command needs improvement, but changeup development and left-handedness give him a chance, most likely in a bullpen role.
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Some Relief help from the farm?
(Note: Mata, Crawford, Walter, Wink and Murphy may all play a role in the 2023 Red Sox pen as converted starters.)
Zach Kelly [I]Projects as a middle reliever. Ceiling of a consistent seventh-inning arm. Likely lacks late-inning upside due to inconsistent command, but could stick around for a while as a sixth-inning arm. Fastball and changeup both project as plus pitches, with changeup showing true bat-missing ability. Cutter is more of a pitch-to-contact offering at present, but if it improves, would give him a third pitch that can miss bats. Late bloomer who could continue to improve and see his stuff take a step forward again[/I
Kaleb Ort Potential up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of a fifth-/sixth-inning arm who slots in as one of the last few members of a pitching staff. Future potential is tied up in improving his command. Has MLB-quality stuff, but command needs to take a step forward.
Not on 40 man, (Spring Training Invites) as of now...
Durbin Feltman Projects as a high-minors depth arm. Stuff and command and control have regressed across the board in 2022. Now projects for an average fastball and fringy secondaries. Unlikely to be able to regain stuff he showed initially after signing at this point. Candidate for a change of scenery where hearing other voices could help him regain his past form.
Chase Shugart Projects as a solid organizational depth arm. Ceiling of an emergency major league depth reliever. Fastball and curveball show the most potential in arsenal. Athletic and repeats delivery well, but lacks consistency and may not miss many bats against major league hitters.
Taylor Broadway Intriguing arm with a power three-pitch mix that could profile in a major league bullpen role. Has shown premium bat-missing ability, but also been hit very hard. Developing command and consistency are key for him to reach his potential.
Ryan Sheriff Emergency lefty relief arm. Two-pitch pitcher might benefit from adding his changeup back to his arsenal. Could settle in at the back end of a major league bullpen if he can hone his control issues.
Matt Dermody Emergency Triple-A depth lefty bullpen arm.
Oddanier Mosqueda Projects as organizational bullpen depth. Ceiling of an up-and-down reliever. Has improved year after year and shown bat-missing ability. Secondary pitches and command and control need refinement. Will show intriguing spin rates on fastball and slider. Comes from a very tough angle for left-handed hitters and has excelled against them so far in the high minors.
Norwith Gudino Projects as high minors depth with a chance to hone his three pitch mix to get a shot in the majors.
Dan Altavilla Big fastball slider combo. Ceiling of a mid leverage bullpen arm if he comes back healthy. Control has been an issue in the past.
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Everyday Farm Help:
Enmanuel Valdez (DH/1B/2B/LF?) Potential up-and-down, platoon bat. Ceiling of a bat-first utility player. Makes hard contact and has a decent approach against right-handed pitchers, but struggles against lefties. Has moved around the diamond, but that is driven by him being below-average defensively and trying to find where he will best fit rather than true versatility. Will have to hit to hold value given defensive limitations.
Ceddanne Rafaela (CF/SS/2B) Potential bench utility player. Ceiling of an everyday regular who adds considerable value on defense and also contributes some at the plate. Defensive ability and versatility and speed give him a high floor. Could be a plus defender at every position except catcher and first base. Bat lags behind, but has improved considerably in 2022. Approach is what holds him back now and will determine his ultimate value at the plate. Needs to cut down on chasing pitches out of the zone and improve swing decisions and quality of contact.
Bobby Dalbec (DH/3B/1B/2B/LF?) Projects as a valuable role player on a contending team. Ultimate future potential depends on how his hit tool develops. Has the ceiling of an everyday regular with average defense who hits 30-plus home runs in his best seasons if he proves he can make enough contact against advanced pitching. If his hit tool doesn't progress he could struggle to make enough contact and become more of an up-and-down player. 2019 improvements helped to address these concerns, but needs to show those are real and not just a one-year aberration. He has worked hard cut down his strikeout rate as he has moved up the system and has improved considerably since he joined the organization as someone who came with more risk than a normal college performer. Tweaked swing mechanics and sole focus on hitting - no longer having to pitch - have helped. Has the potential for two plus-to-better tools in power and arm. Unlikely to ever hit for a high average and will always have a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but teams will be able to live with that given his power potential.
