A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Asking a serious question of when was the last time any of your BTV suggested trades actually happened was not complaining. Just curious.

I answered. I don't care. I don't make most of them to try and predict a trade, and many I would not make as the Sox GM. I do it to see what the approximate value it might take to give to get a person of my interest or someone else's.

Why should I care, under those circumstances.

If I had to guess, since the site has not been around all that long, maybe 0 to 1. I know I got a few right before BTV.

I only do Sox trade suggestions, and since we've made close to zero trades, my guess is zero.

I did get the signing of Cody Ross right. Does that count?

[mvp 78]

In '22 and '23, the answer is obvious -- according to any media covering the club, including Papelbon in the NESN studio.

But the Sox didn't fall in '21 until the postseason, when the lack of bullpen reinforcements -- compared to the team that won the pennant -- kept them from the World Series.

A better deadline than Robles and Davis may have put them over the top!

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

If we guessed on the prospects DD acquired from Ben (and Theo,) we'd have been wrong on almost everyone, except Devers and maybe Casas.

If I had to guess, now...

Out of Mayer, Anthony, Teel and Bleis: 1-2 might be stars and 3-4 might be FT players. A chance 3 are stars.

Out of Rafaela, Yorke, Perales, Wikelman. Abreu, Murphy, Valdez and Gambrell: 1 might become a star, maybe 0, and maybe 1-3 become everyday players.

I like this group: Cespedes, Zanetello, Joh Garcia, Monegro, Anderson and maybe Romero to produce 1-2 stars and 2-3 everyday players.

I'm an admitted homer.

Nothing wrong with optimism on prospects, especially nowadays when fans can actually see them perform (and assess/project), with so much live or recorded video available.

Speaking of DD acquisitions, it's hard not to look at the Phillies' success and these free agent signings: Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos, Schwarber, Turner (even Kimbrel/Strahm this October). I'm prob forgetting some, or maybe some signed pre-DD, but are any Philly fans complaining their front office has saddled them with albatross contracts that will haunt them years from now?

[dgalehouse]

Nothing wrong with optimism on prospects, especially nowadays when fans can actually see them perform (and assess/project), with so much live or recorded video available.

Speaking of DD acquisitions, it's hard not to look at the Phillies' success and these free agent signings: Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos, Schwarber, Turner (even Kimbrel/Strahm this October). I'm prob forgetting some, or maybe some signed pre-DD, but are any Philly fans complaining their front office has saddled them with albatross contracts that will haunt them years from now?

Phillies fans will fill Citizens Bank Park tonight and have a great time cheering on their team. But little do they know that three years from now, their farm will be as bare as Lady Godiva's behind. No Zanatellos or Manegros to get excited about. Have to pity the fools.

[Old Red]

I answered. I don't care. I don't make most of them to try and predict a trade, and many I would not make as the Sox GM. I do it to see what the approximate value it might take to give to get a person of my interest or someone else's.

Why should I care, under those circumstances.

If I had to guess, since the site has not been around all that long, maybe 0 to 1. I know I got a few right before BTV.

I only do Sox trade suggestions, and since we've made close to zero trades, my guess is zero.

I did get the signing of Cody Ross right. Does that count?

I’ve actually liked some of your trade suggestions, but like I said just curious.

[moonslav59]

Nothing wrong with optimism on prospects, especially nowadays when fans can actually see them perform (and assess/project), with so much live or recorded video available.

Speaking of DD acquisitions, it's hard not to look at the Phillies' success and these free agent signings: Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos, Schwarber, Turner (even Kimbrel/Strahm this October). I'm prob forgetting some, or maybe some signed pre-DD, but are any Philly fans complaining their front office has saddled them with albatross contracts that will haunt them years from now?

Not many were complaining about DD until maybe 2019. A few were projecting "trouble ahead" ( I won't say the "C word.")

[moonslav59]

Nothing wrong with optimism on prospects, especially nowadays when fans can actually see them perform (and assess/project), with so much live or recorded video available.

How many do you think will be stars or everyday players?

I hope it's more than Houck, Dalbec and Crawford in the 5 year period starting with Casas & Bello.

[notin]

Woodruff's career is most likely over.

