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Thread: Analyzing the Santana deal

  1. #1
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    Analyzing the Santana deal

    Well, for once, both my Yankee brethren and the rest of you Sox fans can actually breathe a sigh of relief on an off-season move. Here is my take on the Santana deal, the winners and losers, in order. Let me know what you think.

    Winner [huge]: Santana

    Everyone is missing this one. First of all, the Mets didn't give up anything of any value to get the best pitcher on the planet, so his new team is strong and not gutted. Secondly, he goes from what was the most competitive division in baseball [this honor has returned to the AL East after this trade] to one of the weakest offensive divisions in baseball. Also, the switch to the NL from the AL will help him, as well as moving to a very strong pitcher's park. Pedro went from Boston to New York, and his ERA dropped a point. Expect Santana to do the same, and win the NL Cy Young in 2008.

    Winner [big]: Mets

    The Mets got who they wanted, and Minaya just guaranteed himself an extension. They gave up a very weak class of prospects relatively speaking to get the best pitcher in the game. Minaya bided his time, and hoped and prayed the Yankees were out of it. Expect Minaya to send Cashman a case of Crystal for letting Santana go. After this season, he may even be offering Cashman a job.

    Winner: Indians, Tigers

    Everyone is focusing on the Yankees/Red Sox winners, but it's actually these two teams that will benefit the most. Santana would face them an average of four times each a season. By removing Santana from the equation, it lessens Minnesota's impact on the race, and giving the loser for the division an better chance of making the wild card.

    Winner: Red Sox

    I still believe, and always believed, the Red Sox never wanted Santana. They just didn't want to see him go the Yankees. Their offers got better as the Yankees offers got better, and when the Yankees announced they were out, the Red Sox pulled Lester out of the deal, thereby guaranteeing Santana would go to the Mets. As good as Santana is, a lefty fly ball pitcher in Fenway is not a blue print for success, as his poor record at Fenway helps attest.

    Winner...and also loser...maybe: Yankees

    Cashman has wagered his job on this move. If he had traded for Santana, even against his wishes, he had made it very obvious in the media that he was against the deal, and could take credit for it if it worked out, and could have teflon-ed his way out of blame if it didn't. It is my opinion that the Yankees had made the best formal offer, which they later withdrew. In short, the Yankees should have stayed in it, and pulled the trigger. The NY media will remind Cashman of his failures if Santana racks up wins [which he will in the weak NL East] and Huhges doesn't pan out. If Hughes turns out to be an All-Star this season, then the Yankees are big winners. If he turns out to be a back of the rotation starter, or if the Yankees fail to make the playoffs this year, the Yankees are big losers, and Cashman is out of a job.

    Loser [HUGE]: Twins

    An absolutely asinine deal for the Twins. It is indefensible. First year GM Smith of the Twins has been a GM for two years too long. Regardless of which offer you think is best, there is little doubt that that the Yankees offer, as well as both Red Sox offers [Lester offer, Ellsbury offer] were far and away better than what the Mets offered and the Twins eventually took. Being in a bad position, as Gammons has alluded to on ESPN isn't the point. He had three better offers, and overplayed his hand. Smith has now edged Boras as idiot of the 2008 off-season.
    "Every year, the infielders move a step back because you have lost some speed, and the outfielders move in a step because you have lost some of your power. When they can shake hands, you're finished."

  2. #2
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    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    I think you also have to add this to the Twins being losers...the fact that if they had just kept Santana, their rotation would have been something to deal with. Let's not forget, they get Liriano back.

  3. #3

    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    carl pohlad is a douchebag

  4. #4

    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    Stupid, stupid move. They would have gotten a 1st and a sandwich for him at the end of the year and they traded him for THESE guys?

  5. #5

    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Paradisecity;312977;
    Stupid, stupid move. They would have gotten a 1st and a sandwich for him at the end of the year and they traded him for THESE guys?
    From BP chat yesterday:

    Rany Jazayerli: Someone should take the draft data that I published a few years ago and use it to come up with an expected value for a Type A free agent, i.e. the expected value of the draft picks that come from a Type A free agent leaving. We'd have to figure out where those picks usually come in the draft - you're guaranteed a supplemental first rounder (about pick #35), but the other pick could be as high as #16, and as low as the middle of the second round.

    My guess is that the PECOTA expected future values of Gomez/Guerra/Mulvey/Humber would exceed the value of two draft picks. But add in a season's worth of Santana, and you might very well come out ahead by keeping Johan around. You can always change your mind in July.
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ch...php?chatId=422

    Note that he's not mentioned salary, just player values: if you include the high salary that Santana would earn in 2008, it definitely shifts in favor of making a trade, whether now or in July. (One could check that using MORP figures when PECOTA comes out in a few days.)

