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Thread: A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

  1. #3946
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Here's where one stat can be dismissed by other stats -- and rational observers can argue...

    Is Ceddanne Rafaela literally worth less than a replacement player this year? Do his overall contributions really affect the Red Sox in a negative way?

    He's made some errors on defense, but anyone who has watched most of the games knows the team D stabilized when he was forced to become the regular shortstop. And while Duran has been surprisingly consistent in the outfield -- 3rd in the AL in dWAR -- Rafaela has already made some plays in CF fans haven't seen since vintage Jackie Bradley Jr.

    With a bat, Ceddanne is still a hacker, but slowly improving. He actually has less strikeouts than Duran, who is 4th in the AL in WAR.

    Rafaela has the most RBIs on a team with a winning record. That right there is a lot better than if the Red Sox replaced him with some guy off the street, or gave his uniform to a poster off talksox (who would probably sell it on eBay -- which automatically makes him a positive).
    I agree. Rafaela seems to be the somewhat rare case of a guy you want on the field every day in spite of the ugly-looking WAR. He has to start pulling that out of negative territory at some point, needless to say.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  2. #3947
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    I agree. Rafaela seems to be the somewhat rare case of a guy you want on the field every day in spite of the ugly-looking WAR. He has to start pulling that out of negative territory at some point, needless to say.
    I also agree. The ESPN WAR for Rafaela is -0.2, but I'm OK with -0.6. As others have said, his range--at both SS and CF--is what has led to 1 or more of his errors. And he still leads the Sox in rbi's with 26.

  3. #3948
    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/...d-of-time.html

    I can remember discussions here of whether “injury prone” is a thing. This guy’s body clearly cannot play anywhere near a full season.

    Wait this actually happened? I suppose nothing is unbelievable today.

    Of course people are injury prone!!!!

    I do think it's worth noting that people can be injury prone for different reasons.

    We are all put together differently. Length of bones can vary, where muscles attach can vary. These things can effect someones flexibility and how certain motions put stress on tendons/ligaments etc etc etc.

    Also, poor training habits and muscular imbalances can be a leading cause to a lot of injuries as well.

    With the later..........we can do something about that. Even before the recent rash of injuries I've been advocating for the Sox to invest more into well qualified strength and conditioning coaches up and down the system.
    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    New Prediction. The Sox will make a major starting pitching acquisition in the 2023/24 offseason.

  4. #3949
    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    Wait this actually happened? I suppose nothing is unbelievable today.

    Of course people are injury prone!!!!

    I do think it's worth noting that people can be injury prone for different reasons.

    We are all put together differently. Length of bones can vary, where muscles attach can vary. These things can effect someones flexibility and how certain motions put stress on tendons/ligaments etc etc etc.

    Also, poor training habits and muscular imbalances can be a leading cause to a lot of injuries as well.

    With the later..........we can do something about that. Even before the recent rash of injuries I've been advocating for the Sox to invest more into well qualified strength and conditioning coaches up and down the system.
    I believe it is a statistical fact of baseball life that chances of going on the IL increase the more times a player goes on the IL. In other words a player on the IL has a greater likelihood of going on the IL again than one who has not gone on the IL.

  5. #3950
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elktonnick View Post
    I believe it is a statistical fact of baseball life that chances of going on the IL increase the more times a player goes on the IL. In other words a player on the IL has a greater likelihood of going on the IL again than one who has not gone on the IL.
    Makes perfect sense, yes.

    The only caveat might be that some injuries are totally fluky, but even then, it probably increases the chances.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

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  6. #3951
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Here's where one stat can be dismissed by other stats -- and rational observers can argue...

    Is Ceddanne Rafaela literally worth less than a replacement player this year? Do his overall contributions really affect the Red Sox in a negative way?

    He's made some errors on defense, but anyone who has watched most of the games knows the team D stabilized when he was forced to become the regular shortstop. And while Duran has been surprisingly consistent in the outfield -- 3rd in the AL in dWAR -- Rafaela has already made some plays in CF fans haven't seen since vintage Jackie Bradley Jr.

    With a bat, Ceddanne is still a hacker, but slowly improving. He actually has less strikeouts than Duran, who is 4th in the AL in WAR.

    Rafaela has the most RBIs on a team with a winning record. That right there is a lot better than if the Red Sox replaced him with some guy off the street, or gave his uniform to a poster off talksox (who would probably sell it on eBay -- which automatically makes him a positive).
    He's certainly made more plays most or no others make than errors, so he is a clear plus on D, at SS and CF.

