2023 Prospects

[sk7326]

Wikelman had the highest strikeout rate for starting pitchers in the minors -- and his ceiling is only mid-rotation?

What does a guy have to do for Soxprospects.com to rate a top-of-the-ro ceiling, lead the minors in no-hitters rate?

Throw strikes

[sk7326]

2. Weird about Roman since Mayer was awful in AA and Roman was good in a SSS.
4. No, Rafaela will never fix his plate discipline. He will always swing at everything he can reach.
6. If they trade Verdugo, Abreu will be featured heavily for the '23 Sox IMO. I think he's fine as the 4th OFer since he can play all 4 positions.
7. No.
8. My guess is that '23 looks similar to '22 and that his bat is not transcendent. At least his glove is adequate now. I'd trade him.
9. He has a better chance to start than #7.
10. We won't know until '25 most likely. He'll most likely tear up the FCL. He won't see advanced pitching until Salem.

Mayer played through a shoulder injury and was one of the youngest regulars in the league (Anthony of course was even younger) ... if he is awful after an offseason of rest/rehab I would get the skepticism. And there is likely positional value things too.

Agreed on Rafaela - though that doesn't preclude being a solid big leaguer. There is enough power and defense that he just has to improve a little in the discipline area.

[sk7326]

Pretty close to soxprospects.com

I think the top 3 have a pretty big gap between them and the next set of 2-3 prospects.

Yes. Cespedes is a wild card though just because he smoked a level as a 17-year old. The range of outcomes is wide - but the age-performance combination is what you want.

[moonslav59]

2. Weird about Roman since Mayer was awful in AA and Roman was good in a SSS.
4. No, Rafaela will never fix his plate discipline. He will always swing at everything he can reach.
6. If they trade Verdugo, Abreu will be featured heavily for the '23 Sox IMO. I think he's fine as the 4th OFer since he can play all 4 positions.
7. No.
8. My guess is that '23 looks similar to '22 and that his bat is not transcendent. At least his glove is adequate now. I'd trade him.
9. He has a better chance to start than #7.
10. We won't know until '25 most likely. He'll most likely tear up the FCL. He won't see advanced pitching until Salem.

I think Rafaela will be an okay MLB hitter (.700-.725 through prime years.) I would guess the odds are he does worse than this over better.

[Bellhorn04]

Speier's Top 10 Sox Prospects https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/...top-prospects/

1. Marcelo Mayer
2. Roman Anthony - key question: Why Mayer over Anthony as the top prospect (short answer, longer track record of performance against older peers)
3. Kyle Teel - key question: Can Teel swim in the deep end? (already in AA, being aggressively moved for his position)
4. Ceddane Rafaela - key: Can his swing decisions improve?
5. Miguel Bleis - key: How will he come back from shoulder surgery?
6. Wilyer Abreu - key: Will he open the year in the Boston lineup? (he is probably the most likely of the prospects for 2024 impact)
7. Wikelman Gonzalez - key Can he throw enough strikes to start?
8. Nick Yorke - key: Which path will he take? (2021, 2022, 2023 gave three very different answers)
9. Luis Perales - key: Can he throw enough strikes to start?
10. Yoellin Cespedes - key: Will he keep dominating against more advanced pitching? (crazy exit velos for his age, but it's still low level)

Nice recap.

[moonslav59]

Yes. Cespedes is a wild card though just because he smoked a level as a 17-year old. The range of outcomes is wide - but the age-performance combination is what you want.

I just have a sneaky feeling Cespedes is going to be very special.

[moonslav59]

Throw strikes

Throw over 95 mph as a starter?

[Larry Cook]

Which of our top prospects should we be willing to part with as trade bait????

[moonslav59]

Which of our top prospects should we be willing to part with as trade bait????

We'll have to give to get.

Of course, I'd prefer a larger package of mid tier prospects than one of our top 4, but that's a pipedream, if we want an ace or possible one.

To me, the trade order is this, and it's not about who I think is the 4th best, 3rd best... It's about current trade value to other teams, our current needs and my perception of these guys' ceilings:

1. Mayer
2. Bleis, but I'm not sure his trade value is worth his very high ceiling.
T3. Teel, since great catching prospects are hard to come by.
T3. Anthony, because this guy seems to be most likely to be a stud, to me, and I think other GMs would prefer Mayer or Teel.

Rafaela is probably #5, but the gap is big between 4 & 5.

Yorke, Perales, Wikelman, Abreu and Cespedes will not get us an ace. I'm not sure two or three would.

[mvp 78]

I would not trade Anthony or Teel. I'd probably hold onto Cespedes as well just because his trade value is much lower than what his value could be next September. Everyone else could be available in the right trade.

[moonslav59]

I would not trade Anthony or Teel. I'd probably hold onto Cespedes as well just because his trade value is much lower than what his value could be next September. Everyone else could be available in the right trade.

I totally agree.

I do worry more about trading Bleis than Mayer, because I doubt Bleis brings us a very good pitcher, even if coupled with two tier two prospects.

I think Mayer has high trade value and is the logical one to trade. We also have a SS for the next 3-4 years.

[sk7326]

Which of our top prospects should we be willing to part with as trade bait????

Mayer maybe is #1. That said, I think his trade value is likely slightly diminished until he shows his shoulder is healthy. And - again, Anthony's performance last year kind of skews how we look at Mayer. Boston could very well decide that Mayer is among the level of prospects that orgs like Boston keep for themselves. And that would make sense to me.

Honestly, this question is where the org-wide lack of pitching REALLY hurts. If we had more high level organizational pitching prospects, they become good candidates as high level trade bait.