    It's not that the trade was worse than keeping Santana, it's that the trade was so much worse than what the Twins could have done had they traded Santana in December. :dunno:

  6. #6
    Evil Emperor
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    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    also interesting to note when discussing the Yankees in this equation, is that they could have had Santana WITHOUT giving up Hughes as Smith called Cash on Monday and offered Santana for Melky, Kennedy, and another prospect. My main objection to getting Santana was giving up Hughes..Melky too, but mainly Hughes. If the Yankee rotation fails to succeed this year it may ABSOLUTELY cost Ca$h his job...

    http://www.northjersey.com/sports/me...n_Santana.html

  7. #7
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    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    Quote Originally Posted by 26 to 6;313004;
    also interesting to note when discussing the Yankees in this equation, is that they could have had Santana WITHOUT giving up Hughes as Smith called Cash on Monday and offered Santana for Melky, Kennedy, and another prospect. My main objection to getting Santana was giving up Hughes..Melky too, but mainly Hughes. If the Yankee rotation fails to succeed this year it may ABSOLUTELY cost Ca$h his job...

    http://www.northjersey.com/sports/me...n_Santana.html
    wait we had a chance to get Johan for Ian and Melky and we didn't pull the trigger??????

  8. #8
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    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    Quote Originally Posted by He Hate Me;313007;
    wait we had a chance to get Johan for Ian and Melky and we didn't pull the trigger??????
    Cashman loves the kids - and no it is not like Rep. Mark Foley loves the kids.

    I believe report says it included another prospect so it depends who that prospect is. Even if it is Austin Jackson - he should have pulled the triggar.

  9. #9
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    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    What a dope. I am not high on Kennedy, and I'm not high on Melky. We could have wrapped up the AL East with this move, and we didn't because Cashman wants to say that he built the Yankees up from scratch. We should have fired his ass long ago. Kennedy might...just might....be a #3 pitcher...and that's a stretch.

    Had I known that before my post, I would have put the Yankees in the position of BIG LOSERS.

    What a dope.
    "Every year, the infielders move a step back because you have lost some speed, and the outfielders move in a step because you have lost some of your power. When they can shake hands, you're finished."

  10. #10

    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    I read that too. Melky, Kennedy and a lower level prospect (potentially Betances) for Santana. The one saving grace for Cashman in this one is that Hal was against this from the beginning as well strictly from a money standpoint. And as the yankees have seen, dealing away the farm for Johan is not necessarily in our best interests. Regardless, the fact that Hughes and Joba were out of it, makes this a bit more dicey. But, putting all your eggs in Johan's basket is a tough call, since he is a young pitcher with a lot of tread on the tires. And one injury could make him the highest paid bust in the game. In the end, we have to take a wait and see on this one.
    Hal sucks

  11. #11

    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    oh, and this isnt a deal to be evaluated after 2008. This is a deal best evaluated halfway through his 7-8 yr deal. If Johan gives 4 yrs of top production without injury, then this hurts us.
    Hal sucks

  12. #12
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    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch;313010;
    I read that too. Melky, Kennedy and a lower level prospect (potentially Betances) for Santana. The one saving grace for Cashman in this one is that Hal was against this from the beginning as well strictly from a money standpoint. And as the yankees have seen, dealing away the farm for Johan is not necessarily in our best interests. Regardless, the fact that Hughes and Joba were out of it, makes this a bit more dicey. But, putting all your eggs in Johan's basket is a tough call, since he is a young pitcher with a lot of tread on the tires. And one injury could make him the highest paid bust in the game. In the end, we have to take a wait and see on this one.
    if we hadn't signed A-Rod, we coulda given that money to Johan. then hal would have nothing to say about it, and we have money glaore coming off the books next year.

    bah

  13. #13
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    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    Quote Originally Posted by das11209;313008;
    Cashman loves the kids - and no it is not like Rep. Mark Foley loves the kids.

    I believe report says it included another prospect so it depends who that prospect is. Even if it is Austin Jackson - he should have pulled the triggar.
    i dont care if it was Horne + jackson. he shoulda pulled the trigger.

  14. #14

    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    Quote Originally Posted by He Hate Me;313014;
    if we hadn't signed A-Rod, we coulda given that money to Johan.
    You're not insinuating that the Yankees have grown payroll conscious, are you?

  15. #15
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    Re: Analyzing the Santana deal

    Jacko, are you nuts? This is the best pitcher in the game! This is like saying you don't want Angelina Jolie because she slept with Brad Pitt.

    Kennedy will NEVER be as good as Santana is from this point forward. Ever. Melky is the most overrated CF in the AL.

    Let me ask two questions here:

    1) For Jacko: Do the Yankees beat the Indians if we had the extra home game?

    2) For Red Sox fans: Over the course of the regular season, does Santana in pinstripes make up the difference in the standings?

    I think the answer to both is YES.

    Cashman should be fired. NOW.
    "Every year, the infielders move a step back because you have lost some speed, and the outfielders move in a step because you have lost some of your power. When they can shake hands, you're finished."

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