David Hamilton (IF) Potential organizational utility player. Ceiling of an emergency up-and-down utility type. Could stand to remake his swing in order to prioritize line drives and hitting the ball on the ground more in order to better utilize his speed. Lack of defensive ability limits upside. Projects as below-average in the infield and could stand to move to the outfield, where his speed and athleticism would be better utilized.
Wilyer Abreu (OF) Potential organizational outfielder. Ceiling of a major league reserve outfielder. Development of hit tool will determine his long-term potential. Has raw power and will take a walk, but needs to cut down on his swing-and-miss and show he can consistently make contact and impact the baseball.
Non 40 man roster...
Jorge Alfaro (C) Major league catcher. May not be an everyday players due to strikeout numbers. But should stick on a major league roster due to his power, defense, energy, and arm strength.
Raimel Tapia (OF) Profiles as a reliable fourth outfielder and pinch runner. Value comes in his bat-to-ball skills, speed, base running, and versatility in the outfield.
Greg Allen (OF) Solid Triple-A depth and 4th outfielder option.
Christian Koss (IF) Potential emergency up-and-down utility infielder. Ceiling of a utility infielder. Hit tool development will be key to reaching his potential. Has enough defense and power to profile in a bench role, but upside is limited if he cannot make more contact.
Narisco Crook (DH/OF) Triple-A depth. Said to be a fantastic clubhouse presence and a very well-liked player. Potential to be an emergency corner outfielder in an injury situation due to his defense and power. Contact skills limit upside.
Others:
Caleb Hamilton C
Ronaldo Hernandez C
Stephen Scott C
Ryan Fitzgerald IF
Nick Sogard IF
Matt Lugo IF
Delvin Granberg OF
(M Mayer- late in the season?)
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soxprospects.com...
er signing a minor-league deal with the Red Sox two weeks ago, infielder Edwin Diaz has been added to Puerto Rico's roster for the upcoming Caribbean Series in Venezuela. The right-handed hitting 27-year-old was named LBPRC MVP after batting .229/375/.418 with eight homers and 29 RBI over 48 games (192 plate appearances) for the Criollos de Caguas this winter.
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Will we see much change in the soxprospects rankings list from the end of year to the opening day 2023 list. Looking at past lists, there usually is little change near the top.
They had already "graduated" Wong and Ort in December. I'm not sure why they were then, while Bello was in October. Recents grads are:
Wong & Ort 12/22
Bello 10/22
Wink 9/22
Crawford 8/22
Duran 7/22
Houck 9/21
Whitlock 6/21
Dalbec 5/21
I'm not sure how much fall and winter performances affect player rankings, but I'm guessing we don't see much movement or highly ranked additions from IFA signings or trades.
Here's my guess:
1. Mayer
2. Casas (will likely graduate in '23)
3. Bleis
4. Rafaela
5. Yorke
6. Mata
7. Romero
8. Walter
9. Anthony
10. Perales
11. Paulino
12. Gonzalez
13. Lugo
14. Murphy
15. Jordan
16. EValdez
17. Bonaci
18. Hickey
19. Rodriguez-Cruz
20. Kavadas
21. Yoeilin Cespedes (IFA)
22. Coffey
23. Drohan
24. Franklin Arias (IFA)
25. Kelly
26. Yoiber Ruiz (IFA)
27. Abreu
28. Brannon
29. Paez
30. Ro. Hernandez
31. Uberstine
32. Hamilton
33. Guerrero
34. Encarnacion
35. McDonough
36. Koss
37. Binelas
38. Theo Denlinger (German Trade)
39. Alcantara
40. Fernandez
41. Salazar
42. Meidroth
43. Luis Arrendondo (IFA)
44. Argeny Sanchez (IFA)
45. S Scott
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There has been some talk about just how much credit Bloom should get for building up the farm. Some seem to doubt he's built much up, at all.
