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Thread: Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

  1. #1
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

    There are a lot of variables going into this winter, concerning the 2024 Red Sox roster and budget. It's hard to know what the budget plans are and where the roster priorities are, but that won't stop us from discussing them and giving our ideas, suggestions, predictions and criticisms.

    Right now, we have 45 players on the 40 man roster, due to 5 guys on the 60 day IL: Kluber, Mondesi, Mills, Kelly and Ort, and since there is no 60 day IL in the offseason, we will need to deal with those 5 slots, but not to worry, we have 5 players that will become free agents:
    Paxton
    Duvall
    Mondesi
    Kluber (option not be offered- no buyout.)
    Turner (player option will surely be turned down)

    That brings us to 40 without considering added free agents or trade acquisitions over the winter and Rule 5 additions. I can't see how we don't add at least 2-3 players to the roster via free agency or by trades involving non 40 man roster players. The Rule 5 list is rather long, but many are on the bubble. I'm thinking 5-6 are pretty sure bets to be protected and maybe 1-3 others as strong considerations. Here are my lists:
    Sure bets:
    W Gonzalez
    L Perales
    S Drohan
    G Gambrell
    S Scott

    Strong consideration:
    A Castro (too low level to be selected?)
    B Bonaci

    Kinda long shots:
    E Paulino
    M Lugo
    J Hagenman
    C-J Liu
    R Fernandez
    L de la Rosa
    A Bastardo
    B Bell
    B Gonzalez

    Let's say we protect 7 Rule 5 and add 3 free agents, that would mean 10 players will need to be DFA'd, non tendered or traded for non 40 man roster prospects.

    Here is my list of 8, and none of them make me feel worried we are handing one away:
    1. Ort
    2. Garza
    3. Weiss
    4. Barraclough
    5. Jacques
    6. Llovera
    7. DHam (trade)
    8. Dalbec (trade)

    Bubble players (trade away?)
    Wyatt Mills
    Zack Kelly

    Valued players thought to be possible trade bait"
    Dugo or Duran
    Sale (with cash)
    Joely, Murphy, Walter, Robertson or Mata
    EValdez

    I don't see a big roster squeeze, unless we try to sign 4-6 free agents and protect 7-9 Rule 5'ers.

    On the budget, a more detailed breakdown will be coming, but we are adding the Devers Raise (almost $12M) and have a bunch or ARB raises ('23 salary):
    6.3 Dugo (3rd arb of 3)
    5.3 Pivetta (3 of 3)
    4.7 Urias (3 of 4)
    1.2 McGuire (2 of 3)
    min Barraclough (3 of 3)
    750K Schreiber (1 of 3)
    min Dalbec (1 of 3)
    cots has us at $158M before any arbs or options. That leaves about $80M for ARBs and additions.

    More to come...










    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  2. #2
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Bloom probably isn't quite done with 1 year deals for veterans like Turner and Duvall. Which were both good moves.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Bloom probably isn't quite done with 1 year deals for veterans like Turner and Duvall. Which were both good moves.

    Will he ever be done with them? Will any CBO/GM ever be done with them?

  4. #4
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Bloom probably isn't quite done with 1 year deals for veterans like Turner and Duvall. Which were both good moves.
    Most teams sign a few each year, and it's often a good idea.

    I think we don't have many slots to fill, but we may add some depth players on 1 year deals at positions where we are not sure incoming kids are good enough, yet.

    IIf we sign one more SP'er as our best one to a 1 year $10M contract, I'll be as gloom and doom as fred lynn.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  5. #5
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Is this a top contending team?

    SP1 Nola
    SP2 Yamamoto
    SP3 Bello
    SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck
    SP5 Pivetta

    Closer Jansen
    RP2 Martin
    RP3 Schreiber
    RP4 Crawford (SP?)
    RP5 Houck (SP?)
    RP6 Whitlock
    RP7 Winckowski
    RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

    1. Duran/Refsnyder LF
    2. Devers 3B
    3. Story SS
    4. Casas 1B
    5. Yoshida DH
    6. Dugo RF
    7. Rafaela/Abreu CF
    8. Urias/Reyes 2B
    9. Wong/McGuire C
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  6. #6
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    I really don't know how to address the BIG elephant in the room question (starting pitching) but I did like the two year deals on Jansen and Martin. I'd like to target maybe another set up guy to a two year deal. 2023 definitely showed the value of being able to protect leads in the last two innings.
    I write fictional stories in my spare time. So don't fact check me. Better?

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Will he ever be done with them? Will any CBO/GM ever be done with them?
    A GM might be done with JT when his beard turns white. But by then, he might be the GM...

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Is this a top contending team?

    SP1 Nola
    SP2 Yamamoto
    SP3 Bello
    SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck
    SP5 Pivetta

    Closer Jansen
    RP2 Martin
    RP3 Schreiber
    RP4 Crawford (SP?)
    RP5 Houck (SP?)
    RP6 Whitlock
    RP7 Winckowski
    RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

    1. Duran/Refsnyder LF
    2. Devers 3B
    3. Story SS
    4. Casas 1B
    5. Yoshida DH
    6. Dugo RF
    7. Rafaela/Abreu CF
    8. Urias/Reyes 2B
    9. Wong/McGuire C
    I don't think so. The two best hitters from this year's mediocrity -- Turner and Duvall -- are missing. I don't expect Verdugo to be back, and Duvall would be a logical replacement -- and maybe even more valuable as a righty pull hitter (something too lacking in this lefty-laden batting order for Fenway) and middle of the order anchor. Story should improve, but at this stage in his career I don't expect him to make enough consistent contact to be a productive #3 hitter.

