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Thread: A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

  1. #1
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

    The season has begun!

    No doubt, the offseason was full throttle shitty. Much of that was captured on the Part I thread:
    https://www.talksox.com/forum/thread...at-2024-Part-I

    Starting the season on the 60 Day IL:
    Giolito (our biggest addition of the winter)
    Hendriks (acquired more for 2025 and the second half of '24.)
    Murphy

    Starting the season on the 10 Day IL:
    Grissom (may join the team after April 20th)
    Mata (out of options, so the team may try to prolong his rehab)
    Refsnyder (may be back in May)
    Walter (may be added to the 60 Day IL, if a roster move is needed)

    Opening Day 26 Man Roster:
    SP: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck
    RP: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Slaten, Campbell, Joely, Anderson, Weissert
    C: Wong & McGuire
    1B: Casas, Dalbec (3B)
    2B: E Valdez, Reyes (SS)
    3B: Devers
    SS: Story
    LF: Duran
    CF: Rafaela
    RF: O'Neill (LF), Abreu (CF)
    DH: Yoshida

    Some notable minor league depth:
    SP: Criswell, Uwasawa (Not on 40: Gambrell, Fitts) Wikelman
    RP: Bernardino, Kelly, Jacques (Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Benitez)
    C: Heineman (Teel)
    1B: (Kavadas, Jordan)
    2B: DHam (Sogard, Yorke)
    3B: (Meidroth
    SS: DHam (Mayer)
    OF: R Gonzalez (Contreras, Rosier, Anthony)

    When comparing this team to the disappointing 2023 team, it's easy to see losing Sale, Paxton, Turner, Duvall and Dugo as being a big loss, but most of these guys did not play a whole lot and or did not do all that great, when they did play (not Turner.) When looking more closely, we can see many other players who are gone or will not play as much as being more addition by subtraction, such as Kike/Arroyo/Urias/Chang, Tapia, Kluber, Schreiber, Bleier, Brasier, Llovera, Ort and many others. When you add up these guys PAs and IP, it was more significant than we might imagine.

    Looking at the Defense, Offense and Pitching projections:

    Defense (2023 Innings>2024 projected w no injuries)
    C: Wong (940>940), McGuire (430>480)
    1B: Casas (1040>1400), Dalbec (100>30) No Turner
    2B: Grissom (0>1100), EValdez (360>300), Reyes (200>30) No Arroyo/Kike/Urias
    3B: Devers (1290>1400), Dalbec (15>30) No Turner
    SS: Story (310>1300), Reyes (200>130) No Kike/Chang
    LF: Duran (170>1200), Refsnyder (350>130), O'Neill (100) No Yoshida
    CF: Rafaela (120>1000), Abreu 90>430)
    RF: O'Neill (0>1200), Abreu (10>230)

    I see marked improvement on D at SS, 2B, CF and LF.
    I see slight or possible improved D at RF, 1B and maybe 3B, C

    On offense: (2023 Positional OPS> 2024 projected PAs)
    C: .673 Wong 400 & McGuire 300> .700
    1B: .840 Casas 650, Dalbec 50> .875
    2B: .663 Grissom 500, Valdez 150, Reyes 50>.725
    3B: .817 Devers 650, Dalbec 50> .900
    SS: .636 Story 600, Reyes 100> .775
    LF: .799 Duran 450, O'Neill 200, Ref 50> .775
    CF: .827 Rafaela 450, Duran 150, Abreu 100> .725
    RF: .725 O'Neill 400, Abreu 300> .750
    DH: .755 Yoshida 650, O'Neill 50> .775

    I see two positions getting worse, and the others looking pretty good, compared to 2023.

    Pitching:
    This is the hardest area to project. Losing Sale and Paxton from the rotation hurts, and with Gio getting hurt, the replacements are coming from our own system, and some had significant innings in the pen, last season. That makes pen improvement difficult. We may need these GS and IP to have a winning season. (Note: these are not projections but are more like wishes.)

    32/175 Bello
    32/170 Pivetta
    28/150 Crawford
    26/140 Whitlock
    26/140 Houck
    18 GS from Criswell, Anderson and others

    We need top health from Janse and Martin and a full season from Wink and then 2-3 other pen arms must rise to the occasion. We have a lot of arms to choose from, but we can't afford to see 3-4 fail badly as we cycle through to find some that do well. After Jansen, Martin and Wink, we have these guys:
    Campbell
    Slaten
    Joely
    Anderson
    Weissert
    Bernardino
    Kelly
    Mata
    Jacques
    (Not on 40: Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Gambrell, Fitts)

    I may be looking through pink glasses, but I think we should win 81-84 games, this season, despite being in a division with 4 teams projected for more wins.

    Let's see what happens.









    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  2. #2
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    When...

    Grissom comes back: E Valdez to AAA

    Refsnyder: probably trade Ref or send Abreu or Rafaela to AAA.

    Mata (out of options): maybe trade or DFA Mata or send down Weissert or Joely.

    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  3. #3
    When does Bernardino get back to Boston?

  4. #4
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Cook View Post
    When does Bernardino get back to Boston?
    As soon as someone earns a demotion.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    As soon as someone earns a demotion.
    When does joely board the bus to Worcester?

  6. #6
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Cook View Post
    When does joely board the bus to Worcester?
    Weissert may go before the lefty, Joely.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  7. #7
    Legend Nick's Avatar
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    You simply stick Rafaela out on center.

    Ref is a utility piece. I would be pissed if Rafaela is sent down to make a room for Ref.

    Rafaela is our future center fielder. If we can't srick with him this year when we're expected to come in dead last then when when will he get an opportunity?
    I write fictional stories in my spare time. So don't fact check me. Better?

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    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Devers says he's had pain the shoulder for a while now, was playing through it in spring games.