    His offense is a big negative, and rbis are not something WAR counts. It is also not a skill or something that can be counted on as being repeated, going forward.

    That being said, those RBIs were huge and helped us win, so yes, WAR does not recognize things like that.

    By and large, the other numbers look about right.

    I listed games played to highlight how some of our highest WAR players have half the games as other near them in the team rankings.

    Ref would jump.

    Wong + McGuire would place 5th.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
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  7. #3952
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post

    rbis are not something WAR counts. It is also not a skill or something that can be counted on as being repeated, going forward.

    I love disagreeing with this, but only because I played for decades on special clubs with certain guys that teammates counted on to drive in vital runs -- because those guys often did, more than anyone else. They were usually among the best hitters on the team, but even when surrounded by groups of five or six All-Star bats... let's just say certain individuals had a knack for delivering in big moments.

    Alex Rodriguez had a career BA/OPS of .295/.930 in the regular season, and .259/.822 in a dozen postseasons. He was good in seven of 19 series.

    David Ortiz had a career BA/OPS of .286/.931 in the regular season, and .289/.947 in nine postseasons. He was a beast in nine of 18 series.

    Both were stars; one was a little better at a time of year when it mattered most, while the other got a little worse. But those are just numbers.

    Now ask any Red Sox or Yankee fan who they'd rather have up with the game on the line -- ARod or Big Papi?

  8. #3953
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    I love disagreeing with this, but only because I played for decades on special clubs with certain guys that teammates counted on to drive in vital runs -- because those guys often did, more than anyone else. They were usually among the best hitters on the team, but even when surrounded by groups of five or six All-Star bats... let's just say certain individuals had a knack for delivering in big moments.

    Alex Rodriguez had a career BA/OPS of .295/.930 in the regular season, and .259/.822 in a dozen postseasons. He was good in seven of 19 series.

    David Ortiz had a career BA/OPS of .286/.931 in the regular season, and .289/.947 in nine postseasons. He was a beast in nine of 18 series.

    Both were stars; one was a little better at a time of year when it mattered most, while the other got a little worse. But those are just numbers.

    Now ask any Red Sox or Yankee fan who they'd rather have up with the game on the line -- ARod or Big Papi?
    But there still had to be people on base for any player to drive in.

    Know why Rafaela leads the Sox in RBI this year? He’s come up with more people on base than anyone else on the Sox.

    The reason you can’t really count on RBI is there is nothing about Ortiz or ARod or any premier hitter that guarantees he will come up with people on base. Just like Devers this year…

  9. #3954
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    But there still had to be people on base for any player to drive in.

    Know why Rafaela leads the Sox in RBI this year? He’s come up with more people on base than anyone else on the Sox.

    The reason you can’t really count on RBI is there is nothing about Ortiz or ARod or any premier hitter that guarantees he will come up with people on base. Just like Devers this year…
    "When I'm at bat, I'm in scoring position," said Oscar Gamble.

    His baseball card was a picture of a giant afro, with a face and cap sticking out.

  10. #3955
    Of course, then there's the fact that Raphaela is great to watch, and sports is (or was, I guess) a form of entertainment. I have no interest in seeing him replaced with a .200 hitting journeyman who may have a better dx7wWAR++.
    "Fans have become more entitled than anything. So they're starting to question our motives for the game, or how we approach the game. The ones that do question -- like who are you? Just shut up and watch the game tonight." --Kevin Durant on players' lack of effort in regular season games.

  11. #3956
    Deity vegasbob's Avatar
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    For those expecting the Bryan Mata ( #27 on your depth chart) to be any part of this team competing for a WC (?) , don't count on this poor guy. He is finished.

  12. #3957
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    "When I'm at bat, I'm in scoring position," said Oscar Gamble.

    His baseball card was a picture of a giant afro, with a face and cap sticking out.
    I remember Gamble and his card.

    The man finished his career with 666 RBIs, and then nearly doubled down with 656 runs scored. He’s too evil to quote…

  13. #3958
    another golden sombrero for the juicer last night.

  14. #3959
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    Quote Originally Posted by Randy Red Sox View Post
    another golden sombrero for the juicer last night.
    And one poster on here wanted to lock him up already.

  15. #3960
    Quote Originally Posted by Randy Red Sox View Post
    another golden sombrero for the juicer last night.
    What do you think he's juicing with

    Celery and Kale with some pinneapple?
    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    New Prediction. The Sox will make a major starting pitching acquisition in the 2023/24 offseason.

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