To date, 19 players in MLB have been signed to contracts valued at $200million or more.
Of these 19, 7 of them started in 2019 or will start in 2020 (Trout, Harper, Machado, Cole, Rendon, Arenado, Strasburg). So much for market correction, huh?
To date, only one player (Alex Rodriguez on his second deal) has completed a $200+ mill contract with his signing team.
Of the other 11, 6 of them have been traded mid-contract:
ARod - signed with Texas, traded to Yankees
Fielder - signed with Detroit, traded to Texas
Stanton - signed with Florida/Miami, traded to NY Yankees
Greinke - signed with Arizona, traded to Houston
Cano - signed with Seattle, traded to NY Mets
Price - signed with Boston, traded to LA Dodgers.
So that means 12 players are still playing out a $200mill contract with their signing team (the 7 above, plus Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw did opt out of his original 7 year $215mill deal, but signed a 3 year $93mill deal with the same team.)
If history is any indication, at least 6 and possibly 7 of these 12 players will be dealt before their deals expire. And one of them won't be Pujols, who has an NTC and a contract clause that he makes $100 million if he never wears another uniform within 10 years after his contract expires, which basically means the Angels are paying him to wear an Angels cap in his Cooperstown induction. (Although I thought Cooperstown chose the cap? Either way, Pujols is not likely to risk $100 mil by being traded.)
Miguel Cabrera is also pretty unlikely to be traded, as he is a complete shell of his former self. But you never know if he might be included merely as a salary dump.
So of the remaining 11 (Trout, Harper, Machado, Cole, Rendon, Arenado, Strasburg, Cabrera, Votto, Kershaw, Scherzer), which 6-7 are the most likely to be traded?
Arenado certainly feels like the most obvious, as Colorado has reportedly already explored potential trades. Besides Pujols and Cabrera, Scherzer and Kershaw are also among the least likely, if only because their contracts expire after 2021 and therefore have the least amount of time to be traded.
I think Machado is a lock to be traded at some point as well, if only because he will be more movable than any other big contract in small market San Diego.
To date, no $200mill contract has been traded for another $200mill contract,which would be cool.
But if 6 get traded, that does mean Trout is a likely trade candidate at some point. ..