    The #8-9 platoon guys are also just placeholders for regulars that may truly turn this group into a "top contender." I'm talking Mayer at SS (Story moves to 2B) and Teel at C. Best-case scenario: they're this century's Lynn-Rice Rookie-of-the-Year twins by 2025. But since neither is an outfielder, we'll settle for the debuts of Nomar-Fisk...

    Unfortunately, under the devious and not-so-deceptive Henry-Bloom 100-month plan, we may need to wait until then before they finally invest in any top-of-the-rotation pitching.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Is this a top contending team?

    SP1 Nola
    SP2 Yamamoto
    SP3 Bello
    SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck
    SP5 Pivetta

    Closer Jansen
    RP2 Martin
    RP3 Schreiber
    RP4 Crawford (SP?)
    RP5 Houck (SP?)
    RP6 Whitlock
    RP7 Winckowski
    RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

    1. Duran/Refsnyder LF
    2. Devers 3B
    3. Story SS
    4. Casas 1B
    5. Yoshida DH
    6. Dugo RF
    7. Rafaela/Abreu CF
    8. Urias/Reyes 2B
    9. Wong/McGuire C
    No! No on the rotation. Duran had lost a lot of his luster before he got hurt, so no on him, and the Ref Man in LF. Raf, and Abreu are untested, and Dugy is up in the air. The $100M man is a question where he plays too. Take out JT, and Duvall out of this lineup, and it could be very weak. Then another big question is if Story Land will be opened, or closed. Could still be a bad defensive IF too. It would be a contender for something, but I don’t think for the top, and maybe worse than this year. I don’t see any Mookie Betts in the lineup. Where’s he?
    Last edited by Old Red; 09-01-2023 at 06:58 AM.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Is this a top contending team?

    SP1 Nola
    SP2 Yamamoto
    SP3 Bello
    SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck
    SP5 Pivetta

    Closer Jansen
    RP2 Martin
    RP3 Schreiber
    RP4 Crawford (SP?)
    RP5 Houck (SP?)
    RP6 Whitlock
    RP7 Winckowski
    RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

    1. Duran/Refsnyder LF
    2. Devers 3B
    3. Story SS
    4. Casas 1B
    5. Yoshida DH
    6. Dugo RF
    7. Rafaela/Abreu CF
    8. Urias/Reyes 2B
    9. Wong/McGuire C
    With a clean bill of health (relatively speaking) I think that should be.

    Adding two top teir pitchers would be transformative, and ultimately strengthens the bottom of the rotation AND the bullpen.

    If the sophmores take a step forward that team could be very good. I still woulnd't mind seeing a better solution in the OF. I think the team could use a RHH OFer. Maybe bring Duval back if it's reasonable.
    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    New Prediction. The Sox will make a major starting pitching acquisition in the 2023/24 offseason.

  11. #11
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    Trade Duran. To Miami for Braxton Garrett is still relatively close.

    Sign Matt Chapman.

    Sign a TBD RP.

    C - Wong, McGuire
    1b - Devers. Unless you agree with the moronic logic that his contract should keep him at 3b
    2b - Urias. Upgrade is possible. He’s a meh defender
    SS - Story. Probably the Sox best defensive SS since Alex Gonzalez
    3b - Chapman. Would easily be the Sox best defensive 3b in the last half century
    LF - Yoshida
    CF - Rafaela
    RF - Verdugo
    DH - Casas

    SP - Sale, Garrett, Bello, Crawford, Houck
    RP - Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino, Pivetta (also Sale’s injury replacement)

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Trade Duran. To Miami for Braxton Garrett is still relatively close.

    Sign Matt Chapman.

    Sign a TBD RP.

    C - Wong, McGuire
    1b - Devers. Unless you agree with the moronic logic that his contract should keep him at 3b
    2b - Urias. Upgrade is possible. He’s a meh defender
    SS - Story. Probably the Sox best defensive SS since Alex Gonzalez
    3b - Chapman. Would easily be the Sox best defensive 3b in the last half century
    LF - Yoshida
    CF - Rafaela
    RF - Verdugo
    DH - Casas

    SP - Sale, Garrett, Bello, Crawford, Houck
    RP - Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino, Pivetta (also Sale’s injury replacement)
    They are not going to sign Matt Chapman. They are not going to move Raffy to 1B. Casas is the 1B. No on the starting rotation. It’s pretty sad, depressing, and a whole lot of incompetence to be talking about next year when we Should be talking about the Red Sox being in the postseason this year. Oh well better luck next year.

  13. #13
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Most teams sign a few each year, and it's often a good idea.
    I think the first part is overstated a bit.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    With a clean bill of health (relatively speaking) I think that should be.

    Adding two top teir pitchers would be transformative, and ultimately strengthens the bottom of the rotation AND the bullpen.

    If the sophmores take a step forward that team could be very good. I still woulnd't mind seeing a better solution in the OF. I think the team could use a RHH OFer. Maybe bring Duval back if it's reasonable.

    Is Nola really a top tier pitcher?

    His ERA+ over the last 3 years is 103, basically league average.

    He’s also 30 years old, and therefore not likely to get better.

    To me, depends on the deal. 5 years or more at anything over $20mill - hard, hard, hard pass.

    But I wouldn’t mind Nola on a shorter deal. The shorter the better…

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    I think the first part is overstated a bit.
    Not in Bloom’s way of thinking.

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