A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

For years I started threads at the Globe's Red Sox Front Burner Forum titled "A Realistic Look at ...." I hope I can continue the tradition here. Here's an updated look at the last one I posted on that site:

Regardless of what many Sox fans might believe, the Red Sox have a restricted budget. The sky is NOT the limit. Henry has allowed DD to go over the luxury tax limit, but I seriously doubt that will last going forward (at least by a significant amount). To be realistic, I think we should hold all suggested trades, signings and moves to the standard of not going over the limit by more than about $10M. With that in mind, here is how the luxury tax budget numbers look as of now: under contract (luxury tax not 2016 salary):

$187.8M Total

$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $16M Ortiz, $13.75M Pedroia, $13M Buchholz, $10.5M Kimbrell, $10.25M Castillo, $9M Uehara, $6.5M Young, $6.2M Craig, $3.6M Hannigan, $3.375M Tazawa, $2.6M Kelly, $1.25M Ross
(Note: Craig's contract does not count on the luxury tax budget, if he remains off the 40 man roster, so the luxury number is really $181.2M)

The 25 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Holt, JBJ, Workman (DL), Bogaerts, Brentz, Betts, Layne, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Rutledge, Cuevas

Add about $14M for these 25 players and the player payroll budget (luxury tax) equals about:

$195M

Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is...

$206M

That leaves us about $17M over the luxury tax limit without counting Craig's $6.2M payroll tax number. Looking at 2017, we will not be committed to paying Ortiz $16M, Uehara $9M and Tazawa $3.4M. We have options on Buchholz $13.5M and Hanigan $3.75M. That leaves us at about $29M to replace these players, not counting the expected big rise in the luxury tax limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

Feel free to comment on my 25 and 40 man roster projections and anything else that has to do with the Red Sox.

Let's keep politics and personal attacks off this thread.

More to come. Thanks!

Sox4ever

[a700hitter]

For years I started threads at the Globe's Red Sox Front Burner Forum titled "A Realistic Look at ...." I hope I can continue the tradition here. Here's an updated look at the last one I posted on that site:

Regardless of what many Sox fans might believe, the Red Sox have a restricted budget. The sky is NOT the limit. Henry has allowed DD to go over the luxury tax limit, but I seriously doubt that will last going forward (at least by a significant amount). To be realistic, I think we should hold all suggested trades, signings and moves to the standard of not going over the limit by more than about $10M. With that in mind, here is how the luxury tax budget numbers look as of now: under contract (luxury tax not 2016 salary):

$187.8M Total

$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $16M Ortiz, $13.75M Pedroia, $13M Buchholz, $10.5M Kimbrell, $10.25M Castillo, $9M Uehara, $6.5M Young, $6.2M Craig, $3.6M Hannigan, $3.375M Tazawa, $2.6M Kelly, $1.25M Ross
(Note: Craig's contract does not count on the luxury tax budget, if he remains off the 40 man roster, so the luxury number is really $181.2M)

The 25 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Holt, JBJ, Workman (DL), Bogaerts, Brentz, Betts, Layne, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Rutledge, Cuevas

Add about $14M for these 25 players and the player payroll budget (luxury tax) equals about:

$195M

Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is...

$206M

That leaves us about $17M over the luxury tax limit without counting Craig's $6.2M payroll tax number. Looking at 2017, we will not be committed to paying Ortiz $16M, Uehara $9M and Tazawa $3.4M. We have options on Buchholz $13.5M and Hanigan $3.75M. That leaves us at about $29M to replace these players, not counting the expected big rise in the luxury tax limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.

Feel free to comment on my 25 and 40 man roster projections and anything else that has to do with the Red Sox.

Let's keep politics and personal attacks off this thread.

More to come. Thanks!

Sox4ever

For all the talk by the FO about not wanting to commit big contracts to aging pitchers and to look for value contracts, they have done a terrible job at getting value. They have loaded up a bloated payroll with worthless assets. Few of those contracts have any value as assets in a trade. Craig's and Panda's contracts look like sunk costs. We will get nothing in return for either of them -- not $ or talent. I can't getting back more than a fraction of Castillo's contract. They will need to clear a lot of payroll before Betts and XB come up for Arbitration. That will no be easy to do, and it will impact whether we can acquire a #2 pitcher.