    Not what you want to hear.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

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    All-Star ****THEYANKEES's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Devers says he's had pain the shoulder for a while now, was playing through it in spring games.

    Not what you want to hear.
    when i didn't see him in the starting lineup, i just assumed it was a scheduled rest day Cora had for him.

  10. #10
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ****THEYANKEES View Post
    when i didn't see him in the starting lineup, i just assumed it was a scheduled rest day Cora had for him.
    Boy that's cold.

    We'll all be in mid-season form in no time.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  11. #11
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    I guess one thing that was highlighted in last night's game is that Breslow's plan to sign a situational RH bat in the offseason did not come to fruition...
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

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    Rookie gojohn99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Boy that's cold.

    We'll all be in mid-season form in no time.
    No doubt!

  13. #13
    It's kind of fun to watch a minor league team at the big league level...refreshing...thank god I'm not a season ticket holder.

  14. #14
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    I'm not too worried about our offense, but without Devers, the team suffers.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The season has begun!

    No doubt, the offseason was full throttle shitty. Much of that was captured on the Part I thread:
    https://www.talksox.com/forum/thread...at-2024-Part-I

    Starting the season on the 60 Day IL:
    Giolito (our biggest addition of the winter)
    Hendriks (acquired more for 2025 and the second half of '24.)
    Murphy

    Starting the season on the 10 Day IL:
    Grissom (may join the team after April 20th)
    Mata (out of options, so the team may try to prolong his rehab)
    Refsnyder (may be back in May)
    Walter (may be added to the 60 Day IL, if a roster move is needed)

    Opening Day 26 Man Roster:
    SP: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck
    RP: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Slaten, Campbell, Joely, Anderson, Weissert
    C: Wong & McGuire
    1B: Casas, Dalbec (3B)
    2B: E Valdez, Reyes (SS)
    3B: Devers
    SS: Story
    LF: Duran
    CF: Rafaela
    RF: O'Neill (LF), Abreu (CF)
    DH: Yoshida

    Some notable minor league depth:
    SP: Criswell, Uwasawa (Not on 40: Gambrell, Fitts) Wikelman
    RP: Bernardino, Kelly, Jacques (Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Benitez)
    C: Heineman (Teel)
    1B: (Kavadas, Jordan)
    2B: DHam (Sogard, Yorke)
    3B: (Meidroth
    SS: DHam (Mayer)
    OF: R Gonzalez (Contreras, Rosier, Anthony)

    When comparing this team to the disappointing 2023 team, it's easy to see losing Sale, Paxton, Turner, Duvall and Dugo as being a big loss, but most of these guys did not play a whole lot and or did not do all that great, when they did play (not Turner.) When looking more closely, we can see many other players who are gone or will not play as much as being more addition by subtraction, such as Kike/Arroyo/Urias/Chang, Tapia, Kluber, Schreiber, Bleier, Brasier, Llovera, Ort and many others. When you add up these guys PAs and IP, it was more significant than we might imagine.

    Looking at the Defense, Offense and Pitching projections:

    Defense (2023 Innings>2024 projected w no injuries)
    C: Wong (940>940), McGuire (430>480)
    1B: Casas (1040>1400), Dalbec (100>30) No Turner
    2B: Grissom (0>1100), EValdez (360>300), Reyes (200>30) No Arroyo/Kike/Urias
    3B: Devers (1290>1400), Dalbec (15>30) No Turner
    SS: Story (310>1300), Reyes (200>130) No Kike/Chang
    LF: Duran (170>1200), Refsnyder (350>130), O'Neill (100) No Yoshida
    CF: Rafaela (120>1000), Abreu 90>430)
    RF: O'Neill (0>1200), Abreu (10>230)

    I see marked improvement on D at SS, 2B, CF and LF.
    I see slight or possible improved D at RF, 1B and maybe 3B, C

    On offense: (2023 Positional OPS> 2024 projected PAs)
    C: .673 Wong 400 & McGuire 300> .700
    1B: .840 Casas 650, Dalbec 50> .875
    2B: .663 Grissom 500, Valdez 150, Reyes 50>.725
    3B: .817 Devers 650, Dalbec 50> .900
    SS: .636 Story 600, Reyes 100> .775
    LF: .799 Duran 450, O'Neill 200, Ref 50> .775
    CF: .827 Rafaela 450, Duran 150, Abreu 100> .725
    RF: .725 O'Neill 400, Abreu 300> .750
    DH: .755 Yoshida 650, O'Neill 50> .775

    I see two positions getting worse, and the others looking pretty good, compared to 2023.

    Pitching:
    This is the hardest area to project. Losing Sale and Paxton from the rotation hurts, and with Gio getting hurt, the replacements are coming from our own system, and some had significant innings in the pen, last season. That makes pen improvement difficult. We may need these GS and IP to have a winning season. (Note: these are not projections but are more like wishes.)

    32/175 Bello
    32/170 Pivetta
    28/150 Crawford
    26/140 Whitlock
    26/140 Houck
    18 GS from Criswell, Anderson and others

    We need top health from Janse and Martin and a full season from Wink and then 2-3 other pen arms must rise to the occasion. We have a lot of arms to choose from, but we can't afford to see 3-4 fail badly as we cycle through to find some that do well. After Jansen, Martin and Wink, we have these guys:
    Campbell
    Slaten
    Joely
    Anderson
    Weissert
    Bernardino
    Kelly
    Mata
    Jacques
    (Not on 40: Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Gambrell, Fitts)

    I may be looking through pink glasses, but I think we should win 81-84 games, this season, despite being in a division with 4 teams projected for more wins.

    Let's see what happens.









    Amazingly comprehensive laydown, thanks. About right, I think--not especially optimistic, as it should not be.

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