Almost every trade Bloom has made, even for ML talent, included a prospect or two coming our way. It doesn't seem like any of those trades have led to concrete positive results, to date, but the jury is still out on many prospects.
Prospects traded for:
Wong and Downs (with Verdugo) for Betts, Price and cash
Jeffrey Springs (prospect?) for Sam Travis
Hudson Potts & Jeisson Rosario for Moreland
Jacob Wallace for Pillar
(Wyatt Mills for J Wallace)
Winckowski, de la Rosa, Gambrell, F Valdez (with Cordero) for Beni
Seabold (with Pivetta) for Workman & Hembree (Seabold traded for PTBNL or cash)
F German (with Ottavino) for cash
Theo Denlinger for F German
Ronaldo Hernandez & Nick Sogard for Springs & Mazza
Christian Koss for Yoan Aybar
David Hamilton & Alex Binelas (wtih JBJ) for Renfroe
Enmanuel Valdez & Wilyer Abreu for Vazquez
Max Ferguson & Corey Rozier (with Hosmer) for Groome
Minor deals: Leon for Adenys Bautista and Osich for Zach Bryant plus others
The trade addition outlook still has some promise, but we have yet to see anything good at the ML, yet.
MiLFA/Waivers/Rule 5...
Garrett Whitlock
Zach Kelly
Rob Refsnyder (not a prospect)
Kaleb Ort
Pretty good group of players, here.
Drafted (SP ranking) Pretty nice list
1. Mayer
5. Yorke
7. Romero
9. Anthony
15. Jordan
18. Hickey
19. E R-C
20. Kavadas
21. Coffey
23. Drohan
27. Brannon
29. Uberstine
IFA (SP ranking) Nice list with more to move up, this year
3. Bleis
28. Paez
Not Traded (DD's kids) Very nice job by DD
2. Casas
4. Rafaela
6. Mata
8. Walter
10. Peralez
11. Paulino
12. Wikelman
13. Murphy
14. Lugo
16. Bonaci
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Dombrowski had no say in those INTL guys. That's 100% on the scouting department. Aside from Casas and Mata, it's really hard to give him ANY credit for the players left over. The guys in the group were highly unlikely or ineligible to be traded back in 2019.
My comment about "not being traded" was from the Bloom perspective. Part of farm building or usage involves trading for and trading away prospects. Bloom's biggest trade aways were Aldo Ramirez and maybe Jay Groome. The Whitlock "get" on Rule 5 may be partially offset by the "give" of TWard.
Part of the reason the farm has grown stronger, IMO, is due to very few trades of prospects since DD's last year here.
I agree about who gets the credit for IFA signings, but ultimately the scouts are hired or kept in the system by the GM.
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What are the chances Mayer ends up playing short in Boston by the end of '23?
The current big league shortstops include Kike and Mondesi, the projected starter coming off a hip injury and a speed guy who blew out his knee. It's possible either or both experience setbacks. It's also doubtful Story returns to the line-up and plays shortstop, with his Tom Jon brace (modified Tommy John option).
If Mayer progresses to Portland and crushes Double A -- and the Red Sox are in a wild card race and need a spark -- it could happen. If Boston is out of it, look for stop-gaps to fill in and finish out the year: Arroyo, Goodrum, Cora, etc.
I'm on the record as saying it will happen this year. This is similar to the path that Devers followed. It just entirely depends on him mashing early on. I don't think they should promote him due to injury, but due to him being ready. I've heard that his approach is good enough to work at higher levels, so I think it wouldn't set him back.
It's more likely that he finishes this year in POR, but I'm still leaning towards him having a monster year.
I'd love to see Mayer, this year, and yes, not because of injury, but we did see what happened with Bogey. If we are in the hunt, anything goes.
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