[Kingface]

Well.........Let me preface this by saying I was (so far) very wrong about Hanley at 1B. Could we have found our 1Baseman for the next few years in him and not have to worry about 1B. DH will be easier and cheaper to replace then 1B. I think using the DH spot as a place to give some regulars a day off may be beneficial. If Pablo can get his head out of his ample butt.....could he maybe 'platoon' at DH and 3B with Shaw next year? A lot of the offensive holes we have could just be filled from within.....especially with Benintendi and Moncada tearing it up......

I worry more about pitching........would love to see them put resources together for a #2 and another arm in the BP...... I would do that with available cash and maybe a trade with our minor league depth.

[a700hitter]

Well.........Let me preface this by saying I was (so far) very wrong about Hanley at 1B. Could we have found our 1Baseman for the next few years in him and not have to worry about 1B. DH will be easier and cheaper to replace then 1B. I think using the DH spot as a place to give some regulars a day off may be beneficial. If Pablo can get his head out of his ample butt.....could he maybe 'platoon' at DH and 3B with Shaw next year? A lot of the offensive holes we have could just be filled from within.....especially with Benintendi and Moncada tearing it up......

I worry more about pitching........would love to see them put resources together for a #2 and another arm in the BP...... I would do that with available cash and maybe a trade with our minor league depth.

Especially since the organization's weak spot is drafting and developing top pitchers. We have plenty of positional talent in the organization to put together attractive packages.

[Kingface]

Exactly.........I hate to say it but I have the horrible feeling they will find a way to mess with Espinoza. I think we're cursed in regards to pitcher developement! Anybody have any idea who could be available by trade or FA? Way too early....I know.....but could be interesting. I think we need to get off the 'let's trade for Gray or Sale ideas. These are teams that are trying to BUILD around these great young pitchers.....not do the Sox favors by trading them for unproven lower level talent.

[Kimmi]

Exactly.........I hate to say it but I have the horrible feeling they will find a way to mess with Espinoza. I think we're cursed in regards to pitcher developement! Anybody have any idea who could be available by trade or FA? Way too early....I know.....but could be interesting. I think we need to get off the 'let's trade for Gray or Sale ideas. These are teams that are trying to BUILD around these great young pitchers.....not do the Sox favors by trading them for unproven lower level talent.

The Sox, recognizing their weakness in developing pitchers, hired Brian Bannister to be the Director of Pitching Analytics and Development. Rich Hill is supposedly a Bannister "product". I don't think the Sox are going to mess Espinoza up, and I think we'll see better success in drafting and developing pitchers in the coming years.

[wyo-sox]

Well.........Let me preface this by saying I was (so far) very wrong about Hanley at 1B. Could we have found our 1Baseman for the next few years in him and not have to worry about 1B. DH will be easier and cheaper to replace then 1B. I think using the DH spot as a place to give some regulars a day off may be beneficial. If Pablo can get his head out of his ample butt.....could he maybe 'platoon' at DH and 3B with Shaw next year? A lot of the offensive holes we have could just be filled from within.....especially with Benintendi and Moncada tearing it up......

I worry more about pitching........would love to see them put resources together for a #2 and another arm in the BP...... I would do that with available cash and maybe a trade with our minor league depth.

I think we may have our 1baseman. Who would have thought the most solid part of this team would be the corners manned by Shaw and Ramirez?

[Maxbialystock]

I think we may have our 1baseman. Who would have thought the most solid part of this team would be the corners manned by Shaw and Ramirez?

Defensively, Hanley is fine, but 1b should produce a good hitter. Last year and this year not so great at the plate.

[moonslav59]

I think we may have our 1baseman. Who would have thought the most solid part of this team would be the corners manned by Shaw and Ramirez?

It's still one of the weakest "part of the team".

Our OF is better.

Our middle IF is better.

I'd even say our SP'ing is better.

Our pen is worse due to injuries to Carson Smith, Uehara and RP'ers still trying to regain form after injury (Kimbrel, Taz....)

We had to go out and trade for Hill, so we could platoon Shaw at 3B. HanRam has had multiple stretches of difficulty, then he has a huge game here or there. Just take away his best 2 games (5 HRs in 2 games), and his numbers would look pretty bad for a 1Bman.

[oldtimer]

It's still one of the weakest "part of the team".

Our OF is better.

Our middle IF is better.

I'd even say our SP'ing is better.

Our pen is worse due to injuries to Carson Smith, Uehara and RP'ers still trying to regain form after injury (Kimbrel, Taz....)