Maybe. It’s definitely over in Milwaukee…

[notin]

Asking a serious question of when was the last time any of your BTV suggested trades actually happened was not complaining. Just curious.

Asking a serious question - why do you belittle baseball fans for talking about baseball and for getting excited when their team is doing well?

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

How many do you think will be stars or everyday players?

I hope it's more than Houck, Dalbec and Crawford in the 5 year period starting with Casas & Bello.

From this highly-touted group, I'd say four regulars, who if they hang in there long enough should have two All-Stars (that it, two selected to an AS team, but without MVP votes or HOF WAR).

The odds are so against an actual group making the majors together in two or three-year spans, and then all becoming immediate All-Stars or even Rookie of the Years...

... like the Braves: Acuna, Albies, Riley, Harris etc.

Plus, though the Sox have a history of homegrown stars, there are plenty of overrated prospects who also fizzle out, once they arrive in the MLB (and leagues develop "books" on them).

Guys that are really young have plenty of time to develop talents, but that's also extra time to pick up bad habits, unhealthy lifestyles, and subsequent injuries that may hamper progress.

To that end, there's something to be said for drafting solid college stars like Matt McLain -- he may have a lower ceiling than 5-tool teenagers, but there's a higher floor to count on...

[notin]

Nothing wrong with optimism on prospects, especially nowadays when fans can actually see them perform (and assess/project), with so much live or recorded video available.

Speaking of DD acquisitions, it's hard not to look at the Phillies' success and these free agent signings: Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos, Schwarber, Turner (even Kimbrel/Strahm this October). I'm prob forgetting some, or maybe some signed pre-DD, but are any Philly fans complaining their front office has saddled them with albatross contracts that will haunt them years from now?

DD only signed Schwarber, Castellanos and Turner. And there probably are more of them than you can possibly imagine.

Of course we’re talking about Philadelphia sports fans here. They’re going to complain no matter what…

[moonslav59]

From this highly-touted group, I'd say four regulars, who if they hang in there long enough should have two All-Stars (that it, two selected to an AS team, but without MVP votes or HOF WAR).

The odds are so against an actual group making the majors together in two or three-year spans, and then all becoming immediate All-Stars or even Rookie of the Years...

... like the Braves: Acuna, Albies, Riley, Harris etc.

Plus, though the Sox have a history of homegrown stars, there are plenty of overrated prospects who also fizzle out, once they arrive in the MLB (and leagues develop "books" on them).

Guys that are really young have plenty of time to develop talents, but that's also extra time to pick up bad habits, unhealthy lifestyles, and subsequent injuries that may hamper progress.

To that end, there's something to be said for drafting solid college stars like Matt McLain -- he may have a lower ceiling than 5-tool teenagers, but there's a higher floor to count on...

Fair enough. I guess, overall, I'd project 3-4 will be stars (more likely 2 than 5) and 3-4 more will be decent everyday play types (better than replacement players.)

[Randy Red Sox]

Phillies fans will fill Citizens Bank Park tonight and have a great time cheering on their team. But little do they know that three years from now, their farm will be as bare as Lady Godiva's behind. No Zanatellos or Manegros to get excited about. Have to pity the fools.

or maybe DD has/will do what he did in Boston. Keep the prospects that are really good and trade the ones that are at least over-rated.

[Randy Red Sox]

DD only signed Schwarber, Castellanos and Turner. And there probably are more of them than you can possibly imagine.

Of course we’re talking about Philadelphia sports fans here. They’re going to complain no matter what…

unlike Boston fans

[moonslav59]

DD only signed Schwarber, Castellanos and Turner. And there probably are more of them than you can possibly imagine.

$Millions
300/11 Trea Turner
115/5 Realmuto
100/5 Castellanos
79/4 Schwarber
72/4 T Walker
40/3 Z Eflin
28/2 Gregorius
17/2 J Segura
17/2 Neris
15/2 M Strahm
13/1 Syndergaard
10/1 Knebel
10/1 Kimbrel
10/1 D Robertson
10/1 K Gibson
10/2 B Miller
9/1 McCutchen
6/1 BHand, J Familia, Arrieta & Archie Bradley
5/1 Ian Kennedy

Must be nice to have a bunch of $10M/1 deals ranked 12th and lower on your signings list over 3 years.