We had to go out and trade for Hill, so we could platoon Shaw at 3B. HanRam has had multiple stretches of difficulty, then he has a huge game here or there. Just take away his best 2 games (5 HRs in 2 games), and his numbers would look pretty bad for a 1Bman.

Hanley's hitting has been an enigma. As you say, he goes off here and there but in between looks weak and turns into a rally killer. What is the difference when he hit? Is it a weak opponent pitcher? Is it that he gets angry or focused? His body of work hasn't been very good for a first baseman and is likely to get worse as he ages. When you pay a guy $22 million a year, you should expect a very effective hitter and decent field player. We have gotten better play at first then his experiment in the outfield but his hitting remains in question.

[moonslav59]

Hanley's hitting has been an enigma. As you say, he goes off here and there but in between looks weak and turns into a rally killer. What is the difference when he hit? Is it a weak opponent pitcher? Is it that he gets angry or focused? His body of work hasn't been very good for a first baseman and is likely to get worse as he ages. When you pay a guy $22 million a year, you should expect a very effective hitter and decent field player. We have gotten better play at first then his experiment in the outfield but his hitting remains in question.

I don't think we need to replace HanRam to be highly competitive next year, but I'm not projecting him to be above #15 at 1B WAR next year. He'll probably be near #20.

With Moncada getting very close at 3B, a slight chance of Pablo's pride kicking in and him returning to his form of several years ago, and Sam Travis returning from injury aall joining Shaw and Hanram in competition for 3 openings (3B, 1B and DH) maybe we'll be fine there. I certainly feel better here than with the pitching staff.

[Spudboy]

Hanley's hitting has been an enigma. As you say, he goes off here and there but in between looks weak and turns into a rally killer. What is the difference when he hit? Is it a weak opponent pitcher? Is it that he gets angry or focused? His body of work hasn't been very good for a first baseman and is likely to get worse as he ages. When you pay a guy $22 million a year, you should expect a very effective hitter and decent field player. We have gotten better play at first then his experiment in the outfield but his hitting remains in question.

Many of us who raged on him last year are just relieved that he not only has not shit all over himself at 1st base but that he actually looks pretty good there most of the time.

However, we still have not seen a sustained run of offensive output from someone who was one of the best RHH in the game.

Maybe those days are gone? I hope not.

[User Name?]

The Sox don't need a standout #2 this year, and they don't need it for next year. They need health from the rotation, a reliable pitcher, health from the BP (add another live arm if they have to replace Koji) and a manager who does not have his head firmly up his ass.

The DH/LF conondrum can be sorted internally (Travis looks like he's just about MLB ready offensively, and one of Moncada/Benintendi will probably be ready for next year). As many people have famously said over the years: "It's the pitching, stupid".

[moonslav59]

Other than Ortiz, our starting positional players are all locked up for 3 or more years (counting 2015):

7 years: Price (with 3 year opt out)
6 years: Pedroia
5 years: Sandoval (team option after 4)Castillo, Betts, JBJ, Vazquez,Smith Wright, Elias, Layne
4 years: Ramirez (vesting option after 3), Porcello, Bogaerts, Holt, Rutledge, Workman
3 years: Kimbrel (team option after 2), Kelly, Ross
2 years: Young, Hanigan (team option after this year)
1 year: Ortiz, Uehara, Tazawa

First arb year not established: ERod, Swihart, T Shaw, Barnes, N Ramirez and everyone else on the 40 man roster not listed here.

In some ways, it's nice to know you don't have any big positional player shoes to fill after Big Papi this winter, but with sunken cost players like Sandoval, Craig and maybe Castillo, HanRam and possibly others, it's hard to not think our budget problems might get worse before they get better.

Having Moncada, Benintendi, Travis, Devers and some others on the horizon may help us avoid needing free agents to fill the gaps, but who knows at this point?

With our pitching staff, we have a lot more flexibility, but also a lot more need. We can't really count on any of our younger pitchers except for maybe ERod and eventually Espinoza. Porcello could turn into a sunken cost or a huge overpay. Buch's slot will be open this winter or next. Kelly is still largely a question mark. Losing Uehara and Tazawa is going to be hard to deal with.

I think the biggest financial expenditures in the near future will have to be on our pitching staff. We're going to have to make do with our line-up for now and hope our top prospects rise quickly to replace the flame-outs and bums.

[Spudboy]

Why are you assuming that both Koji and Tazawa will be gone after 2016?